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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Analyzing which states are likely to signal a victory/loss for Trump:
Direckshun 12:54 AM 10-14-2020
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.

They run 40,000 simulations several times a day and report how the results play out. And here's what it tells us: Biden is favored, but there are numerous scenarios where Trump can win.

Category 1. These are the red states he always wins when he wins in the simulations:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That adds up to 126 EVs. He needs 144 more to get across the finish line.

Category 2. So, in every single simulation Trump wins, these are the swing states wins:

Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

That's 133 EVs, which means he needs to win every single one of these to have a shot at reelection.

Combined with the 126 EVs from the red states, that gives him 259 EVs. He needs 11 more to get across the finish line.

Category 3. The last remaining swing states that, according to the simulation, have the best chance of ending up as Trump states:

Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

According to the simulations, Nevada is the likeliest of these states to go Trump, which doesn't get him across the finish line. Same for Wisconsin, which doesn't give you the 11 EVs you need. You need Pennsylvania or Michigan to seal the deal, or you need Nevada and one of those, or Wisconsin and one of those.

He currently trails in Pennsylvania by a polling average of 7 points, and 8 points in Michigan.

Category 4. States he can lose and not worry about it (aside from the blue states):

Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Trump rarely wins these states in the simulations in which he wins.

Final analysis (TL;DR):

For Trump to win:


The easiest shortcut there is Category 3. If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, he's probably winning reelection.

He can get away with losing both, however, if he sweeps Wisconsin (polling average has him behind 9 points) and Nevada (6 points).

And keep in mind, he needs to sweep the Category 2 states. He simply doesn't win re-election without every single one of those states going for him.

For Trump to lose:

A loss in any of the Category 2 states signals that he's almost certainly going to lose.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 09:11 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Sure it is.
let me get this straight

this is a good source?





have you seen your avatar recently?

reconsider.
[Reply]
vailpass 09:31 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Itís literally a circular argument, which is a logical fallacy.



This is all fine and good. Iím not going to sweat terminology on this.

Question: what do you define as a swing state?
While youíre here, do you care to explain your proposal for moderating DC? Some may not have seen it when you posted it in the lounge last week.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 09:49 PM 10-14-2020
the only reason anyone thinks texas is a swing state is democratic propaganda

hillary got the same percentage of the vote there that obama got in 2008

until we see a democratic senator or governor from texas actually sworn in, it's a complete liberal fantasy that it's a swing state

you can take this to the bank: Trump wins Texas by 10+
[Reply]
Stro39 10:17 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
let me get this straight

this is a good source?





have you seen your avatar recently?

reconsider.
538 had Trumps chances at the last election at roughly 25%.....Nate Silver, the founder of the site also plays poker so doesn't really deal in "rights or wrongs", its all just probabilities. He still thinks Trump can win this next election but the probability is quite a bit lower this time around than that 25%.

The quoted above is just a snapshot in time of what his model is telling him.

Which is to say Silver wasn't wrong because Trump won, and he literally has no skin in the game because its all just numbers for him.

This time Trump is going to have to pull the same odds as an inside/gutter straight to win. Which is not to say he can't do it but those are pretty bad odds.
[Reply]
Stro39 10:27 PM 10-14-2020
Direckshun's avatar also points to what happened last time that can't happen this time....in 2016 many votes for Trump weren't votes for Trump, they were votes against Hillary, and she still won the popular vote by quite a bit.

There's also issues with the campaign outside of Trumps shenanigans - for example the Republicans are running a campaign against a Bernie Sanders style opponent when Biden is as MOTR as it comes.
[Reply]
RubberSponge 10:29 PM 10-14-2020
269/269


Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)
Wisconsin (10)
[Reply]
mnchiefsguy 11:22 PM 10-14-2020
The Democratic nominee for President has only won Texas once in my lifetime.

It is not a swing state.

https://www.270towin.com/states/Texas
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 11:30 PM 10-14-2020
What's amazing is the liberal media trumpeting this nonsense about Texas being a swing state, but they won't say a damn thing about Minnesota, Oregon or Colorado. They refuse to admit the pendulum could possibly swing the other way.

These are definitely going to be swing states going forward. At least two of them. You'll see.

#FLORIDADUDE
[Reply]
RodeoPants2 11:59 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Over Yonder:
I love reading these predictions/forecasts, but it is damn near impossible to take anything seriously that has Texas in the swing state category. I'm sure it's gonna happen eventually, but we are not there yet.

But I will say this, if Trump (or any Republican for that matter) does lose Texas, it's all but over. Putting Ca, Tx, NY, and IL on the same side would be a wall that would be almost too high to climb. Throw in the real possibility of adding FL and PA to that side and it's all but guaranteed. And if it's an election that actually can swing Texas, FL and PA will be a cakewalk for them. It would require one REALLY hated Republican.

IF the Dems truly believe Texas to be a swing state, they need to be dumping serious coin there. I mean like more than half of what they plan on spending all together. Texas would be the goose that laid the golden eggs for the Dems.
I think texas would flip after NC, GA, IA, and ME-2 but I agree if he loses texas it's the ballgame. But the thing is the Dems are better off putting their resources in the states that are more likely to actually swing the election, if trump loses TX he's already lost enoughother states to be headed towards a humiliating blowout.
[Reply]
Over Yonder 03:12 AM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by RodeoPants2:
I think texas would flip after NC, GA, IA, and ME-2 but I agree if he loses texas it's the ballgame. But the thing is the Dems are better off putting their resources in the states that are more likely to actually swing the election, if trump loses TX he's already lost enoughother states to be headed towards a humiliating blowout.
I agree with that. But what I was trying to get at is IF the Dems were fairly confident they could swing Texas, they should (spend the money). But I think they know it's not that time yet.

Yea, they are much better off spending money in actual swing states.
[Reply]
mkp785 03:37 AM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Over Yonder:
I agree with that. But what I was trying to get at is IF the Dems were fairly confident they could swing Texas, they should (spend the money). But I think they know it's not that time yet.

Yea, they are much better off spending money in actual swing states.
The smart play would be that. Focus the money on the actual swing states and get Biden in the WH. Once there, in 2024 when Cruz is up, or even in 22 if they want to shoot for the governor's mansion that's when they can make their move. The amount of resources (both time and money) to even give them a shot in TX can be spent in MI, PA, and NC- the three of which could easily put Biden in the WH if he wins all the previous Hillary states as well.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 05:30 AM 10-15-2020
Biden's a joke. Enjoy your circle jerk for the next 19 days.
[Reply]
Direckshun 07:26 AM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
let me get this straight

this is a good source?





have you seen your avatar recently?

reconsider.
Well, the bottom picture was a hypothetical, so who cares.

The top one was not on election night. On election day 538 had Trump at roughly a 1/3rds chance. And 538 did nail the popular vote, which of course Trump lost.

Again, there is no infallible source for polling and polling aggregation. 538's is among the best.
[Reply]
Direckshun 07:34 AM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
the only reason anyone thinks texas is a swing state is democratic propaganda

hillary got the same percentage of the vote there that obama got in 2008

until we see a democratic senator or governor from texas actually sworn in, it's a complete liberal fantasy that it's a swing state

you can take this to the bank: Trump wins Texas by 10+
I think the primary reason people believe Texas is a 2020 battleground state is:This is all from polling from the last week.

But, yeah, I'm sure 538 is just making it all up.
[Reply]
Direckshun 07:37 AM 10-15-2020
Originally Posted by RubberSponge:
269/269


Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)
Wisconsin (10)
Silver has that as a 1 in 100 chance some days.
[Reply]
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