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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
kgrund 02:18 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Elaborate, please. Are you saying those percentages are actually lower because there are people we assume have it but haven't been tested? Or are you saying the percentages are actually higher because more people died with Covid but we didn't test them?

Can't be both.
No. What I am saying is the numbers represent of the population that were tested and tested positive, these are the death rates. What I am merely adding is that obviously the mortality rates in Kansas so far would be quite lower if you count the people that have or had it that were never tested.
[Reply]
petegz28 02:18 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
COVID causes pneumonia, pete. You have to look at both columns.

This is the point where you will initiate a 250 post debate about what the true cause of death is.
All I am saying is there are 3 distinct columns. Covid, pneumonia and covid+pnenumoia. I don't see anything that says covid induced pneumonia so I think you are making a bit of an assumption. Perhaps correctly but nonetheless and assumption. Other things cause pneumonia besides Covid. My Son has had it twice since November and never had Covid so.....
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 02:19 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
The numbers for the flu are understated and the CDC websight clearly tells you that.



And I am not comparing it directly to the flu, thats not what I said.

Now keep in mind this only KNOWN positives not asymptomatic or low symptom cases. Average age 81. Its not that deadly to people under 65 period.


Attachment 120550
No, you assume it's understated because you want it to be to help your argument. The CDC looks at flu deaths and extrapolates that out to a population level with confidence intervals, which is why they list upper and lower bounds. Ninety-five percent of the time those estimates will fall within those bounds. This year I believe that it is somewhere between 25K and 62K. The number that is settled on is neither an overestimate nor an underestimate, but the best calculation they have based on that data.
[Reply]
staylor26 02:19 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:


GJ NY!
I wonder how bad NY would’ve been if this simply didn’t happen.
[Reply]
petegz28 02:20 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by kgrund:
No. What I am saying is the numbers represent of the population that were tested and tested positive, these are the death rates. What I am merely adding is that obviously the mortality rates in Kansas so far would be quite lower if you count the people that have or had it that were never tested.
Ah, agreed.
[Reply]
petegz28 02:22 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by staylor26:
I wonder how bad NY would’ve been if this simply didn’t happen.
Or even the rest of the country? Remember when this all first started in WA one of the big spikes was because it hit a couple nursing homes?

We have 3 cluster patterns that seem to be consistent across the country. Nursing homes and assisted living places, meat packing plants and prisons.

Those by far seem to be where we have seen some of the largest clusters.
[Reply]
Baby Lee 02:22 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by Pants:
I'm free to have an opinion and I'm free to express it.
FTR, is questioning people's patriotism something you generally think should be expressed any old time you get the notion to?
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 02:25 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Uh okay, so are you estimating the number if people who had the flu and basing the death rate on that but not estimating the number of people who have Covid but instead using the hard numbers and basing the death rate on that?

That seems like what you are saying and seems like it is not a fair comparison.
The CDC projects an average number of deaths for the flu every year. You can find the info on the number of people who they believe died of the flu right here:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

There is a reported number and a 95% confidence interval for each group. The listed number for each group that I gave Marcellus is pulled directly from that link.

That link also contains an estimated number of symptomatic infections (asymptomatic infections would decrease the IFR of the flu, but again, I did not include them)

Meanwhile, the CDC is also listing deaths from COVID on the site you linked. Note that I pulled deaths from the COVID side only and not from COVID+pneumonia, which would purposefully depress the numbers.

Antibody studies in the US have put prevalence at no more than 5%. Five percent of 330,000,000 is 16 million.

So, disease A has 16 million total infections and 13,000+ deaths in one cohort. Disease B has 35 million symptomatic infections and 8,000 deaths in the same cohort.

Even when I make every piece of data look artificially low for COVID, the death rate is still multiple times higher than the flu for people under 65.
[Reply]
BleedingRed 02:26 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by staylor26:
I wonder how bad NY would’ve been if this simply didn’t happen.
Honestly PA is the same thing 70% of their deaths have took place in nursing homes.
[Reply]
petegz28 02:29 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
The CDC projects an average number of deaths for the flu every year. You can find the info on the number of people who they believe died of the flu right here:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

There is a reported number and a 95% confidence interval for each group. The listed number for each group that I gave Marcellus is pulled directly from that link.

