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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Analyzing which states are likely to signal a victory/loss for Trump:
Direckshun 12:54 AM 10-14-2020
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.

They run 40,000 simulations several times a day and report how the results play out. And here's what it tells us: Biden is favored, but there are numerous scenarios where Trump can win.

Category 1. These are the red states he always wins when he wins in the simulations:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That adds up to 126 EVs. He needs 144 more to get across the finish line.

Category 2. So, in every single simulation Trump wins, these are the swing states wins:

Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

That's 133 EVs, which means he needs to win every single one of these to have a shot at reelection.

Combined with the 126 EVs from the red states, that gives him 259 EVs. He needs 11 more to get across the finish line.

Category 3. The last remaining swing states that, according to the simulation, have the best chance of ending up as Trump states:

Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

According to the simulations, Nevada is the likeliest of these states to go Trump, which doesn't get him across the finish line. Same for Wisconsin, which doesn't give you the 11 EVs you need. You need Pennsylvania or Michigan to seal the deal, or you need Nevada and one of those, or Wisconsin and one of those.

He currently trails in Pennsylvania by a polling average of 7 points, and 8 points in Michigan.

Category 4. States he can lose and not worry about it (aside from the blue states):

Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Trump rarely wins these states in the simulations in which he wins.

Final analysis (TL;DR):

For Trump to win:


The easiest shortcut there is Category 3. If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, he's probably winning reelection.

He can get away with losing both, however, if he sweeps Wisconsin (polling average has him behind 9 points) and Nevada (6 points).

And keep in mind, he needs to sweep the Category 2 states. He simply doesn't win re-election without every single one of those states going for him.

For Trump to lose:

A loss in any of the Category 2 states signals that he's almost certainly going to lose.
[Reply]
Direckshun 07:39 AM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
What's amazing is the liberal media trumpeting this nonsense about Texas being a swing state, but they won't say a damn thing about Minnesota, Oregon or Colorado. They refuse to admit the pendulum could possibly swing the other way.
Check the OP.


[Reply]
HonestChieffan 07:49 AM 10-15-2020

Coronavirus, potential blue wave 'starting to worry' markets: Expert https://t.co/DghXJnv4rk @MorningsMaria @FoxBusiness

— Maria Bartiromo (@MariaBartiromo) October 15, 2020



Biden is a huge threat to stock market, jobs, and business in total. Starting to spook the markets as expected.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 08:06 AM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
I think the primary reason people believe Texas is a 2020 battleground state is:This is all from polling from the last week.

But, yeah, I'm sure 538 is just making it all up.
Yeah, that's all a load of crap. A big load of horse hockey.
[Reply]
Direckshun 08:08 AM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Yeah, that's all a load of crap. A big load of horse hockey.
Well I mean I can't argue with that degree of in-depth analysis.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 10:24 AM 10-15-2020
Doctors at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston are seeking approval to perform a first-of-its-kind surgery to attach the penis of a dead man onto a woman who identifies as transgender.

The operation, which hasn't yet been approved, would involve attaching an organ donor's penis to the groin of a biological female. The surgeons are also waiting for a volunteer to be the first test patient.

https://www.christianpost.com/news/d...ans-groin.html
[Reply]
Mr. Kotter 01:38 PM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
There's no proof Florida Dude is not accurate.

The rest of your post is silliness - those States are all solid red.
Proving a negative....? You are an imbecile when it comes to politics....stick to FB...

:-)
[Reply]
Bowser 01:52 PM 10-15-2020
Has anyone eve conducted a poll showing how many conservatives respond to polling vs. liberals? Might be an interesting study.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 02:27 PM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter:
Proving a negative....? You are an imbecile when it comes to politics....stick to FB...

:-)
If he had been egregiously wrong, it would be easy to prove it. Like it is with MSM polls.

You, once again, are whistling through the graveyard.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 02:28 PM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Well I mean I can't argue with that degree of in-depth analysis.
This doesn't require analysis. Mainstream media polls were proven bunk in 2016.
[Reply]
Just Passin' By 02:37 PM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
This doesn't require analysis. Mainstream media polls were proven bunk in 2016.
You've got to love how he's holding up 538 as the gold standard, while absolutely just dismissing 95.4 to 4.6. I mean, that level of self clowning is off the charts.


:-)
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 03:11 PM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Just Passin' By:
You've got to love how he's holding up 538 as the gold standard, while absolutely just dismissing 95.4 to 4.6. I mean, that level of self clowning is off the charts.


:-)
Nothing about Direckshun makes sense.

Hardcore lib, yet chooses to live in one of the reddest States in America, in the reddest city in that State.

When will Springfield go blue, D-Shun? We know you are trying your best.
[Reply]
theoldcoach 03:49 PM 10-15-2020
If you are into polls............which I am not..........A New York Times/Sienna poll in South Carolina finds Lindsey Graham with a 6 point lead over his democratic challenger for the US Senate.
[Reply]
Bowser 04:04 PM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
This doesn't require analysis. Mainstream media polls were proven bunk in 2016.
Not to mention that this election is a purely party driven election. There are virtually no undecideds this go around, and those that are likely won't vote.
[Reply]
ChiefaRoo 04:14 PM 10-15-2020
https://nypost.com/2020/10/15/emails...-chinese-firm/
[Reply]
Direckshun 07:54 AM 10-16-2020
Originally Posted by Bowser:
Has anyone eve conducted a poll showing how many conservatives respond to polling vs. liberals? Might be an interesting study.
The vast majority of polls will usually show how respondents identify.
[Reply]
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