Lombardi: Bucs’ margin for error to beat the Chiefs is small, but not impossible
by
Michael Lombardi
Originally Posted by :
Since walking off the field on Nov. 10, 2019, after messing up a potential tying field-goal attempt and losing to the Tennessee Titans, 35-32, the Kansas City Chiefs have won 25 out of their next 27 games (counting playoffs). One of those losses was a game they didn’t try to win — a season finale loss to the Chargers — which means in the last 26 games, the Chiefs are 25-1. Their only true loss was an eight-point defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders. Eighteen of the 25 wins have been by a touchdown or more (six points), seven by five points or less, and the first Chargers game of 2020 went to overtime.
Over the past year and a half, the Chiefs have not won, they have dominated. Even in the seven wins by less than six points, the Chiefs have been in total control, only allowing their opponent a chance to keep the game close in the fourth. Over this amazing display of football, the Chiefs have accomplished what is most essential about any game: the ability to control the game and the lead. They never look like they struggle to gain traction or show their dominance. What is most impressive is the Chiefs can play any style and win. They had the ball for only 21:59 vs. the Panthers and still scored 33 points and won.
Conversely, they had the ball 41:14 vs. the Saints, running 92 plays and won by three, but that game was not as close as the score. The Chiefs are similar to the great Chicago Bulls teams when they had Michael Jordan, winning in any style or manner.
You want to play uptempo, they can handle it. You want to play half-court, no problem — and they can win that way.
Essentially the Bulls and now the Chiefs tell their opponents to pick their poison, and we can adapt — the mark of a great, great team.
So how do the Bucs approach this game? If there is no clearcut formula to win, what is the sense of playing for the Bucs? As former Giants, Jets, Patriots and Cowboy Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells learned from his high school coach, Mickey Cochrane, there is always a pathway to victory in any game. First, you must identify the core elements, plan perfectly and execute as well as you have all season.
This is no small challenge for the Bucs; they must borrow from game plans from other teams, then not make one mistake and play four quarters of their best football.
Teams must understand a couple of critical factors that break conventional wisdom before devising their game plan. First and foremost, forget that this will be a 12-possession game for both sides. If a team gives the Chiefs 12 possessions, it will lose by 20. It cannot happen — which is why most teams try and play “keep away” from the Chiefs by controlling the clock. This looks good on paper, but after the final whistle, having the ball more than the Chiefs does not guarantee a win. This will be an eight- or nine-possession game — which means you cannot punt more than twice (never in the second half) and must score points on each drive. Also, forget about field position — it’s not relevant against the Chiefs. Forcing them to be backed up on offense sounds good, yet it never deters head coach Andy Reid from opening up his call sheet or passing selections.
Before you blink, the Chiefs can move the ball from their 1-yard line to midfield in four plays, so what good is forcing them to play on a long field?
This is why fourth down is a live down anywhere on the field.
OK, now on to a game plan that can win. The Bucs will closely examine the game plan from the Carolina Panthers, who had an excellent complete game design, executed their best, falling about 15 yards short of having a legitimate chance of making a winning field goal with no time left on the clock. The Panthers held the ball for 38:01 in the game, which sounds great, yet as we know, the time of possession is somewhat meaningless against the Chiefs. What matters more are first downs — yes, first downs. Teams with a chance to beat the Chiefs must accumulate at least 25 first downs in the game, allowing you to control the ball. The Panthers had 30 in their game, the Chargers 28 in their overtime loss, and the Raiders had 25 in their loss and 22 in their win. The Panthers converted 7-of-16 third downs against the Chiefs (48 percent), but they were 3 for 3 on fourth down. The Panthers started the game with a 15-play drive that accumulated seven first downs, were in third-down three times, and converted a fourth-and-3 from the Chiefs’ 9 for a touchdown.
This drive had every element of what must happen during the entire game to beat the Chiefs. The first is staying out of third down. Most teams feel you need three downs to convert, thus running the clock, which then keeps the ball away from the Chiefs, which is somewhat true. The best down against the Chiefs to convert first downs is second down. Kansas City is ranked 30th overall in allowing first downs on second down (my version of Canadian Football) and 17th on third down. Byron Leftwich, the Bucs’ offensive coordinator, must have an extensive second down call sheet. He must be willing to avoid the notion of getting into third and manageable (unless the Bucs plan on going for it on fourth down) and convert on second down, thus keeping the clock moving. In the Nov. 29 game against the Chiefs, the Bucs had six first downs in the first half and were 1 for 5 on third down and lucky to be only down 13 points at halftime. They converted their initial first down on the first drive on second down, then did not have another first down until 7:15 left in the second half. In this game, second down will be critical for the Bucs’ offense.
