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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Jayson Oweh, Penn State
staylor26 11:02 PM 02-12-2021
I don’t see this guy getting a lot of love on CP, so I figured I’d start a discussion because I really love his upside and I could easily see him being the pick at 31.

He has very great length and he’s a freak athletically. The problem is he had a very weird season, like a lot of other prospects, where he didn’t get any sacks in a small sample size of games. If you watch the tape though, you can see him flashing and getting pressure on a fairly consistent basis relative to the lack of production.

Despite the stats, he clearly was a better player than in 2019 where he recorded 5 sacks, just an example of how those stats can be misleading in a season where he only played 7 games.

He hasn’t been playing football for a long time, but he’s not just an athlete. He’s definitely a football player and could be our Sneed/Gay/Thornhill/Jones at DE.

We have athletic freaks all over this defense, but not on the edge. I love Clark, but he’s not that. You add that to what we already have though?

This defense could be playing like a top 5 defense down the stretch in 2021.

When you’re picking at 31, these are the kind of guys that could make drafting late irrelevant. This guys just scratching the surface, and with our staff I have full confidence he could reach that potential and give us a top 10 talent at 31.
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Titty Meat 12:03 AM 02-13-2021
I would take him over the WRs at 31 as I see it being a bigger need.
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kccrow 04:17 AM 02-13-2021
I honestly don't understand the ranking of him in the first round by most boards yet Joe Tryon is ranked at the bottom of the second. Tryon is the better player at this point. I don't think Oweh is a first-round caliber player.

I'm not about to start subscribing to the hidden stats, that's how you end up championing players like Matt Cassel and Alex Smith. The numbers say he didn't get a sack in 7 games in college. In fact, they say he's had 1 sack in the last 12. Sorry, I'm not taking an edge rusher at 31 that couldn't get to the QB in college.

Does he have some exciting tools to work with and could he become a better pro as he grows? Sure, I think so. I think that's the type of player you take in the 2nd round.
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Chris Meck 08:05 AM 02-13-2021
I love the measurables; but I'm a little leery of him. I mean, falling in love with the measurables can also mean you end up with Kpassngnon.

I'd prefer Rashad Weaver to be honest. Production, baby.
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staylor26 11:25 AM 02-13-2021
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I love the measurables; but I'm a little leery of him. I mean, falling in love with the measurables can also mean you end up with Kpassngnon.

I'd prefer Rashad Weaver to be honest. Production, baby.
KPass isn’t half the athlete this guy is. It’s not remotely comparable.

Weaver might be an average player at best, while Oweh could be the best pass rusher in this class down the line. There’s not a draft expert that would take Weaver over Oweh man.

Look at a guy like Danielle Hunter. 3.5 career sacks, which is less that Oweh had in just 2019. Hunter wasn’t as highly regarded of a prospect, but the Vikings bet on the elite measurables/size and their coaching staff to get the most out of him. They hit big because of it.
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staylor26 11:26 AM 02-13-2021
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I honestly don't understand the ranking of him in the first round by most boards yet Joe Tryon is ranked at the bottom of the second. Tryon is the better player at this point. I don't think Oweh is a first-round caliber player.

I'm not about to start subscribing to the hidden stats, that's how you end up championing players like Matt Cassel and Alex Smith. The numbers say he didn't get a sack in 7 games in college. In fact, they say he's had 1 sack in the last 12. Sorry, I'm not taking an edge rusher at 31 that couldn't get to the QB in college.

Does he have some exciting tools to work with and could he become a better pro as he grows? Sure, I think so. I think that's the type of player you take in the 2nd round.
This is the same argument of Gay vs. Wilson that we had last year. I think you “don’t understand” because you overlook the raw athleticism to go with the flashes on tape in favor of a more finished product and safer choice. I guess it’s just a difference in philosophy, but I prefer to swing for the fences.

Like Gay, I have all the confidence in the world in our defensive staff to get the most out of Oweh.

I like Tryon, but he’s nowhere near the athlete that Oweh is and he doesn’t have top 10 talent/upside.

If Oweh’s a “2nd rounder”, he’s an early 2nd rounder at worst, and we’re picking 31st. Also, some people have Tryon as a 3rd rounder and most have Oweh ahead of him. You’re certainly in the minority here.

You don’t get a guy like Oweh at 31 if he’s a finished product with no concerns. It’s the same as Phillips, but it’s where he’s at in his development as opposed to injury concerns. You don’t like Phillips because his injury concerns, and you don’t like Oweh because of where he’s at in his development. What you fail to understand is it’s the only reason we even have a shot at either guy. That’s why they’re appealing.

Again, when you’re picking at 31, this is how you make your draft position irrelevant. Like Phillips, Oweh has top 15 talent. There’s a reason they’re both consensus fringe 1st rounders despite though question marks. That’s what I think you’re missing.
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staylor26 11:48 AM 02-13-2021
Also, nobody said anything about “hidden stats”.

When you watch his 2020 tape, he gets pressure. Pressure isn’t “hidden”, it’s right there on tape.

