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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Analyzing which states are likely to signal a victory/loss for Trump:
Direckshun 12:54 AM 10-14-2020
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.

They run 40,000 simulations several times a day and report how the results play out. And here's what it tells us: Biden is favored, but there are numerous scenarios where Trump can win.

Category 1. These are the red states he always wins when he wins in the simulations:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That adds up to 126 EVs. He needs 144 more to get across the finish line.

Category 2. So, in every single simulation Trump wins, these are the swing states wins:

Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

That's 133 EVs, which means he needs to win every single one of these to have a shot at reelection.

Combined with the 126 EVs from the red states, that gives him 259 EVs. He needs 11 more to get across the finish line.

Category 3. The last remaining swing states that, according to the simulation, have the best chance of ending up as Trump states:

Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

According to the simulations, Nevada is the likeliest of these states to go Trump, which doesn't get him across the finish line. Same for Wisconsin, which doesn't give you the 11 EVs you need. You need Pennsylvania or Michigan to seal the deal, or you need Nevada and one of those, or Wisconsin and one of those.

He currently trails in Pennsylvania by a polling average of 7 points, and 8 points in Michigan.

Category 4. States he can lose and not worry about it (aside from the blue states):

Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Trump rarely wins these states in the simulations in which he wins.

Final analysis (TL;DR):

For Trump to win:


The easiest shortcut there is Category 3. If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, he's probably winning reelection.

He can get away with losing both, however, if he sweeps Wisconsin (polling average has him behind 9 points) and Nevada (6 points).

And keep in mind, he needs to sweep the Category 2 states. He simply doesn't win re-election without every single one of those states going for him.

For Trump to lose:

A loss in any of the Category 2 states signals that he's almost certainly going to lose.
[Reply]
eDave 12:58 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Merde Furieux:
OK, I read far enough to see "Texas is a swing state" and that's what inspired to response.
I always thought Texas was a non voting state. This time different for sure.
[Reply]
cosmo20002 02:09 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Of course that's fair. But it's unreasonable to expect infallibility from any polling outfit or aggregation outfit.

538 was also more bullish on Trump's 2016 chances than virtually all of the mainstream polling outfits.
You probably didn't mean in that way, but just to be clear to others, 538 is not a polling outfit.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 02:16 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:

What's your definition of a swing state?
I can answer that simply by telling you what is not a swing state:

California.
Texas.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 02:20 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Seems swingy.

What's your definition of a swing state?
538 is not a good source.
[Reply]
Mr. Kotter 02:35 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
538 is not a good source.
Yet FLORIDA DUDE is....??? :-)


:-) :-) :-)

If the polling is even within 5% of actual votes, Trump will need to sweep IA, FL, NC, OH, and GA to pull it off again--and that assumes he keeps the rest of the states he won in 2016. That's a tall order with 20 days to go (especially if their October "surprises" bomb), but it's certainly still possible.
[Reply]
Mr. Kotter 10-14-2020, 02:36 PM
This message has been deleted by Mr. Kotter. Reason: Dup
Hammock Parties 02:44 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter:
Yet FLORIDA DUDE is....??? :-)
There's no proof Florida Dude is not accurate.

The rest of your post is silliness - those States are all solid red.
[Reply]
baitism 04:24 PM 10-14-2020

[Reply]
Over Yonder 04:51 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by lostcause:
The idea that Texas might be in play for a democrat during a presidential election should be a mayday alert unlike all others for republicans. They will never see the white house again if they lose it.
I think never is a pretty big word, but I will go as far as to say it will take an EXTREMELY unlikely scenario to put a Rep in the White House without Texas. Was my wording confusing? I pretty much agree with you here.

Originally Posted by lostcause:
Edit: I mean, nothing to worry about. Texas will always be red, go back to sleep.
Why the snark edit? I only stated I believe Texas is not in play for the Dems YET. And I typed that up while I was getting my lunchbox around for work this morning. Wasn't no late night/early morning drunken haze or anything.

I generally read here for a few minutes most mornings while am 'waking up'.

Originally Posted by Direckshun:
While I agree with you, the odds are that the Texas legislature will vote to break up the electoral votes among the state like Maine/Nebraska before they allow Texas to single handedly swing blue in any given election.
Huh. There is a situation that I had never thought of. I guess it could happen, I don't know :-)

Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Texas is within screaming distance in 2020, but I wouldn't put it much closer than that unless there truly is a blue wave coming down the pipeline, which is possible but not a foregone conclusion.
I don't know what you would call screaming distance, but I will say I expect Texas to be too close for comfort for the R side. Like maybe +5 or so. For the Republicans to continue competing at a national level, Texas needs to be a comfortable win like California is for the Dems.

