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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Analyzing which states are likely to signal a victory/loss for Trump:
Direckshun 12:54 AM 10-14-2020
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.

They run 40,000 simulations several times a day and report how the results play out. And here's what it tells us: Biden is favored, but there are numerous scenarios where Trump can win.

Category 1. These are the red states he always wins when he wins in the simulations:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That adds up to 126 EVs. He needs 144 more to get across the finish line.

Category 2. So, in every single simulation Trump wins, these are the swing states wins:

Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

That's 133 EVs, which means he needs to win every single one of these to have a shot at reelection.

Combined with the 126 EVs from the red states, that gives him 259 EVs. He needs 11 more to get across the finish line.

Category 3. The last remaining swing states that, according to the simulation, have the best chance of ending up as Trump states:

Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

According to the simulations, Nevada is the likeliest of these states to go Trump, which doesn't get him across the finish line. Same for Wisconsin, which doesn't give you the 11 EVs you need. You need Pennsylvania or Michigan to seal the deal, or you need Nevada and one of those, or Wisconsin and one of those.

He currently trails in Pennsylvania by a polling average of 7 points, and 8 points in Michigan.

Category 4. States he can lose and not worry about it (aside from the blue states):

Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Trump rarely wins these states in the simulations in which he wins.

Final analysis (TL;DR):

For Trump to win:


The easiest shortcut there is Category 3. If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, he's probably winning reelection.

He can get away with losing both, however, if he sweeps Wisconsin (polling average has him behind 9 points) and Nevada (6 points).

And keep in mind, he needs to sweep the Category 2 states. He simply doesn't win re-election without every single one of those states going for him.

For Trump to lose:

A loss in any of the Category 2 states signals that he's almost certainly going to lose.
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Taco John 01:27 AM 10-14-2020

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Taco John 01:38 AM 10-14-2020
One of Trump's weapons is a fresh minted ballot harvesting operation. Well, not "Trump's" per se. There is quite some distance between Trump and the ballot harvesting operation. But my understanding is that it's been a huge success in the states that allow such shady, but legal practices. I'm hearing that because of it, Trump is going to be very competitive in states where it is allowed to the point that he may be able to flip them. Most notably, California is expected to be more competitive. Apparently they're being very aggressive there and news is starting to heat up around it. Also, word is that California is just the tip of the iceberg, and Democrats are only now realizing just how aggressive Republicans have been in taking advantage of this strategy that was previously almost exclusively a Democrat tactic, and are starting to panic. I'm hearing that there is a huge operation in Florida.
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Just Passin' By 01:41 AM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.
Yeah, it was brilliant in 2016
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Over Yonder 03:23 AM 10-14-2020
I love reading these predictions/forecasts, but it is damn near impossible to take anything seriously that has Texas in the swing state category. I'm sure it's gonna happen eventually, but we are not there yet.

But I will say this, if Trump (or any Republican for that matter) does lose Texas, it's all but over. Putting Ca, Tx, NY, and IL on the same side would be a wall that would be almost too high to climb. Throw in the real possibility of adding FL and PA to that side and it's all but guaranteed. And if it's an election that actually can swing Texas, FL and PA will be a cakewalk for them. It would require one REALLY hated Republican.

IF the Dems truly believe Texas to be a swing state, they need to be dumping serious coin there. I mean like more than half of what they plan on spending all together. Texas would be the goose that laid the golden eggs for the Dems.
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ForeverChiefs58 04:48 AM 10-14-2020
This is a great explanation of why polls are off

https://youtu.be/Gm44z0TyROE
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lostcause 05:45 AM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Over Yonder:
I love reading these predictions/forecasts, but it is damn near impossible to take anything seriously that has Texas in the swing state category. I'm sure it's gonna happen eventually, but we are not there yet.

But I will say this, if Trump (or any Republican for that matter) does lose Texas, it's all but over. Putting Ca, Tx, NY, and IL on the same side would be a wall that would be almost too high to climb. Throw in the real possibility of adding FL and PA to that side and it's all but guaranteed. And if it's an election that actually can swing Texas, FL and PA will be a cakewalk for them. It would require one REALLY hated Republican.

IF the Dems truly believe Texas to be a swing state, they need to be dumping serious coin there. I mean like more than half of what they plan on spending all together. Texas would be the goose that laid the golden eggs for the Dems.
The idea that Texas might be in play for a democrat during a presidential election should be a mayday alert unlike all others for republicans. They will never see the white house again if they lose it.

Edit: I mean, nothing to worry about. Texas will always be red, go back to sleep.
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Direckshun 07:26 AM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Just Passin' By:
Yeah, it was brilliant in 2016
Of course that's fair. But it's unreasonable to expect infallibility from any polling outfit or aggregation outfit.

538 was also more bullish on Trump's 2016 chances than virtually all of the mainstream polling outfits.
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Direckshun 07:28 AM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Over Yonder:
I love reading these predictions/forecasts, but it is damn near impossible to take anything seriously that has Texas in the swing state category. I'm sure it's gonna happen eventually, but we are not there yet.

But I will say this, if Trump (or any Republican for that matter) does lose Texas, it's all but over. Putting Ca, Tx, NY, and IL on the same side would be a wall that would be almost too high to climb. Throw in the real possibility of adding FL and PA to that side and it's all but guaranteed. And if it's an election that actually can swing Texas, FL and PA will be a cakewalk for them. It would require one REALLY hated Republican.

IF the Dems truly believe Texas to be a swing state, they need to be dumping serious coin there. I mean like more than half of what they plan on spending all together. Texas would be the goose that laid the golden eggs for the Dems.
While I agree with you, the odds are that the Texas legislature will vote to break up the electoral votes among the state like Maine/Nebraska before they allow Texas to single handedly swing blue in any given election.

Texas is within screaming distance in 2020, but I wouldn't put it much closer than that unless there truly is a blue wave coming down the pipeline, which is possible but not a foregone conclusion.
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BigCatDaddy 07:28 AM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Of course that's fair. But it's unreasonable to expect infallibility from any polling outfit or aggregation outfit.

538 was also more bullish on Trump's 2016 chances than virtually all of the mainstream polling outfits.
What was there take on Brexit?
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Direckshun 07:30 AM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
What was there take on Brexit?
I actually don't know.

Again, I'm not expecting infallibility from 538 or any polling aggregator. But their track record in American presidential politics is still very strong.
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Hammock Parties 07:44 AM 10-14-2020
Texas is not a swing state.
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wazu 07:59 AM 10-14-2020
Originally Posted by ForeverChiefs58:
This is a great explanation of why polls are off

https://youtu.be/Gm44z0TyROE
That's a really great video. Almost deserves it's own thread. Biggest points that make you step back is that the polls basically claim Biden is going to out-perform Barack Obama and FDR on election day. And that Republicans have turned on Trump and he's losing a big chunk of their support.
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carlos3652 08:04 AM 10-14-2020
Regardless of what’s considered a “swing state” this is a good model to go off of for the electoral college -

Category 3 and 4 is what you need to look out for... if those are competitive on election night, and Trump wins 1 or 2, he’s reelected.

Consider that polls today have Biden winning by 10-12 % in national polls and by an average of 5% in all of the “swing states” that the media considers you have to shake your head that that’s all it would take.

Carrying Michigan is enough...

That’s how bad polling is
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BleedingRed 08:08 AM 10-14-2020
Lol no Texas is not a swing state
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