That link also contains an estimated number of symptomatic infections (asymptomatic infections would decrease the IFR of the flu, but again, I did not include them)

Meanwhile, the CDC is also listing deaths from COVID on the site you linked. Note that I pulled deaths from the COVID side only and not from COVID+pneumonia, which would purposefully depress the numbers.

Antibody studies in the US have put prevalence at no more than 5%. Five percent of 330,000,000 is 16 million.

So, disease A has 16 million total infections and 13,000+ deaths in one cohort. Disease B has 35 million symptomatic infections and 8,000 deaths in the same cohort.

Even when I make every piece of data look artificially low for COVID, the death rate is still multiple times higher than the flu for people under 65.
If your point is more people over the age of 65 are dying from Covid than Influenza then I agree. My point was that according to that CDC spreadsheet that more are dying from "pneumonia" than Covid. They have a Covid+pneumonia column so I assume that means the stand alone pneumonia column means it was from something other than covid.
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 02:32 PM 05-22-2020
Releasing convalescing patients to skilled nursing facilities is a regular part of the process. It's done to free up bed space. If those patients were kept in the hospital then the hospitals would have overflowed.

Again, the devil is in the details.

The article says 1/3 of NY's deaths were in nursing homes. Louisiania, which barred COVID patients from nursing homes for 30 days, actually has a higher proportion of nursing home deaths, 40%.

Was this the right decision? I don't know--the optics are certainly bad. But it's not as cut-and-dried as the headline suggests.
[Reply]
BleedingRed 02:32 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
Releasing convalescing patients to skilled nursing facilities is a regular part of the process. It's done to free up bed space. If those patients were kept in the hospital then the hospitals would have overflowed.

Again, the devil is in the details.

The article says 1/3 of NY's deaths were in nursing homes. Louisiania, which barred COVID patients from nursing homes for 30 days, actually has a higher proportion of nursing home deaths, 40%.

Was this the right decision? I don't know--the optics are certainly bad. But it's not as cut-and-dried as the headline suggests.
lol no
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 02:34 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
If your point is more people over the age of 65 are dying from Covid than Influenza then I agree. My point was that according to that CDC spreadsheet that more are dying from "pneumonia" than Covid. They have a Covid+pneumonia column so I assume that means the stand alone pneumonia column means it was from something other than covid.
My point was neither; my point was that Marcellus' claim that this is not that deadly for those under 65 is wholly without merit and even the most generous analysis of the numbers from his perspective demonstrates that.
[Reply]
petegz28 02:35 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
Honestly PA is the same thing 70% of their deaths have took place in nursing homes.
Well the problem is the proximity in those places right? I mean what does it take to spread the virus now that the CDC has said we don't have to Clorox everything?

spreading 1,000+ units of infected particles within a 1m area

It takes about 1 minute of normal speaking and breathing to spread 900 units.

With all the required touching and stuff in nursing home I mean, that is easily done. You almost can't help but spread it. Even if you wear a mask if you spend longer than 2 minutes or so with a person you have probably put enough in the air to infect them and at close range.
[Reply]
petegz28 02:36 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
Releasing convalescing patients to skilled nursing facilities is a regular part of the process. It's done to free up bed space. If those patients were kept in the hospital then the hospitals would have overflowed.

Again, the devil is in the details.

The article says 1/3 of NY's deaths were in nursing homes. Louisiania, which barred COVID patients from nursing homes for 30 days, actually has a higher proportion of nursing home deaths, 40%.

Was this the right decision? I don't know--the optics are certainly bad. But it's not as cut-and-dried as the headline suggests.
I understand where you are coming from but releasing infected people into a pit of ultra-high risk people seems to be rather self-defeating.
[Reply]
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