I think I agree with everything you are saying here, but apparently, my language barrier on CP could be messing with that :-)
[Reply]
Direckshun 05:38 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Merde Furieux:
I can answer that simply by telling you what is not a swing state:

California.
Texas.
ďTexas isnít a swing state because Texas isnít a swing stateĒ is an underwhelming argument.

If itís polling close, itís a swing state. Texas is polling close in 2020. Ergo, Texas is a swing state in 2020.
[Reply]
Direckshun 05:38 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
538 is not a good source.
Sure it is.
[Reply]
Direckshun 05:39 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
There's no proof Florida Dude is not accurate.

The rest of your post is silliness - those States are all solid red.
Guess again.
[Reply]
Just Passin' By 05:47 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
ďTexas isnít a swing state because Texas isnít a swing stateĒ is an underwhelming argument.

If itís polling close, itís a swing state. Texas is polling close in 2020. Ergo, Texas is a swing state in 2020.
Actually, "Texas isnít a swing state because Texas isnít a swing state" is an excellent argument, if you actually know what a swing state is.

Since you like hiding behind 538, let's bring that forward:

Originally Posted by :
Election analytics website FiveThirtyEight in 2016 identified the states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin as "perennial" swing states that have regularly seen close contests over the last few presidential campaigns.[3]

In 2020 FiveThirtyEight updated this analysis noting that the electoral map is "undergoing a series of changes," with some states (e.g. Iowa, Michigan, Maine) swinging sharply rightward, and other "Red" states moving leftward by at least 4 points (e.g. Arizona, Georgia, Texas)[4]. Likewise, analysis of results of the 2018 midterms indicated that the "battleground states" are changing with Colorado (increasingly Democratic) and Ohio (increasingly Republican) becoming less competitive, and Georgia and Arizona moving into swing state territory.[5][6][7]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state




So.... Texas.... not a swing state.
[Reply]
Rain Man 06:06 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by carlos3652:
Now I know why he pulled money from the Midwest to put money in the south west... if he takes 2 of the Nevada / New Mexico / Colorado states it’s enough without any of PA / Michigan or Wisconsin
As general sharing, the "state" menu on this site has a nice summary of state voting histories: https://www.270towin.com/states/

I looked up NV, NM, and CO, and they all voted against Trump last time and voted Democrat in the last three elections. I think all have purple elements to them so anything is possible, but I think a Trump win in any of the three would be an anomaly.

In Colorado, we have a Senate race that's kind of illuminating. The Republican is the incumbent, and his campaign is centered around, "I may be a Republican, but I'm centrist and independent." The Democrat challenger (who is favored) is noting that the Republican has a 100 percent voting record for Trump.

So if you've got the Republican distancing himself from Trump and the Democrat pointing out that the Republican is close to Trump, that tells me that Trump is probably not winning Colorado.
[Reply]
Katipan 06:20 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
As general sharing, the "state" menu on this site has a nice summary of state voting histories: https://www.270towin.com/states/

I looked up NV, NM, and CO, and they all voted against Trump last time and voted Democrat in the last three elections. I think all have purple elements to them so anything is possible, but I think a Trump win in any of the three would be an anomaly.

In Colorado, we have a Senate race that's kind of illuminating. The Republican is the incumbent, and his campaign is centered around, "I may be a Republican, but I'm centrist and independent." The Democrat challenger (who is favored) is noting that the Republican has a 100 percent voting record for Trump.

So if you've got the Republican distancing himself from Trump and the Democrat pointing out that the Republican is close to Trump, that tells me that Trump is probably not winning Colorado.
Plus I live here now.
[Reply]
Direckshun 08:25 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Just Passin' By:
Actually, "Texas isnít a swing state because Texas isnít a swing state" is an excellent argument, if you actually know what a swing state is.
Itís literally a circular argument, which is a logical fallacy.

Originally Posted by Just Passin' By:
Since you like hiding behind 538, let's bring that forward:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state

So.... Texas.... not a swing state.
This is all fine and good. Iím not going to sweat terminology on this.

Question: what do you define as a swing state?
[Reply]
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