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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Analyzing which states are likely to signal a victory/loss for Trump:
Direckshun 12:54 AM 10-14-2020
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.

They run 40,000 simulations several times a day and report how the results play out. And here's what it tells us: Biden is favored, but there are numerous scenarios where Trump can win.

Category 1. These are the red states he always wins when he wins in the simulations:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That adds up to 126 EVs. He needs 144 more to get across the finish line.

Category 2. So, in every single simulation Trump wins, these are the swing states wins:

Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

That's 133 EVs, which means he needs to win every single one of these to have a shot at reelection.

Combined with the 126 EVs from the red states, that gives him 259 EVs. He needs 11 more to get across the finish line.

Category 3. The last remaining swing states that, according to the simulation, have the best chance of ending up as Trump states:

Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

According to the simulations, Nevada is the likeliest of these states to go Trump, which doesn't get him across the finish line. Same for Wisconsin, which doesn't give you the 11 EVs you need. You need Pennsylvania or Michigan to seal the deal, or you need Nevada and one of those, or Wisconsin and one of those.

He currently trails in Pennsylvania by a polling average of 7 points, and 8 points in Michigan.

Category 4. States he can lose and not worry about it (aside from the blue states):

Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Trump rarely wins these states in the simulations in which he wins.

Final analysis (TL;DR):

For Trump to win:


The easiest shortcut there is Category 3. If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, he's probably winning reelection.

He can get away with losing both, however, if he sweeps Wisconsin (polling average has him behind 9 points) and Nevada (6 points).

And keep in mind, he needs to sweep the Category 2 states. He simply doesn't win re-election without every single one of those states going for him.

For Trump to lose:

A loss in any of the Category 2 states signals that he's almost certainly going to lose.
[Reply]
carlos3652 08:10 AM 10-14-2020
Now I know why he pulled money from the Midwest to put money in the south west... if he takes 2 of the Nevada / New Mexico / Colorado states it’s enough without any of PA / Michigan or Wisconsin
[Reply]
HonestChieffan 08:14 AM 10-14-2020
538 is so in the dem bag it hurts.

following the 538 tweets is nearly a painful as Trumps tweets
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 08:20 AM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by HonestChieffan:
538 is so in the dem bag it hurts.

following the 538 tweets is nearly a painful as Trumps tweets
Even their analysis of the ACB hearings is boldly-faced lefty bullshit.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 08:42 AM 10-14-2020

[Reply]
HonestChieffan 08:42 AM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Even their analysis of the ACB hearings is boldly-faced lefty bullshit.

Objectively, it's not a slow news day, but people sure are worried about some largely irrelevant shit this morning.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 14, 2020



Biden story...."largely irrelevant shit"
Supreme Court..."largely irrelevant shit"
Nan totally embarrassed by the Wolf...."largely irrelevant shit"
[Reply]
digger 08:43 AM 10-14-2020
If only there was a past Presidential election where we can look at to see what happened vs the polling. Oh yea 2016 99% chance of HRC... But here we are again, the dems going for egg on face part 2 electric boogaloo...
[Reply]
Just Passin' By 10-14-2020, 12:19 PM
This message has been deleted by Just Passin' By.
Marcellus 12:22 PM 10-14-2020
We needed another thread about election polls. :-)
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 12:35 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by HonestChieffan:



Biden story...."largely irrelevant shit"
Supreme Court..."largely irrelevant shit"
Nan totally embarrassed by the Wolf...."largely irrelevant shit"
This guy fucking sucks.

He's going to get bodied again Nov. 3.
[Reply]
Direckshun 12:47 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by digger:
If only there was a past Presidential election where we can look at to see what happened vs the polling. Oh yea 2016 99% chance of HRC... But here we are again, the dems going for egg on face part 2 electric boogaloo...
538 had Hillary at 2/3rds of a chance, not a 99% chance.

Well measured polls aren't infallible but they are generally reliable.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 12:48 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
This guy ****ing sucks.

He's going to get bodied again Nov. 3.
Of course he is. Biden's a joke.
[Reply]
eDave 12:50 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Merde Furieux:
This sort of response makes you come across as really stupid, when I know you are not.
[Reply]
Direckshun 12:51 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by carlos3652:
Now I know why he pulled money from the Midwest to put money in the south west... if he takes 2 of the Nevada / New Mexico / Colorado states itís enough without any of PA / Michigan or Wisconsin
That is very true. Your math is right.

But the degree of difficulty is higher.

He trails Biden by an average of 7 in Nevada, 11 in Colorado, and a whopping 14 in New Mexico. I know Trump supporters justfiably believe that Trump will outperform the polls, but that's a bridge too far.

Compare to the rust belt: he trails by 6 in Pennsylvania, 7 in Wisconsin, 8 in Michigan.

I'm clearly not a Trump supporter, but if I were, I think it's time to put all the eggs into the "just hope the polls are egregiously wrong in a way they've never been before" basket.
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 12:51 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by eDave:
This sort of response makes you come across as really stupid, when I know you are not.
OK, I read far enough to see "Texas is a swing state" and that's what inspired to response.
[Reply]
Direckshun 12:54 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by wazu:
That's a really great video. Almost deserves it's own thread. Biggest points that make you step back is that the polls basically claim Biden is going to out-perform Barack Obama and FDR on election day. And that Republicans have turned on Trump and he's losing a big chunk of their support.
FDR is irrelevent; that's just a different era in American history.

Obama is more relevant, but you actually don't need to go The Full Obama, who crushed McCain, to win this election.

You just need to win the blue states, all of the Category 4 states, and if you win one of the Category 2 states, it's almost certainly over for Trump, as he'd now need to win even more Category 3 states.
[Reply]
Direckshun 12:55 PM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Merde Furieux:
OK, I read far enough to see "Texas is a swing state" and that's what inspired to response.
Seems swingy.

What's your definition of a swing state?
[Reply]
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