Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Some keep asking about why testing needs to ramp up.
This thing spreads mostly by asymptomatic spread. So you need to test everyone, even without symptoms, to know who's got it and who you need to isolate. If youre just testing those with symptoms, you're missing the vast majority of infections. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KS Smitty:
Agreed, we just have to be smart about it. There should be some answers as to how much is too much with the states relaxing restriction today. It will be 11 days when KS is expected to ease restrictions, if GA etc have a huge spike in cases by then I expect Gov Kelly to extend the current restriction longer.
Originally Posted by O.city:
Some keep asking about why testing needs to ramp up.
This thing spreads mostly by asymptomatic spread. So you need to test everyone, even without symptoms, to know who's got it and who you need to isolate. If youre just testing those with symptoms, you're missing the vast majority of infections.
Probably but how do you do that? And if I test negative today but go to the grocery store tomorrow and get it then what?
To me the only way that what you are saying really works is if you lock up everyone, test everyone, then let out only those who tested negative AFTER everyone has been tested.
Otherwise the test result you got today could very well be moot tomorrow. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Some keep asking about why testing needs to ramp up.
This thing spreads mostly by asymptomatic spread. So you need to test everyone, even without symptoms, to know who's got it and who you need to isolate. If youre just testing those with symptoms, you're missing the vast majority of infections.
Which is why they're testing this entire meat processing plant in St Joe. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Probably but how do you do that? And if I test negative today but go to the grocery store tomorrow and get it then what?
To me the only way that what you are saying really works is if you lock up everyone, test everyone, then let out only those who tested negative AFTER everyone has been tested.
Otherwise the test result you got today could very well be moot tomorrow.
It's not a one time test. You have to keep doing it, over time, multiple times.
I don't know that it's possible, but with the number of testing we're doing right now, it's showing to not be enough as the number of infected we're finding is still fairly high. [Reply]
This is a long video, but everyone should watch it. Two California doctors explain their findings and extrapolate out the numbers of COVID19 using their data collected. Forgive the girl that keeps interjecting her pissed off commentary, just pay attention to what the doctors are saying because it could change everything....
FAIR WARNING - the girl commentating on the video does get a touch political with her statements from time to time, so go into it knowing that. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city: It's not a one time test. You have to keep doing it, over time, multiple times.
I don't know that it's possible, but with the number of testing we're doing right now, it's showing to not be enough as the number of infected we're finding is still fairly high.
And that's just it. As you said probably not possible. I mean it would be nice if someway businesses could test all of their employees and what not.
The converse of that though is I think there are so many people who have this and are either not impacted or impacted mildly that if we were to measure that accurately then you would start to see this more inline with the flu.
I mean let's think about it for a second. The CDC estimates that up to 45 million people get the flu each year. If this is more contagious than the flu then I think it is safe to assume that we probably have 20 million people nationwide infected now or at some point up until now.
I understand why medical officials and professionals are hesitant to put things in that light but it is a very real possibility and I would guess with a high probability factor.
I guess my point is that we are basing everything off of what we think we know as of now which skews the numbers and pushes us down the path of fear and panic. But if you do start presenting the likely probabilities it could very easily put us on a path of insensitivity as well.
I guess what I am getting at is this is worse than the flu but very likely not as bad as we think. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Okay and they should. But what if at the time the tests are taken someone tests negative but then gets it from somewhere else tomorrow?
I see what they are doing and agree they should. But you can't allow it to provide a false sense of security either.
Originally Posted by Bowser:
I'll post this in here as well
This is a long video, but everyone should watch it. Two California doctors explain their findings and extrapolate out the numbers of COVID19 using their data collected. Forgive the girl that keeps interjecting her pissed off commentary, just pay attention to what the doctors are saying because it could change everything....
FAIR WARNING - the girl commentating on the video does get a touch political with her statements from time to time, so go into it knowing that.
I am gonna watch but it's almost 9 mins long. Can we get a summary? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bowser:
I'll post this in here as well
This is a long video, but everyone should watch it. Two California doctors explain their findings and extrapolate out the numbers of COVID19 using their data collected. Forgive the girl that keeps interjecting her pissed off commentary, just pay attention to what the doctors are saying because it could change everything....
FAIR WARNING - the girl commentating on the video does get a touch political with her statements from time to time, so go into it knowing that.