Keeping the clock moving is vital in keeping the Chiefs’ offense on the sideline. It’s also critically important for quarterback Tom Brady to scan the defense to indicate what Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is trying to accomplish. Spagnuolo is the master of disguise. With Tyrann Mathieu at free safety and Daniel Sorensen at strong safety, Spagnuolo has two veteran players who understand his system, can make all the calls to communicate to the other players, plus attempt to confuse the quarterback. Spagnuolo understands his offense can score quickly and often, therefore he does not have to dominate the game; he only needs to create one negative play a drive — force a team to get into second-and-20, and then before long, a punt occurs. Spagnuolo is the ultimate gambler, he will take chances, void places in their secondary, all in an attempt to force the quarterback into a mistake. And if he gets burnt, he knows his offense can even the score, which makes him even more unpredictable. Spagnuolo does not care about yards allowed or first downs; he cares about making that one play per drive, one negative play, which often comes from Mathieu and Sorensen tricking the opposing quarterback with their alignments.
Brady will need to use his snap count, making it appear he will snap the ball quickly, hoping to force Mathieu and Sorensen to declare their coverage and indicate if pressure is coming. Brady will be paying close attention to both players, hoping he can learn the defense before the snap from his extensive film study.
Letting the play clock move serves two essential purposes: it eats time and sheds vital information.
Brady will also need to make sure he identifies where Chiefs tackle Chris Jones is aligned. Brady knows Jones is a problem and can create inside pressure, forcing him to get rid of the ball quickly. When Alex Cappa, the starting right guard, went down for Tampa, the Bucs were forced to start Aaron Stinnie in his place. Brady knows that Spagnuolo will align Jones over Stinnie, forcing a one-on-one in the protection scheme knowing Jones will win nine times out of 10. So for every throw, Brady has to be in the right protection, not allowing Jones to ruin the game.
Handling Jones is one of the keys to victory.
When you play the Chiefs, you want to play from in front because it’s hard to force stops during the game. The Panthers went into halftime with a 17-13 lead knowing the Chiefs would have the ball to start the second half. Controlling the middle eight is essential, which meant this drive was highly critical for the Panthers’ defense. Carolina forced the Chiefs to settle for a field-goal attempt, which they missed — winning the middle eight — and now they needed to extend the lead. They needed to make the Chiefs play from two scores behind as the Raiders did when they extended their lead from 30-24 to 33-24. The Panthers marched the ball down the field. Faced with a fourth-and-2, they decided to attempt a 51-yard field goal, a mistake in hindsight. Had they converted the fourth down, moved closer to the goal line, they might have won the game. This provides a vital lesson in beating the Chiefs — teams cannot miss field goals. You can only settle for three when you’re absolutely positive you will gain three points. Long field goals turn into huge turnovers when missed.
Teams have to think of playing the Chiefs as similar to a tennis match — you must hold serve throughout the game.
One slip-up, one missed opportunity at points from long range hands the advantage back to Kansas City.
So if the Bucs win the toss, they need to take the ball and score — they cannot waste that first possession. The first drive is critical as the Bucs learned from their previous game; playing from behind is too challenging. Their first 20 play calls on offense and defense have to be their best calls. They cannot wait to get into the game’s flow. The Bucs are the fourth-best team in scoring to start the second half and Kansas City is 13th. If they can get the lead at the half, then stop the Chiefs offense from scoring to start the second half, this will enable them to be in position to win the game. This portion of the game will require their best execution and attention to detail from their coaching staff. The Bucs must score points every quarter, knowing that regardless of the score in the third quarter, or early fourth, the Chiefs will score and make the game close. If you don’t believe this, ask the Patriots. In their last playoff loss, the Chiefs had the ball for 3:13 seconds in the fourth quarter, which means they were not effective. Wrong. In that short span, Kansas City’s offense remarkably scored 24 points, with no defensive touchdowns. The Patriots played perfectly for most of the game until the fourth and had to get the game to overtime to win.
No lead is safe when playing the Chiefs and playing conservative is not an option.
