If you’re hitting the ball hard and consistently getting out it’s bad luck
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The Orioles want a pitcher in return, so unless you are talking Carlos Martinez it aint happening.

They've said they would look at a deal similar to the Miller for Heyward swap and at the time of that trade Miller still had 4 years of control and was considered one of the best young pitchers in the league.

They probably have 0 interest in Kelly since they already have a catching prospect who has seen MLB action already. And with Chris Davis sitting at 1B til 2022 and Mark Trumbo DHing for 1 more season they probably have no interest in Jose Martinez. So the only player you mentioned that they might be interested in is Bader. So, does that deal get it done? Nope.
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They can want all that at this point, but they won’t get it.

I don’t think he gets traded because no one is gonna give up that much for half a year.
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Wanna bet?

The guy is hitting .350 with 10 HRs and a 1.068 OPS right now. You dont think someone will pay a couple prospects for a chance at a WS? Delusional. The Cubs did it 2 years ago for a ****ing reliever.

A team that comes to mind right off the top of the head immediately would be the Dodgers. Seager went down for the year and if Machado gets them back on track for a WS for this year you better believe they would pull the trigger.
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A couple prospects sure. A couple high level prospects? I’m thinking no. For half a year of control, I doubt the O’s get much in return
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When you're constantly taking the first 3 pitches and refuse to do anything other than hit the ball into the teeth of the shift because you're the most predictable at-bat in baseball, that's not bad luck.

Carpenter has an .069 BA with a 3 ball count. He has an .068 BA with a 2 strike count (and a shocking .265 OPS). He is, objectively, a terrible hitter late in counts right now. And yet he keeps going up there and taking passive approaches while letting pitchers dictate to him how the AB is gonna go.

When they can get ahead in the count on you or even stay even to two strikes, they're going to throw the ball where they want to throw it and they're going to set you up to hit it exactly where they want you to hit it in the process.

This isn't bad luck, regardless of how badly Girsch and Mabry want you to believe it. And that whole 'keep doing what you're doing' thing came from their conversation as relayed by Carpenter, who is objectively stupid. Carpenter probably only understood half of what he heard anyway and used it as a perfect opportunity for confirmation bias.

This isn't bad luck - it's abysmally bad offense. Carpenter's not going to just snap out of this because he wants to. Pitchers simply do not fear him because he's given them no reason to. He's as predictable as the sunrise so they know exactly how to handle him. And they're going to continue to do so. The dude is swinging at less than half the pitches he sees in the strike zone. That's unbelievable. He's such a comfortable at-bat for pitchers because they can command the entire process. A lot of pitchers hate the shift because they can't throw to certain parts of the zone without the shift biting them in the ass. With Carpenter it doesn't matter - shift him into RF and then throw him a pitch on the outer 1/3...who cares? He's not gonna swing at it anyway. Get your free strike and set up the AB to eventually throw him inside and have him 'make hard contact' right where someone's standing. Because that's where you put them.

You can continue to parrot the company line regarding tough luck and poor strike zones (though his zone is similar to most lefties and not as bad as someone like Jose Ramirez, who's still hitting because he's not a 1-trick pony), but his zone is the same as it's been for 3 years. Time to stop bitching about it and do something.

But him and Matheny lack the combined processing power for simple addition so I wouldn't expect anything revolutionary. Sadly, it won't matter either way. Matheny only knows accountability as it relates to non Mike Guys so Carpenter will be out there killing rallies day after day after day. But fortunately he's an aces defender so we'll keep him out there for the leather...
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Inevitably, probably so.
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They will get at least 1 very good prospect in return without a doubt. Otherwise the Orioles will give him a QO and the end of the year and take the Comp A draft pick in return.

It's funny you think no one is going to overpay at the deadline when it happens EVERY year.
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That’s what I’m thinking they do. They’ve really butchered the whole situation.

Somewhat similar to Harper.

