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ROYC75 04:26 PM 08-12-2014
Discussion: All things Broncos.
[Reply]
ThaVirus 12:11 PM 10-13-2014
He's not lying. Von is actually very good against the run.
[Reply]
MagicHef 12:11 PM 10-13-2014
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
Did PFF tell you that? The 49ers have had one of the best run defenses in the NFL since Aldon came into the league. He may be surrounded by talent, but I'm not sure you could ever make a case for him being weak against the run.
They had one of the best run defenses in the league the year before he was drafted, too. In fact:

2010 (Before Aldon): 3.5 YPC allowed
2011 (Aldon plays 50.8% of snaps): 3.5 YPC allowed
2012 (Aldon plays 95.5% of snaps): 3.7 YPC allowed
2013 (Aldon plays 79.9% of snaps): 3.9 YPC allowed

Also, since coming into the league, Von has more stops and half as many missed tackles as Aldon.
[Reply]
listopencil 12:13 PM 10-13-2014
Miller looked horrible at the start of the season but he has improved every week. He looked pretty good the last two games. I felt sorry for Geno when Miller and Ware got to him at the same time.
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ThaVirus 12:32 PM 10-13-2014
Originally Posted by MagicHef:
They had one of the best run defenses in the league the year before he was drafted, too. In fact:



2010 (Before Aldon): 3.5 YPC allowed

2011 (Aldon plays 50.8% of snaps): 3.5 YPC allowed

2012 (Aldon plays 95.5% of snaps): 3.7 YPC allowed

2013 (Aldon plays 79.9% of snaps): 3.9 YPC allowed



Also, since coming into the league, Von has more stops and half as many missed tackles as Aldon.

Damn, I'd really love to fully debate with you on this. I was really into our discussion on Charles vs. Terrell Davis but I just can't bring myself to care enough to research stats on this one..

I will say that what you've brought me doesn't support your declaration that Aldon is a "liability" against the run. It could just mean that Von is really fucking good. And given the fact that Smith is a 3-4 OLB I won't even attempt to argue that he's better in pass coverage.

So it appears Aldon edges Von out in pass rushing while Von has the upper hand against the run and in coverage.

These guys get paid to rush the passer, though.
[Reply]
MagicHef 12:52 PM 10-13-2014
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
Damn, I'd really love to fully debate with you on this. I was really into our discussion on Charles vs. Terrell Davis but I just can't bring myself to care enough to research stats on this one..

I will say that what you've brought me doesn't support your declaration that Aldon is a "liability" against the run. It could just mean that Von is really ****ing good. And given the fact that Smith is a 3-4 OLB I won't even attempt to argue that he's better in pass coverage.

So it appears Aldon edges Von out in pass rushing while Von has the upper hand against the run and in coverage.

These guys get paid to rush the passer, though.
They do, and there's the fact that Von is the more consistent pass rusher of the two. He's gotten to the QB in 66.7% of the games he's played, while Aldon has only done so in 59.6%. This speaks to me of the ability to perform consistently against any competition rather than occasionally dominating a poor opponent.

In this same frame of thought, Aldon tends to get his sacks in bunches, in blowout games. 23 of his sacks have come in games decided by 3 or more scores, compared to 9.5 for Von. To me, that means that 31.5 of Von's sacks actually came in games where a sack could be the difference in winning or losing the game, where only 19 of Aldon's sacks came in those situations. For instance, Aldon had 5.5 sacks in a 32-7 blowout of the Bears. I'm sure his sacks helped contribute to the lopsided score, but did they actually make a difference in whether the 49ers won or lost the game?
[Reply]
ThaVirus 02:02 PM 10-13-2014
Originally Posted by MagicHef:
They do, and there's the fact that Von is the more consistent pass rusher of the two. He's gotten to the QB in 66.7% of the games he's played, while Aldon has only done so in 59.6%. This speaks to me of the ability to perform consistently against any competition rather than occasionally dominating a poor opponent.



