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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Analyzing which states are likely to signal a victory/loss for Trump:
Direckshun 12:54 AM 10-14-2020
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.

They run 40,000 simulations several times a day and report how the results play out. And here's what it tells us: Biden is favored, but there are numerous scenarios where Trump can win.

Category 1. These are the red states he always wins when he wins in the simulations:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That adds up to 126 EVs. He needs 144 more to get across the finish line.

Category 2. So, in every single simulation Trump wins, these are the swing states wins:

Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

That's 133 EVs, which means he needs to win every single one of these to have a shot at reelection.

Combined with the 126 EVs from the red states, that gives him 259 EVs. He needs 11 more to get across the finish line.

Category 3. The last remaining swing states that, according to the simulation, have the best chance of ending up as Trump states:

Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

According to the simulations, Nevada is the likeliest of these states to go Trump, which doesn't get him across the finish line. Same for Wisconsin, which doesn't give you the 11 EVs you need. You need Pennsylvania or Michigan to seal the deal, or you need Nevada and one of those, or Wisconsin and one of those.

He currently trails in Pennsylvania by a polling average of 7 points, and 8 points in Michigan.

Category 4. States he can lose and not worry about it (aside from the blue states):

Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Trump rarely wins these states in the simulations in which he wins.

Final analysis (TL;DR):

For Trump to win:


The easiest shortcut there is Category 3. If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, he's probably winning reelection.

He can get away with losing both, however, if he sweeps Wisconsin (polling average has him behind 9 points) and Nevada (6 points).

And keep in mind, he needs to sweep the Category 2 states. He simply doesn't win re-election without every single one of those states going for him.

For Trump to lose:

A loss in any of the Category 2 states signals that he's almost certainly going to lose.
[Reply]
Bowser 05:32 PM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Well that in of itself plays to Biden, to be honest. The main reason Trump surprised everybody in 2016 was because the undecideds broke hard for him in the closing weeks.
You're going off the premise that a percentage of Trump voters in 2016 have decided not to vote for him again in '20. It's not a stretch to say that premise is faulty at best and just plain ignorant at worst.
[Reply]
Direckshun 01:09 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Bowser:
You're going off the premise that a percentage of Trump voters in 2016 have decided not to vote for him again in '20. It's not a stretch to say that premise is faulty at best and just plain ignorant at worst.
That is incorrect. Iím not going off that premise.

Iím going off the premise that polling is reliable, but not infallible. And the OP is rooted in what the polling is saying.

Youíre going off the premise that Razor Fist is reliable.

Thatís your prerogative. Honestly, Iíll roll with the polling.
[Reply]
JohnnyHammersticks 01:37 PM 10-17-2020
The fact that there are still people who believe Biden has a chance shows just how effective MSM brainwashing can be with people too dumb and mentally lazy to think for themselves. Unfortunately these mindless sheep won't magically grow a frontal lobe as soon as Trump wins. We'll be stepping over these mental manhole covers for the rest of their lives.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 01:47 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by :
the Trump administration, right now, is far more unpopular than the Obama administration ever was.
This isn't true.

Trump's Rasmussen approval ratings were HIGHER than Obama's Rasmussen approval ratings at the same point just a few weeks ago.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 01:49 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by JohnnyHammersticks:
The fact that there are still people who believe Biden has a chance shows just how effective MSM brainwashing can be with people too dumb and mentally lazy to think for themselves. Unfortunately these mindless sheep won't magically grow a frontal lobe as soon as Trump wins. We'll be stepping over these mental manhole covers for the rest of their lives.
This is true.
[Reply]
Bowser 01:51 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
That is incorrect. Iím not going off that premise.

Iím going off the premise that polling is reliable, but not infallible. And the OP is rooted in what the polling is saying.

Youíre going off the premise that Razor Fist is reliable.

Thatís your prerogative. Honestly, Iíll roll with the polling.
The polling shows Biden up nationally, what, 12-15? If you honestly and fully believe that is true and accurate, then I can't help you.

I'm thinking Razor calling bullshit on polling is more accurate than the polls themselves.
[Reply]
Just Passin' By 01:57 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Bowser:
The polling shows Biden up nationally, what, 12-15? If you honestly and fully believe that is true and accurate, then I can't help you.

I'm thinking Razor calling bullshit on polling is more accurate than the polls themselves.
Biden's own camp has said that the national polling that's out (giving Biden a big, double digit, lead) is not accurate, but Direckshun knows better.
[Reply]
BWillie 03:31 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Texas is not a swing state.
It will be in 2024. It will go blue assuredly by 2032, maybe even by 2028.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 03:40 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
It will be in 2024. It will go blue assuredly by 2032, maybe even by 2028.
Are you looking forward to one party rule like they have in China?
[Reply]
BWillie 03:43 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Merde Furieux:
Are you looking forward to one party rule like they have in China?
Not at all. I dont think political parties should exist. I think they should be illegal and similar to insider trading and corporate collusion.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 03:48 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Not at all. I dont think political parties should exist. I think they should be illegal and similar to insider trading and corporate collusion.
I think that political parties that become criminal enterprises should be outlawed, but fat chance of Dhimmi's and Vichy outlawing their own existence.
[Reply]
BigBeauford 03:56 PM 10-17-2020

New Secret Polls show President Trump up by 8 points in California and New York.

— LORI HENDRY (@Lrihendry) October 16, 2020

[Reply]
JohnnyHammersticks 04:40 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by Just Passin' By:
Biden's own camp has said that the national polling that's out (giving Biden a big, double digit, lead) is not accurate, but Direckshun knows better.
It's baffling. It's as if they learned absolutely nothing from 2016. Like it's somehow been completely wiped from their non-functioning, feeble little brains. They will literally believe any propaganda they're fed from the MSM. They're probably really bad at the "you've got mustard on your shirt right here" game. Probably get the shit beat out of them every time. "You fooled me again?!? NO WAY!!!"
[Reply]
Taco John 05:03 PM 10-17-2020

President @realDonaldTrump takes the LEAD in early voting in MICHIGAN!!!

HUGE - VOTE ‼️ pic.twitter.com/UpxhBtYdgS

— Kayleigh McEnany (@kayleighmcenany) October 17, 2020

[Reply]
Just Passin' By 05:09 PM 10-17-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Not at all. I dont think political parties should exist. I think they should be illegal and similar to insider trading and corporate collusion.
That's just pure insanity.
[Reply]
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