For instance, he was credited with 10 pressures alone in the first game of the season.

I know we don’t like PFF, but their grades reflect this as well. Oweh graded out really well against the run and the pass. I know it’s PFF, but this is a pretty good indicator that the lack of production can be misleading.

It reminds me of Chris Jones, another guy PFF was very high on coming out. I told people over and over again that the production wasn’t a good representation of what you saw on tape, and they wouldn’t listen. Jones didn’t get a lot of sacks in college, but he was VERY disruptive on tape. Oweh is exactly the same in that regard.
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RunKC 02:27 PM 02-13-2021
This just doesn’t seem like a very good pass rushing class. There’s some decent guys at the top but there’s now way in hell I’m spending a first on this guy. At some point production matters.

And Chris had decent stats for a DT that was double-teamed a ton. Plus he just raped guys at MSU.

I think we need to focus early on the strength of the draft which is OL and WR
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Chris Meck 03:03 PM 02-13-2021
Originally Posted by staylor26:
KPass isnít half the athlete this guy is. Itís not remotely comparable.

Weaver might be an average player at best, while Oweh could be the best pass rusher in this class down the line. Thereís not a draft expert that would take Weaver over Oweh man.

Look at a guy like Danielle Hunter. 3.5 career sacks, which is less that Oweh had in just 2019. Hunter wasnít as highly regarded of a prospect, but the Vikings bet on the elite measurables/size and their coaching staff to get the most out of him. They hit big because of it.
Or they might both bust. Or they might both be all-pros.

In most of the mocks I've seen and ran, they're within 10 picks of each other, and sometimes less. One's a freakier athlete with less production, one has shown consistent production.

I'll grant you that Oweh's ceiling is higher, and I don't really dislike him, I've taken him myself in several mocks.

I think Weaver's floor is higher; but in no way do I think his ceiling is 'average at best'.
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staylor26 03:32 PM 02-13-2021
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Or they might both bust. Or they might both be all-pros.

In most of the mocks I've seen and ran, they're within 10 picks of each other, and sometimes less. One's a freakier athlete with less production, one has shown consistent production.

I'll grant you that Oweh's ceiling is higher, and I don't really dislike him, I've taken him myself in several mocks.

I think Weaver's floor is higher; but in no way do I think his ceiling is 'average at best'.
I donít know about the mock draft simulators, but Iím telling you the consensus is theyíre much further apart than 10 picks. Weaver is a 3rd rounder at best, while Oweh is a 1st round at best.

Weaverís ceiling is very limited man.
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staylor26 03:37 PM 02-13-2021
Originally Posted by RunKC:
This just doesn’t seem like a very good pass rushing class. There’s some decent guys at the top but there’s now way in hell I’m spending a first on this guy. At some point production matters.

And Chris had decent stats for a DT that was double-teamed a ton. Plus he just raped guys at MSU.

I think we need to focus early on the strength of the draft which is OL and WR
Oweh was pretty productive in 2019 though. He had 6 sacks. He’s shown that he can produce, but this was a weird year. These guys never even got into a groove playing 7 games without playing every single week. I’m telling you though, he absolutely got better regardless of the drop in production. It’s obvious when you watch 2019 tape and 2020 tape.

Chris Jones never had more than 3 sacks in a season. He wasn’t nearly as productive as he was disruptive. The comparison is more than appropriate, but disagree all you want.

Look, you guys can be scared off from the lack of production this year all you want, but it’s pretty obvious that you haven’t really watched the guy play. I’ll go a step further and say I don’t think any of you, other than crow, have even done your homework on the guy at all. I can just tell.

Just about all the experts and the draft community are higher on this guy than CP is. There’s a a reason for that.

I was anticipating this kind of reaction, because like I said, he’s absolutely going under the radar here.
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kccrow 05:41 PM 02-13-2021
Originally Posted by staylor26:
This is the same argument of Gay vs. Wilson that we had last year. I think you ďdonít understandĒ because you overlook the raw athleticism to go with the flashes on tape in favor of a more finished product and safer choice. I guess itís just a difference in philosophy, but I prefer to swing for the fences.

Like Gay, I have all the confidence in the world in our defensive staff to get the most out of Oweh.

I like Tryon, but heís nowhere near the athlete that Oweh is and he doesnít have top 10 talent/upside.

If Owehís a ď2nd rounderĒ, heís an early 2nd rounder at worst, and weíre picking 31st. Also, some people have Tryon as a 3rd rounder and most have Oweh ahead of him. Youíre certainly in the minority here.

You donít get a guy like Oweh at 31 if heís a finished product with no concerns. Itís the same as Phillips, but itís where heís at in his development as opposed to injury concerns. You donít like Phillips because his injury concerns, and you donít like Oweh because of where heís at in his development. What you fail to understand is itís the only reason we even have a shot at either guy. Thatís why theyíre appealing.

