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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Analyzing which states are likely to signal a victory/loss for Trump:
Direckshun 12:54 AM 10-14-2020
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.

They run 40,000 simulations several times a day and report how the results play out. And here's what it tells us: Biden is favored, but there are numerous scenarios where Trump can win.

Category 1. These are the red states he always wins when he wins in the simulations:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That adds up to 126 EVs. He needs 144 more to get across the finish line.

Category 2. So, in every single simulation Trump wins, these are the swing states wins:

Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

That's 133 EVs, which means he needs to win every single one of these to have a shot at reelection.

Combined with the 126 EVs from the red states, that gives him 259 EVs. He needs 11 more to get across the finish line.

Category 3. The last remaining swing states that, according to the simulation, have the best chance of ending up as Trump states:

Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

According to the simulations, Nevada is the likeliest of these states to go Trump, which doesn't get him across the finish line. Same for Wisconsin, which doesn't give you the 11 EVs you need. You need Pennsylvania or Michigan to seal the deal, or you need Nevada and one of those, or Wisconsin and one of those.

He currently trails in Pennsylvania by a polling average of 7 points, and 8 points in Michigan.

Category 4. States he can lose and not worry about it (aside from the blue states):

Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Trump rarely wins these states in the simulations in which he wins.

Final analysis (TL;DR):

For Trump to win:


The easiest shortcut there is Category 3. If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, he's probably winning reelection.

He can get away with losing both, however, if he sweeps Wisconsin (polling average has him behind 9 points) and Nevada (6 points).

And keep in mind, he needs to sweep the Category 2 states. He simply doesn't win re-election without every single one of those states going for him.

For Trump to lose:

A loss in any of the Category 2 states signals that he's almost certainly going to lose.
[Reply]
Direckshun 07:57 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
This doesn't require analysis. Mainstream media polls were proven bunk in 2016.
Were they? Most projected a Clinton victory, and she won the popular vote by 3 million.

Trump won the election because he squeaked out victories in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Polling is not infallible. But that doesn't mean it can't be reliable.
[Reply]
Direckshun 07:58 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by Just Passin' By:
You've got to love how he's holding up 538 as the gold standard, while absolutely just dismissing 95.4 to 4.6. I mean, that level of self clowning is off the charts.

:-)
That particular projection was not on election night -- I'm not sure when it was. On election day 538 had Trump at roughly a 1/3rds chance. And 538 did nail the popular vote, which of course Trump lost.

Again, there is no infallible source for polling and polling aggregation. 538's is among the best.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 08:01 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Were they? Most projected a Clinton victory, and she won the popular vote by 3 million.
By 12 points? :-)

Look at the State polls and get back to me. Even some of the places Hillary won, the polls were wrong.

This is Texas we're talking about. You need more than a few dubious polls to declare it a swing state. You are putting the horse before the cart, once again.
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 08:04 AM 10-16-2020
It seems like Mr Trump has some momentum going his way at just the right time. The email release exposing Bidens corruption, Mr Trump doing great in his town hall and Nancy Pelosi being the face of the failed stimulus all will pull Mr Trump though to a 2nd term.
[Reply]
Bowser 08:07 AM 10-16-2020

[Reply]
Direckshun 11:05 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
By 12 points?
By 12 points what?
[Reply]
Direckshun 11:06 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Nothing about Direckshun makes sense.

Hardcore lib, yet chooses to live in one of the reddest States in America, in the reddest city in that State.

When will Springfield go blue, D-Shun? We know you are trying your best.
I like Springfield, and Missouri.
[Reply]
Direckshun 11:06 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by theoldcoach:
If you are into polls............which I am not..........A New York Times/Sienna poll in South Carolina finds Lindsey Graham with a 6 point lead over his democratic challenger for the US Senate.
Worth monitoring.
[Reply]
Direckshun 11:07 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by Bowser:
Not to mention that this election is a purely party driven election. There are virtually no undecideds this go around, and those that are likely won't vote.
Well that in of itself plays to Biden, to be honest. The main reason Trump surprised everybody in 2016 was because the undecideds broke hard for him in the closing weeks.
[Reply]
Direckshun 11:14 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
It seems like Mr Trump has some momentum going his way at just the right time. The email release exposing Bidens corruption, Mr Trump doing great in his town hall and Nancy Pelosi being the face of the failed stimulus all will pull Mr Trump though to a 2nd term.
I'm not super sure of that, to be honest.

Even if the Biden story were true (which I'm not legislating in this thread), it's unclear Americans are aware of it in any significant way. It's not the Comey announcement.

Trump doing well last night is a matter of opinion so I won't weigh in. It's definitely not clear to me, though, that Pelosi is going to be the one that's punished for the lack of an aid package. She struck a deal with the White House, after all.

McConnell and Senate Republicans hate that deal, so it may be them who pay the price, but we have at least two decades of data that tells us that, rightly or wrongly, Americans hold the President responsible for these types of economic dynamics.

That being said, Trump is stepping up spending in Minnesota as of today, which does make me nervous. He put a lot of effort into Pennsylvania and Maine in 2016, and I laughed at him for that. But he ended up winning Pennsylvania and that one Maine district. I do worry some that Trump's outflanking me on this again.

So I'll keep tracking the polling and wait and see on the 3rd (and beyond).
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 11:19 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by Bowser:
:-)
[Reply]
RodeoPants2 11:31 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
It seems like Mr Trump has some momentum going his way at just the right time. The email release exposing Bidens corruption, Mr Trump doing great in his town hall and Nancy Pelosi being the face of the failed stimulus all will pull Mr Trump though to a 2nd term.

[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 11:36 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by RodeoPants2:
It will be less than 5 in a few weeks and then Mr Trump will pull out the victory from the jaws of defeat. The world will be saved once again.
[Reply]
Direckshun 11:39 AM 10-16-2020
I get all my news from Razor Fist.

Spoiler!

[Reply]
RodeoPants2 11:49 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
It will be less than 5 in a few weeks and then Mr Trump will pull out the victory from the jaws of defeat. The world will be saved once again.
What do you imagine will happen, to that 5% of voters switch from Biden to qanon-boy?
[Reply]
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