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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Analyzing which states are likely to signal a victory/loss for Trump:
Direckshun 12:54 AM 10-14-2020
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.

They run 40,000 simulations several times a day and report how the results play out. And here's what it tells us: Biden is favored, but there are numerous scenarios where Trump can win.

Category 1. These are the red states he always wins when he wins in the simulations:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That adds up to 126 EVs. He needs 144 more to get across the finish line.

Category 2. So, in every single simulation Trump wins, these are the swing states wins:

Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

That's 133 EVs, which means he needs to win every single one of these to have a shot at reelection.

Combined with the 126 EVs from the red states, that gives him 259 EVs. He needs 11 more to get across the finish line.

Category 3. The last remaining swing states that, according to the simulation, have the best chance of ending up as Trump states:

Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

According to the simulations, Nevada is the likeliest of these states to go Trump, which doesn't get him across the finish line. Same for Wisconsin, which doesn't give you the 11 EVs you need. You need Pennsylvania or Michigan to seal the deal, or you need Nevada and one of those, or Wisconsin and one of those.

He currently trails in Pennsylvania by a polling average of 7 points, and 8 points in Michigan.

Category 4. States he can lose and not worry about it (aside from the blue states):

Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Trump rarely wins these states in the simulations in which he wins.

Final analysis (TL;DR):

For Trump to win:


The easiest shortcut there is Category 3. If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, he's probably winning reelection.

He can get away with losing both, however, if he sweeps Wisconsin (polling average has him behind 9 points) and Nevada (6 points).

And keep in mind, he needs to sweep the Category 2 states. He simply doesn't win re-election without every single one of those states going for him.

For Trump to lose:

A loss in any of the Category 2 states signals that he's almost certainly going to lose.
[Reply]
BWillie 05:24 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by BigBeauford:
Seems legit.
[Reply]
Direckshun 05:45 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
This isn't true.

Trump's Rasmussen approval ratings were HIGHER than Obama's Rasmussen approval ratings at the same point just a few weeks ago.
Rasmussen is not a super reputable polling outfit.
[Reply]
Direckshun 05:49 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Bowser:
The polling shows Biden up nationally, what, 12-15? If you honestly and fully believe that is true and accurate, then I can't help you.

I'm thinking Razor calling bullshit on polling is more accurate than the polls themselves.
This is incorrect, according to 538. 538 has him up 8.

Let me ask you: do you believe Trump is the prohibitive favorite, as Razor Blade or whatever his name is does?
[Reply]
Direckshun 05:52 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Just Passin' By:
Biden's own camp has said that the national polling that's out (giving Biden a big, double digit, lead) is not accurate, but Direckshun knows better.
Originally Posted by Taco John:
Kayleigh and the Biden campaign have one incentive: win the election. Theyíre going to give you whatever spin they want to goose the behavior out of you they want. And I donít even know what Target Smart is.

Polling outfits have one incentive: to be correct. I throw my lot in with them over campaigns.
[Reply]
Just Passin' By 06:08 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Kayleigh and the Biden campaign have one incentive: win the election. Theyíre going to give you whatever spin they want to goose the behavior out of you they want. And I donít even know what Target Smart is.

Polling outfits have one incentive: to be correct. I throw my lot in with them over campaigns.
No, what you do is lie in both directions. You lie in favor of those you prefer, and you lie in opposition of those you don't.


Meanwhile:

If you can't find Hagan in the Senate, it's because this is the near millionth time @NateSilver538 got North Carolina wrong. https://t.co/3eG2HjRP7c

— Robert Barnes (@Barnes_Law) October 17, 2020


Yep, he got that entire 2014 election wrong because he thought Ds would turn out more than they did. Its why he was wrong in 2016, 2018, and why he will be wrong again in 2020. Also, RIP Kay Hagan.