Would the cubs be in On manny or are they just waiting for Harper this offseason
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The Dodgers are doing everything in their power to re-set the luxury tax and are not far under it right now. Moreover they have some starting pitching issues.

If they trade for Machado, they'd have to worry about how his pro-rated $16 million salary impacts their ability to stay under the cap. I believe it means they'd have to wait until right up to the trade deadline (and may still need to pare a little off, though I can't find the exact math). And again, that's presuming that their most pressing need isn't actually starting pitching which would also push them towards the tax thresshold.

Yes, there's a good chance the Dodgers make a move on Machado, but there's also a window for the Cardinals to strike earlier because the Dodgers are trying to get some of that salary out of the way. The Dodgers could ask the Orioles to assume some but that's just gonna continue raising the prospect ante.

As for your inane babblings w/r/t Martinez - if the Cardinals offered Flaherty, Bader and Hudson for Machado - the Orioles would absolutely consider it. They're not getting an appreciably better offer from anyone than that. No, it's not Carlos Martinez or bust.

I'd float them Weaver, Wacha, Bader and Martinez to see if they'd bite. Yes, they're stuck with Chris Davis - what's that have to do with Jose Martinez? That guy isn't a 1b. He's a DH and they have Trumbo with 1 year left on his deal and some of the worst DH production in baseball right now. Martinez also has 5 years of control left. They'd probably prefer more ceiling in their OFer so they'd want O'Neill instead. {shrug}

There's a deal to be made in there somewhere. We don't all have systems with middle relievers and 5th OFers as our top prospects. Theo scorched the damn earth in your minors. He had sound cause but holy lord that system is barren.
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Never said it was Carlos Martinez or bust. I would never expect someone to offer a Carlos Martinez for Machado given the situation.
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Knowing he’s gonna walk straight to the Bronx after the season, I just don’t see the cards moving anything for him. I’m guessing they’re still raw from the heyward deal
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Of course they will - they'll get a top 50, a top 100 and possibly a young major leaguer (or at least a prime-years pitcher with another year or two of control). Nobody's saying they're gonna get the JD Martinez poo poo platter of organizational depth (if that's what you're wanting to pay, Josh Donaldson should be the target).

But the Cardinals can do that fairly easily and they can do that with the pieces the Orioles actually want - starting pitching and OFers. I am not now and have never been a Luke Weaver guy, but he has roughly similar value to Flaherty and Flaherty is in that 20-40 range depending on the prospects lists you look at (Weaver has graduated). O'Neill's ranges are all over the map but he can be seen in that 70-80 range pretty fairly and has come out hot this year.

Start with those 2 and your 3rd piece is pretty easy to find a way to make work.

This isn't the hard sell you're trying to make it.
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I don’t think they’ll get that with it being so known he’s leaving.

I’m likely wrong though
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Here's the question though....is he?

He doesn't want to move to 3b. And Didi Gregorious is in the midst of a no-shit MVP caliber season that's supported by some genuine changes in approach that could suggest a new true talent level.

Andujar has a plus hit tool and plus raw power at 3b. Torres is among the more highly regarded infield prospects in the sport.

I'm not saying that the Yankees can't make a move if they get him, but they might just not feel a desperate need. And I can't imagine the reaction to Stanton's struggles have been all that welcoming to him.

I'm not saying ignore the Yankees - yeah, they're a scary prospect. But I am saying that I don't think it's a truly foregone conclusion. And if you want a chance to make that a difficult decision for him, you're not going to do it with him in a strictly FA setting.

But if you get him in here, make him part of the team and immerse him in the environment. Maybe he loves playing with guys like Ozuna, Martinez and Fowler (hell, dude might like Pham - who knows?). It's truly the only shot the Cardinals have at him. He's a 25 yr old superstar we can give up a young pitcher with the build of a 17 yr old and a prospect or two to give ourselves a chance at sending him to the Hall with a redbird on his hat.

Take the damn chance. He'll get in that dugout, look down the bench and see his teammates and Mike Mathe....

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu*******.
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