Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
The boat and yacht Club is at mile marker 444 which is across from Lake contrary that is how I know the illegal Mexicans with covid are still spreading like candy out of a piniata [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
All of this true. The only thing on our side (a little) is how much of the population has some sort of immunity. Based on the IFR of around 0.6%, we can guesstimate that around 10% of the USA population has some sort of immunity or antibodies. The question is how big of a dent will that put in the increased Covid-19 numbers from the cold and flu season we will start to see in about a month. if 1 out of 10 or 1 out of 15 people can't really spread the virus, I'm hoping that can go a long way.
Yep, I've been saying this for a while too.
On this forum I get pushback for saying cold weather could be bad.
In a parallel universe liberal politics forum I'm on - I get pushback for saying partial herd immunity could work in our favor for the coming winter.
Originally Posted by O.city:
Yeah, you also gotta figure there is a fairly large amount of the population who aren't really "susceptible" to this thing. Atleast that woudl be the hope.
It could explain why herd immunity happens at less than the expected 70-80%:
Originally Posted by :
The Brazilian city of Manaus was hit hard by COVID-19. At the peak of its epidemic in late spring, the city of over 2 million people had 4.5 times as many deaths as expected for that time of year. Hospitals and cemeteries struggled to keep up, and mass graves were dug to bury the dead. But then, cases and deaths steadily declined, despite a relaxing of social distancing measures.
That trajectory has prompted some researchers to suggest that Manaus has reached herd immunity. In a report posted September 21 at medRxiv.org that has yet to be peer reviewed, researchers suggest that herd immunity developed in the city after 44 to 52 percent of the population was infected at the epidemic’s peak, and that slowed subsequent spread of the virus.
“These are the highest [infection] levels I’ve seen,” says Elitza Theel, a clinical microbiologist at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., who wasn’t involved in the study. That high infection rate may very well have impacted the trajectory of the epidemic. “That is how herd immunity works,” she says. “But it comes at a high cost … their death rate was very high.”
Originally Posted by O.city:
Our positivity rate in Greene county is finally coming down a little bit. Down to almost 10% now.
We're still getting hammered up here. High positivity rate and high hospitalizations. I'm legitimately concerned we may run out of hospital space. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
We're still getting hammered up here. High positivity rate and high hospitalizations. I'm legitimately concerned we may run out of hospital space.
Nearly 2 weeks into the mask mandate. That shows you how little a mandate helps. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
If it worked we should be on the verge of seeing it. I'd say 2-3 weeks out.
Once you get that much community spread going, it's gonna take a while to get it under control.
Hospitalizations are usually 2/3 weeks post initial infection.
Again, no one is saying masks are gonna bring this down to zero. But masks in addition to distancing and proper hygiene will hopefully allow us to keep hospitals and such doing ok and we continue forward. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Once you get that much community spread going, it's gonna take a while to get it under control.
Hospitalizations are usually 2/3 weeks post initial infection.
Again, no one is saying masks are gonna bring this down to zero. But masks in addition to distancing and proper hygiene will hopefully allow us to keep hospitals and such doing ok and we continue forward.
It sounds nice in theory, but we don't live in a lab. Many won't comply and even if everyone did it would only help some. My point is a mandate is pretty much useless.
Pulling your shirt over your nose as you run into Speedys isn't going to help a whole lot. People can bitch, white and cry about people not doing x y and z but it is what it is. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
It sounds nice in theory, but we don't live in a lab. Many won't comply and even if everyone did it would only help some. My point is a mandate is pretty much useless.
Pulling your shirt over your nose as you run into Speedys isn't going to help a whole lot.
Running into and out of a gas station or whatever Speedys is isn't where this is spreading. It's long term exposure in a poorly ventilated area.
So masking and distancing in workplaces etc is where it should be focused. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
It sounds nice in theory, but we don't live in a lab. Many won't comply and even if everyone did it would only help some. My point is a mandate is pretty much useless.
Pulling your shirt over your nose as you run into Speedys isn't going to help a whole lot. People can bitch, white and cry about people not doing x y and z but it is what it is.
Originally Posted by O.city:
Running into and out of a gas station or whatever Speedys is isn't where this is spreading. It's long term exposure in a poorly ventilated area.
So masking and distancing in workplaces etc is where it should be focused.
Most of that stuff was already being done. That additional mandate won't have much of an impact IMO. It was PR for the mayor getting blasted by the vocal minority. [Reply]