Again, when youíre picking at 31, this is how you make your draft position irrelevant. Like Phillips, Oweh has top 15 talent. Thereís a reason theyíre both consensus fringe 1st rounders despite though question marks. Thatís what I think youíre missing.

That's why I'm most high in round 1 on taking a shot on Ronnie Perkins over any of these guys. Perkins is pretty stout against the run (knock on Tryon), he gets home on the QB and applies insane pressure numbers (knock on Oweh), and he doesn't have half a dozen concussions (knock on Phillips). I'd prefer to take the shot on a guy that will drop because of a failed drug test rather than missing a portion of his game, much in the same way the Chiefs had no business getting Justin Houston coming out.
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kccrow 06:07 PM 02-13-2021
Originally Posted by staylor26:
Oweh was pretty productive in 2019 though. He had 6 sacks. Heís shown that he can produce, but this was a weird year. These guys never even got into a groove playing 7 games without playing every single week. Iím telling you though, he absolutely got better regardless of the drop in production. Itís obvious when you watch 2019 tape and 2020 tape.

Chris Jones never had more than 3 sacks in a season. He wasnít nearly as productive as he was disruptive. The comparison is more than appropriate, but disagree all you want.

Look, you guys can be scared off from the lack of production this year all you want, but itís pretty obvious that you havenít really watched the guy play. Iíll go a step further and say I donít think any of you, other than crow, have even done your homework on the guy at all. I can just tell.

Just about all the experts and the draft community are higher on this guy than CP is. Thereís a a reason for that.

I was anticipating this kind of reaction, because like I said, heís absolutely going under the radar here.
He absolutely played better, especially run defense. That said, he struggles getting pressure and getting home altogether. He falls further against better competition. He has a thin frame and lacks any real power. At this point he opens himself up to lineman too much, he doesn't have the get-off you'd expect for his measurables, and he has no clue how to string together anything. He doesn't use his hands overly well. He's raw as hell. He is PURE height, weight, speed. You have to coach this kid up a ton. He should have stayed in college another year. I'm not taking that in round 1. Take him? Yes, absolutely. I'd take the raw product and hope I could mould it over the next couple of years, because that is likely what it will take, but I'd do it in round 2 or 3.

Tryon is light years beyond him in development but still needs some work, is also young and not fully matured, and has similar measurements. I'd take Tryon over Oweh every single day of the week and twice on Sundays with no reservations or hesitation. I've seen Tryon supplanting Oweh in several mocks recently, and I think a large part of that is ability to affect the QB right now.

Not a single NFL team has taken an edge rusher that has registered zero sacks in his final season in college going back for at least the past 20 years and the average is around 10 sacks. That's a huge, and I mean huge, discrepancy. Oweh's former teammate, Yetur Gross-Matos, was twice the player Oweh is at this point and coming off back-to-back 8+ sack seasons and still dropped to 38. To compound that, last year's draft saw Gross-Matos be the 2nd pure DE taken. This draft is far more loaded at the position than last year's.
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staylor26 09:37 PM 02-13-2021
Originally Posted by kccrow:
He absolutely played better, especially run defense. That said, he struggles getting pressure and getting home altogether. He falls further against better competition. He has a thin frame and lacks any real power. At this point he opens himself up to lineman too much, he doesn't have the get-off you'd expect for his measurables, and he has no clue how to string together anything. He doesn't use his hands overly well. He's raw as hell. He is PURE height, weight, speed. You have to coach this kid up a ton. He should have stayed in college another year. I'm not taking that in round 1. Take him? Yes, absolutely. I'd take the raw product and hope I could mould it over the next couple of years, because that is likely what it will take, but I'd do it in round 2 or 3.

Tryon is light years beyond him in development but still needs some work, is also young and not fully matured, and has similar measurements. I'd take Tryon over Oweh every single day of the week and twice on Sundays with no reservations or hesitation. I've seen Tryon supplanting Oweh in several mocks recently, and I think a large part of that is ability to affect the QB right now.

Not a single NFL team has taken an edge rusher that has registered zero sacks in his final season in college going back for at least the past 20 years and the average is around 10 sacks. That's a huge, and I mean huge, discrepancy. Oweh's former teammate, Yetur Gross-Matos, was twice the player Oweh is at this point and coming off back-to-back 8+ sack seasons and still dropped to 38. To compound that, last year's draft saw Gross-Matos be the 2nd pure DE taken. This draft is far more loaded at the position than last year's.
The best guys in the business (DJ, Zierlein, Brugler, the guys at Draft Network, etc.) all have Oweh as a 1st round pick.

Again, you’re in the minority here, which is fine, but I’m not exactly going out on a limb or being bold.

Generally speaking, the draft community loves this prospect and they’re not all that concerned with the lack of production.

They literally all say exactly the same thing I’m trying to say. He’s very disruptive on tape and he’s not an athlete playing football. He’s a football player, albeit a raw one. I’m confidently betting on the upside.
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RunKC 10:03 PM 02-13-2021
Just watched some footage on him. He looks like a 3rd rd player that will be taken in the 2nd due to measurabled and athleticism.
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