— TheDude (@TheDude_GBurns) October 17, 2020



You should try being an honest broker, for a change.
[Reply]
Direckshun 06:27 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Just Passin' By:
No, what you do is lie in both directions. You lie in favor of those you prefer, and you lie in opposition of those you donít.
I assume it would be asking too much for you to explain what you mean.
[Reply]
scho63 06:43 PM 10-17-2020
I believe that moderate Dems are going to be the surprise votes for Trump......
[Reply]
JohnnyHammersticks 07:02 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Rasmussen is not a super reputable polling outfit.
How on earth do you not realize what a fool you're making of yourself?? Did you just totally forget how your "reputable polling outfits" performed in 2016? It's amazing!! :-)


[Reply]
Bowser 07:26 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
This is incorrect, according to 538. 538 has him up 8.

Let me ask you: do you believe Trump is the prohibitive favorite, as Razor Blade or whatever his name is does?
I have no reason to believe Biden is ahead in any way, shape or form. I base that on how the Democrats have gone radical and how the country as a whole feels about the left right now, not just the insulated leftist bubbles in the major metro areas or what their media lapdogs say. On top of that, Biden brings nothing attractive to the table other than he isn't Trump. Nothing. Plus, we both can watch the videos of people live at Trump's rallies vs. Biden's and see for ourselves where the energy is. I feel in the end Trump is more relatable to Americans than Biden is, warts and all. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't feel wrong.

Trump is not perfect and we as a country can certainly do a good deal better in finding a POTUS, but Biden ain't the answer to that question. He's a near 5 decade politician that had his chance whose time has come and gone. I have no idea why the DNC is propping him up, and that says nothing about Kamala. She and Biden are the new Mondale. And in spite of what his detractors say about him, life under Trump is nowhere as bad as the left would have you believe (nb4 "tHe RioTS wErE oN tRUmP'S WaTCh).
[Reply]
Direckshun 08:06 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks:
How on earth do you not realize what a fool you're making of yourself?? Did you just totally forget how your "reputable polling outfits" performed in 2016? It's amazing!! :-)

Iíve been reading polls and policy long enough to know theyíre not infallible, which is why Iím not claiming in this thread that they are.

They are, however, generally reliable. Thereís simply no other effective way to measure how a large population feels about something.
[Reply]
Direckshun 08:13 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Bowser:
I have no reason to believe Biden is ahead in any way, shape or form. I base that on how the Democrats have gone radical and how the country as a whole feels about the left right now, not just the insulated leftist bubbles in the major metro areas or what their media lapdogs say. On top of that, Biden brings nothing attractive to the table other than he isn't Trump. Nothing. Plus, we both can watch the videos of people live at Trump's rallies vs. Biden's and see for ourselves where the energy is. I feel in the end Trump is more relatable to Americans than Biden is, warts and all. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't feel wrong.

Trump is not perfect and we as a country can certainly do a good deal better in finding a POTUS, but Biden ain't the answer to that question. He's a near 5 decade politician that had his chance whose time has come and gone. I have no idea why the DNC is propping him up, and that says nothing about Kamala. She and Biden are the new Mondale. And in spite of what his detractors say about him, life under Trump is nowhere as bad as the left would have you believe (nb4 "tHe RioTS wErE oN tRUmP'S WaTCh).
So I respect your right to have all these opinions, and Godspeed with Ďem. But I mean, itís based on a lot of conjecture that isnít supported by the data we have.

Your entire first paragraph is your opinion of things, which you ďfeelĒ the majority of the country shares. The second paragraph is irrelevant to this discussion.

Youíre just asking me who I take more seriously: you and a guy named Razor Fist or professionals in their own field. Iím sorry but Iím rolling with the professionals, I just have no reason not to.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 08:23 PM 10-17-2020
:-)
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 09:55 PM 10-17-2020
duh prufesionales!


[Reply]
Hammock Parties 09:56 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Rasmussen is not a super reputable polling outfit.
Yeah, well they nailed 2016, so you might want to listen.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 09:58 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
It will be in 2024. It will go blue assuredly by 2032, maybe even by 2028.
There's no evidence to support this.
[Reply]
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