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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Analyzing which states are likely to signal a victory/loss for Trump:
Direckshun 12:54 AM 10-14-2020
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.

They run 40,000 simulations several times a day and report how the results play out. And here's what it tells us: Biden is favored, but there are numerous scenarios where Trump can win.

Category 1. These are the red states he always wins when he wins in the simulations:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That adds up to 126 EVs. He needs 144 more to get across the finish line.

Category 2. So, in every single simulation Trump wins, these are the swing states wins:

Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

That's 133 EVs, which means he needs to win every single one of these to have a shot at reelection.

Combined with the 126 EVs from the red states, that gives him 259 EVs. He needs 11 more to get across the finish line.

Category 3. The last remaining swing states that, according to the simulation, have the best chance of ending up as Trump states:

Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

According to the simulations, Nevada is the likeliest of these states to go Trump, which doesn't get him across the finish line. Same for Wisconsin, which doesn't give you the 11 EVs you need. You need Pennsylvania or Michigan to seal the deal, or you need Nevada and one of those, or Wisconsin and one of those.

He currently trails in Pennsylvania by a polling average of 7 points, and 8 points in Michigan.

Category 4. States he can lose and not worry about it (aside from the blue states):

Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Trump rarely wins these states in the simulations in which he wins.

Final analysis (TL;DR):

For Trump to win:


The easiest shortcut there is Category 3. If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, he's probably winning reelection.

He can get away with losing both, however, if he sweeps Wisconsin (polling average has him behind 9 points) and Nevada (6 points).

And keep in mind, he needs to sweep the Category 2 states. He simply doesn't win re-election without every single one of those states going for him.

For Trump to lose:

A loss in any of the Category 2 states signals that he's almost certainly going to lose.
[Reply]
RodeoPants2 10:25 PM 10-17-2020
Did you factor in the Florida guy polls?
[Reply]
mnchiefsguy 10:32 PM 10-17-2020
I do not know who is going to win...but there is not fucking way Biden is up 8, 10, 12 points....the country is too divided and the Republican base is far more enthused about the election than their democratic counterparts....the race is very tight and it can go either way.
[Reply]
Bowser 10:36 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
So I respect your right to have all these opinions, and Godspeed with Ďem. But I mean, itís based on a lot of conjecture that isnít supported by the data we have.

Your entire first paragraph is your opinion of things, which you ďfeelĒ the majority of the country shares. The second paragraph is irrelevant to this discussion.

Youíre just asking me who I take more seriously: you and a guy named Razor Fist or professionals in their own field. Iím sorry but Iím rolling with the professionals, I just have no reason not to.
I don't trust the professionals, that's how I came to my conclusions and how a guy named Razorfist seems to speak more truth to power than all the prognosticators out there. To my ears, anyway.

Sorry I couldn't get you a more set-in-stone reason to go with. But, opinions and such.
[Reply]
Bowser 10:37 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
There's no evidence to support this.
BWillie things
[Reply]
BWillie 10:48 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
There's no evidence to support this.
Sure there is. Look at the trending demographics. There are alot of old white ppl who will be dying being replaced by younger mainly hispanic voters.

If the Republican party was smart they would pivot and do everything they could to get the Mexican American vote.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 11:26 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Sure there is. Look at the trending demographics. There are alot of old white ppl who will be dying being replaced by younger mainly hispanic voters.

If the Republican party was smart they would pivot and do everything they could to get the Mexican American vote.
This doesn't mean shit until it shows up in the voting.

It hasn't.
[Reply]
jackkked 12:10 AM 10-18-2020
Share when you REEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.

They run 40,000 simulations several times a day and report how the results play out. And here's what it tells us: Biden is favored, but there are numerous scenarios where Trump can win.

Category 1. These are the red states he always wins when he wins in the simulations:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That adds up to 126 EVs. He needs 144 more to get across the finish line.

Category 2. So, in every single simulation Trump wins, these are the swing states wins:

Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

That's 133 EVs, which means he needs to win every single one of these to have a shot at reelection.

Combined with the 126 EVs from the red states, that gives him 259 EVs. He needs 11 more to get across the finish line.

Category 3. The last remaining swing states that, according to the simulation, have the best chance of ending up as Trump states:

Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

According to the simulations, Nevada is the likeliest of these states to go Trump, which doesn't get him across the finish line. Same for Wisconsin, which doesn't give you the 11 EVs you need. You need Pennsylvania or Michigan to seal the deal, or you need Nevada and one of those, or Wisconsin and one of those.

He currently trails in Pennsylvania by a polling average of 7 points, and 8 points in Michigan.

Category 4. States he can lose and not worry about it (aside from the blue states):

Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Trump rarely wins these states in the simulations in which he wins.

Final analysis (TL;DR):

For Trump to win:


The easiest shortcut there is Category 3. If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, he's probably winning reelection.

He can get away with losing both, however, if he sweeps Wisconsin (polling average has him behind 9 points) and Nevada (6 points).

And keep in mind, he needs to sweep the Category 2 states. He simply doesn't win re-election without every single one of those states going for him.

For Trump to lose:

A loss in any of the Category 2 states signals that he's almost certainly going to lose.
Share when you REEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!
[Reply]
jackkked 12:11 AM 10-18-2020
Originally Posted by RodeoPants2:
Did you factor in the Florida guy polls?
Share when you REEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!
[Reply]
Over Yonder 05:29 AM 10-18-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Sure there is. Look at the trending demographics. There are alot of old white ppl who will be dying being replaced by younger mainly hispanic voters.

If the Republican party was smart they would pivot and do everything they could to get the Mexican American vote.
If they were smart, they would close the border and begin the process of kicking out illegals. But, they are not smart, they are Republicans.
[Reply]
Direckshun 11:02 AM 10-18-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
duh prufesionales!

Comeyís letter dropped October 28th.
[Reply]
Direckshun 11:04 AM 10-18-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Yeah, well they nailed 2016, so you might want to listen.
Did they? Iím not so sure.

Whatís their polling say about 2020, though?
[Reply]
Direckshun 11:06 AM 10-18-2020
Originally Posted by Bowser:
I don't trust the professionals, that's how I came to my conclusions and how a guy named Razorfist seems to speak more truth to power than all the prognosticators out there. To my ears, anyway.

Sorry I couldn't get you a more set-in-stone reason to go with. But, opinions and such.
Well I do think your explanations arenít terribly compelling, but thatís me.

Personally, I think thereís a big difference between healthy skepticism and a blanket dismissal of expertise.

I think you and Razor Fist are way too deep into the latter.
[Reply]
vailpass 11:11 AM 10-18-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Well I do think your explanations arenít terribly compelling, but thatís me.

Personally, I think thereís a big difference between healthy skepticism and a blanket dismissal of expertise.

I think you and Razor Fist are way too deep into the latter.
What, exactly, is it that leads you to believe anyone gives a shit what you think?
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 11:13 AM 10-18-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Comey’s letter dropped October 28th.
And? That is effectively meaningless. We're comparing polls, not candidates.

Even after the letter dropped, the polls were mostly full of shit, even if less so.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 11:14 AM 10-18-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Did they? Iím not so sure.
Had Clinton winning by 2 points. :-)
[Reply]
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