The Bucs defense cannot allow receiver Tyreek Hill to have a big day as he did in the last game, dominating the first quarter. Hill ended up with 13 receptions for 269 yards and three touchdowns in the game — which is sensational, but more alarming is that the Chiefs targeted Hill 15 times in the game, which means there were only two misses. That cannot happen Sunday. The Bucs’ defense must double him every play, with a man over him, not allowing a free release and man over the top. They have to take their chances with single coverage on tight end Travis Kelce, jamming him at the line and making it uncomfortable for him to get off the line of scrimmage.
Most importantly, they must win convincingly against the Chiefs’ backup tackles. Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul must dominate Mike Remmers and Andrew Wylie to the point that both Barrett and Pierre-Paul are the MVPs if the Bucs win. If the Bucs don’t win that matchup, the game will be an easy win for Kansas City. Barrett and Pierre-Paul must be in Patrick Mahomes’ face all game and make him feel pressure from every angle.
For the Bucs to become the third team in the last 28 games to beat the Chiefs, they must play flawlessly with their best 70-80 plays on both sides of the ball.
The Bucs have little margin for error — that gets smaller and smaller as the game progresses.
It will take a great complementary game from the Bucs.
I like what I've seen from Chiefs in this post season in the Redzone, I think back to the Denver and Pats home games where those teams hung around because Chiefs were pissing away redzone opportunities. I think that will be huge because I think the Buccs are going to let Pat nickel and dime down the field. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
OMFG just :-) already.
You tried to argue that Reid was "in on it" and was sabotaging the Chiefs for his NFL masters. No one gives a **** what you think, you've proven yourself a dumbass already. You're starting to be more annoying than Penbrook with this shit.
Little Timmy being "internet angry" again...maybe "detoxing" wasn't such a great idea.
You sure do invest a lot of energy following a "dumbass" around...and necroposting my opinions.
What does that say about you...that you have no life? I think that's pretty obvious...
If you didnt follow me around like a puppy-dog...I wouldn't even know who you were.. Since you've forced me to notice you...I find you pretty intellectually underwhelming...which is I why didn't remember you in the first place.
Would you feel all safe and secure if I just tell you the NFL is 100% legit and there is no gambling or ulterior agendas? Should I fix you bottle of warm milk too..and tuck you in?
I, Blackop, declare Detoxing the king of everything that he is capable of understanding...the NFL is 100% legit and there has never been a single instance of dishonesty".
I'm assuming this was the response you desperately needed...so now you have it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Danguardace:
I like what I've seen from Chiefs in this post season in the Redzone, I think back to the Denver and Pats home games where those teams hung around because Chiefs were pissing away redzone opportunities. I think that will be huge because I think the Buccs are going to let Pat nickel and dime down the field.
As a Patriots fan I can honestly say Patriots played the Chiefs how most teams should play this years Chiefs if they have a good offense and a good secondary.
Patriots went small and put more corners/safety's on the field and less defensive lineman/linebackers. That works if the Chiefs can't beat that strategy running the ball down an opponents throat and your own offense does reasonably well.
Patriots offense was pathetic in critical situations with Brian Hoyer making huge mistakes and that is why they had no shot to win the game despite defense holding KC to 19 points.
The advantage the Bucs have is the 2 weeks between games and the previous game. At least they now know, they need to handle Hill differently. Several of the throws to Hill were just great passes by Mahomes and decent coverage but plenty of them was from Bucs starting off with a bad game plan despite missing a few key players on defense in that game.
Bucs have a much much better front 7 in terms of talent/experience than this years Patriots but their secondary is much weaker in terms of experience and to a decent extent talent.
That being said, Rodgers found out that if the Bucs can limit the run while giving the defensive backs more help, they are a tough defense to consistently score on. [Reply]
Originally Posted by stevegroganfan:
The advantage the Bucs have is the 2 weeks between games and the previous game. At least they now know, they need to handle Hill differently. Several of the throws to Hill were just great passes by Mahomes and decent coverage but plenty of them was from Bucs starting off with a bad game plan despite missing a few key players on defense in that game.
The fuck is this shit?
They had the right gameplan? The singled up Hill and thought that they could stop him. And now they know they can’t handle Hill the same?
Which is it? They had the right gameplan but the throws were good? Or they didn’t have the correct gameplan and now they do? [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP:
Nicholas the dolphin has gone six for six in his recent sports predictions, and he correctly picked the Chiefs to beat the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl last year.
Originally Posted by stevegroganfan:
As a Patriots fan I can honestly say Patriots played the Chiefs how most teams should play this years Chiefs if they have a good offense and a good secondary.