In this same frame of thought, Aldon tends to get his sacks in bunches, in blowout games. 23 of his sacks have come in games decided by 3 or more scores, compared to 9.5 for Von. To me, that means that 31.5 of Von's sacks actually came in games where a sack could be the difference in winning or losing the game, where only 19 of Aldon's sacks came in those situations. For instance, Aldon had 5.5 sacks in a 32-7 blowout of the Bears. I'm sure his sacks helped contribute to the lopsided score, but did they actually make a difference in whether the 49ers won or lost the game?

This is a good argument.

The only rebuttal I could come up with is one that would include total sacks, hits, and hurries. You don't actually have to record a sack to make an impact.

That information still might support your argument and I don't care enough to look it up.
[Reply]
MagicHef 03:24 PM 10-13-2014
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
This is a good argument.

The only rebuttal I could come up with is one that would include total sacks, hits, and hurries. You don't actually have to record a sack to make an impact.

That information still might support your argument and I don't care enough to look it up.
In 45 games, Von has 209 pressures (sacks + hits + hurries), for 4.64 per game. Aldon has 189 in 43 games, for 4.40 per game.

Von is leading, but 0.24 hurries per game is not a lot.

I'm trying to figure out a way to look at sacks (or pressures) in each game against the sacks (or pressures) allowed by that team that season, to try to account for opponent skill. Yes, I'm bored at work, and messing around in excel is a great way to look busy.
[Reply]
BigMeatballDave 03:30 PM 10-13-2014
Originally Posted by The Herpe:
A lot of Aldon Smith's sacks are due to Justin Smith's non-called defensive holding penalties. There isn't a team in the league who wouldn't take Von Miller over Aldon Smith.
Anus whore.

I bet you think Miller is better than Watt.
[Reply]
ThaVirus 03:37 PM 10-13-2014
Originally Posted by MagicHef:
In 45 games, Von has 209 pressures (sacks + hits + hurries), for 4.64 per game. Aldon has 189 in 43 games, for 4.40 per game.

Von is leading, but 0.24 hurries per game is not a lot.

I'm trying to figure out a way to look at sacks (or pressures) in each game against the sacks (or pressures) allowed by that team that season, to try to account for opponent skill. Yes, I'm bored at work, and messing around in excel is a great way to look busy.
I'd be interested in seeing that.
[Reply]
MagicHef 08:51 PM 10-13-2014
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
I'd be interested in seeing that.
Here:



This is cumulative % of games with a sack, and # of sacks, ordered by number of sacks the opponent gave up that season. The games to the left are the hardest, and they get easier as you go right.

As you can see, Von gets a sack in 50% of his games against teams that gave up 25 or fewer sacks. Aldon doesn't get to 50% until he gets all the way up to opponents with 35 sacks/season.

Also, Von has 10.5 sacks against teams that gave up 32 or fewer sacks in a season, while Aldon only has 3.

I'm not sure this is the best way to show the information, but it sure looks good for Von, I'd say.
[Reply]
ThaVirus 09:05 PM 10-13-2014
Hmmm. Looks good. At first glance, it would appear I couldn't possibly form a counter argument...

What's the significance of allowing 32 sacks? That's not a GoChiefs-esque, random number to support your statistics, is it?
[Reply]
MagicHef 09:17 PM 10-13-2014
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
Hmmm. Looks good. At first glance, it would appear I couldn't possibly form a counter argument...

What's the significance of allowing 32 sacks? That's not a GoChiefs-esque, random number to support your statistics, is it?
Of course it is. It's also 2 sacks per game.
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ThaVirus 09:19 PM 10-13-2014
:-) I figured as much.

Either way, I don't care so I'll go ahead and concede this argument. Congratulations.

KnowMo is still a little bitch, though.
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ThaVirus 09:19 PM 10-13-2014
And Jamaal Charles is better than Terrell Davis!
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MagicHef 09:22 PM 10-13-2014
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
And Jamaal Charles is better than Terrell Davis!
Just for that, I'll add Justin Houston to this chart tomorrow.
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