Patriots went small and put more corners/safety's on the field and less defensive lineman/linebackers. That works if the Chiefs can't beat that strategy running the ball down an opponents throat and your own offense does reasonably well.
Patriots offense was pathetic in critical situations with Brian Hoyer making huge mistakes and that is why they had no shot to win the game despite defense holding KC to 19 points.
The advantage the Bucs have is the 2 weeks between games and the previous game. At least they now know, they need to handle Hill differently. Several of the throws to Hill were just great passes by Mahomes and decent coverage but plenty of them was from Bucs starting off with a bad game plan despite missing a few key players on defense in that game.
Bucs have a much much better front 7 in terms of talent/experience than this years Patriots but their secondary is much weaker in terms of experience and to a decent extent talent.
That being said, Rodgers found out that if the Bucs can limit the run while giving the defensive backs more help, they are a tough defense to consistently score on.
The Bucs' great run defense is a nonfactor in this game. KC doesn't care.
Yes, the Bucs need to play more zone than man, but they still have to mix looks and are going to have to, at times, play some man and play something other than 2 deep safeties.
Yes, the Bucs have improved and know what WON'T work against Hill now (though that book has been out for teams for 3 years now and he still makes plays, so... :-)). The Chiefs have also greatly improved their short passing game and have been unbelievably efficient with that in each playoff game.
The Chiefs absolutely played some possum in that game against the Bucs. They were vanilla against the Bucs' change up in the second half.
... because Andy Reid saves his best stuff for the playoffs.
The Bucs can pin hopes on just playing a little better and pulling it out, but they have a lot more than 3 points to make up in reality.
1) Uncharacteristic fumble by Mahomes in red zone (3 points, at least)
2) Miscommunication/bad throw by Mahomes when Hardman was by himself behind the D (easy TD)
3) Kicking 2 red zone FG. This won't happen again.
Here are the Chiefs' red zone drive numbers in the playoffs with Mahomes:
33 RZ drives
26 TDs (78.8%)
4 FG (scored on 90.9% of drives, 2 were end of half/no time kicks)
of the 3 empty drives, 2 were end of game kneel downs. the 1 truly empty drive was Butker's missed FG against the Browns.
So that whole "the Chiefs' RZ offense is a problem!" thing... yeah, the playoff Chiefs RZ offense is a WHOLLLLLLLLLE different animal. [Reply]
Chiefs’ C Daniel Kilgore was mid haircut when the barber was notified that he was Covid positive. Kilgore and the barber both were wearing masks. Kilgore has to stay home this week, but has tested negative and can return Saturday, fly with the team and play Sunday, per source. https://t.co/oWfjJX1qIr
Originally Posted by BlackOp:
Little Timmy being "internet angry" again...maybe "detoxing" wasn't such a great idea.
You sure do invest a lot of energy following a "dumbass" around...and necroposting my opinions.
What does that say about you...that you have no life? I think that's pretty obvious...
If you didnt follow me around like a puppy-dog...I wouldn't even know who you were.. Since you've forced me to notice you...I find you pretty intellectually underwhelming...which is I why didn't remember you in the first place.
Would you feel all safe and secure if I just tell you the NFL is 100% legit and there is no gambling or ulterior agendas? Should I fix you bottle of warm milk too..and tuck you in?
I, Blackop, declare Detoxing the king of everything that he is capable of understanding...the NFL is 100% legit and there has never been a single instance of dishonesty".
I'm assuming this was the response you desperately needed...so now you have it.
Blah blah blah no one read that shit because everyone knows you're a dumbass that claimed Andy Reid was "in on it" and served the NFL puppet masters to sabotage his own team.
You said it. You own it. Wear it. Not my problem, buster. [Reply]
Chiefs’ C Daniel Kilgore was mid haircut when the barber was notified that he was Covid positive. Kilgore and the barber both were wearing masks. Kilgore has to stay home this week, but has tested negative and can return Saturday, fly with the team and play Sunday, per source. https://t.co/oWfjJX1qIr
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
Blah blah blah no one read that shit because everyone knows you're a dumbass that claimed Andy Reid was "in on it" and served the NFL puppet masters to sabotage his own team.
You said it. You own it. Wear it. Not my problem, buster.
Reid is a NFL "lifer" and company man...you make the mistake of thinking a branch manager is more powerful than a CEO.
Next time your boss at Burger King tells you to do something you dont like...tell him to go fuck himself...see how that works out. [Reply]
