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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Dow falls 800 points on China trade confusion and mounting fear tariffs are choking g
oaklandhater 04:11 PM 12-04-2018
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/mar...global-n943641



The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by almost 800 points Tuesday, to close at 25,027, continuing a shaky start to the week prompted by confusion over a thaw in U.S.-China trade relations.

The Dow finished the day down 3.06 percent. The S&P 500 lost 3.2 percent of its value, and the Nasdaq fell by 3.8 percent.

The decline on the blue-chip Dow came just one day after a 300-point rally, with investors cheering news that President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping had settled their differences at the G-20 economic summit over the weekend.

Trump announced via a weekend tweet that China would "start purchasing agricultural product immediately," and that "China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S." Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin echoed the positive sentiment, telling CNBC on Monday, "This is the first time that we have a commitment from them that this will be a real agreement."

On Tuesday, Trump tweeted, "The negotiations with China have already started. Unless extended, they will end 90 days from the date of our wonderful and very warm dinner with President Xi in Argentina."

However, no joint statement from the U.S. and Chinese trade teams was issued after the leaders of the world's two largest economies met on the sidelines of the G-20. While the Chinese Foreign Ministry acknowledged that further talks on tariffs would proceed, Beijing has yet to corroborate details on any major parts of the trade agreement, with Chinese state media avoiding any reference to a 90-day condition, nor did it mention an agreement to unilaterally reduce car tariffs.

“The market is reassessing if anything tangible happened at the Trump-Xi dinner,” Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, told MarketWatch.

A protracted tit-for-tat over import tariffs has dominated the economic landscape since Trump first imposed them in January, with markets in turn rallying and tanking as investor sentiment veered.
[Reply]
Lex Luthor 10:23 AM 12-05-2018
Originally Posted by petegz28:
BTW, the OP is completely off base. The yield curve started to invert on Monday which is what sent stocks down. The trade talks had a little chatter about them but it was primarily the inverting yield curve.
I assume you know that an inverted yield curve is very often a precursor to a recession.

I suppose if your goal is to deflect blame from Trump for yesterday's historical drop in the stock market, that might explain why you decided to bring this up. But an inverted yield curve is bad news for everyone.
[Reply]
Lex Luthor 10:29 AM 12-05-2018
Originally Posted by Iowanian:
I should get some money together to buy in first thing in the morning...when the Dow roars back because Trump is awesome.
Good luck with that.

Most people believe timing the market is a losing strategy in a market as volatile as this.


[Reply]
petegz28 11:09 AM 12-05-2018
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor:
I assume you know that an inverted yield curve is very often a precursor to a recession.

I suppose if your goal is to deflect blame from Trump for yesterday's historical drop in the stock market, that might explain why you decided to bring this up. But an inverted yield curve is bad news for everyone.
I know more about that than you know about playing with your twat. And it's hardly a historical drop. Then again, you're a fucking idiot.
[Reply]
Iowanian 11:16 AM 12-05-2018
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor:
Good luck with that.

Most people believe timing the market is a losing strategy in a market as volatile as this.


I'm a believer that the fed has quieted concerns about the interest rate increases, oil is down and Trump is fixing the China trade imbalance. In general, the economy is roaring.


Not sure I have time to make my move tomorrow morning but I see these large dips as temporary opportunities to buy low.
[Reply]
petegz28 11:21 AM 12-05-2018
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor:
Good luck with that.

Most people believe timing the market is a losing strategy in a market as volatile as this.

And any good trader\market timer will tell you it's these volatile markets that present the best money making opportunities.
[Reply]
Iowanian 12-05-2018, 11:22 AM
This message has been deleted by Iowanian.
Over Yonder 11:56 AM 12-05-2018
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor:
I assume you know that an inverted yield curve is very often a precursor to a recession.

I suppose if your goal is to deflect blame from Trump for yesterday's historical drop in the stock market, that might explain why you decided to bring this up. But an inverted yield curve is bad news for everyone.
Even people like me who are in cash? Honest question.

I know short term, I'm good because the last few weeks I have been checking my 401k daily (out of curiosity) and I have made money every single day. Including this Mon and Tue. But if crap does go south, do the money markets generally fall with the stocks?
[Reply]
Lex Luthor 03:12 PM 12-05-2018
Originally Posted by Over Yonder:
Even people like me who are in cash? Honest question.

I know short term, I'm good because the last few weeks I have been checking my 401k daily (out of curiosity) and I have made money every single day. Including this Mon and Tue. But if crap does go south, do the money markets generally fall with the stocks?
My comment about an inverted yield curve being bad news for everyone had nothing to do with the stock market. I was referring to the fact that an inverted yield curve often means that a recession is coming.

Regarding 401-Ks: I wouldn't presume to give anyone advice about a 401-K, but I'll tell you what I did with mine a little over a month ago. I moved most of my money out of the stock market and into a stable income fund. A lot of financial analysts have been telling us for months that the market is overdue for a correction. I enjoyed the hell out of it when the DJIA tripled in value over the last 10 years, and I decided to take those profits out of the stock market for now. I'll probably jump back in at some point in 2019, but for now I'm taking a wait and see attitude. If the market crashes, I'll wait until the recovery starts, and then I'll jump back in. If it doesn't, I'll eventually ease my way back in.

I didn't do this when the stock market crashed in 2008, and my 401-K lost nearly half of its value. It obviously regained all of that and more in the last 10 years, but I vividly remember how unhappy I was when I looked at how much value my portfolio lost. Shortly after the crash of 2008 I was talking to one of the Finance guys where I work, and he said he'd gotten out of the stock market 6 months prior to the crash. I decided then that the next time the market crashes, I'd like to be that guy.

This is the first time since then that the market has appeared to be REALLY overdue for a major correction, so I decided to protect my investment for the next few months. Anyone who stays in the stock market right now is more risk-tolerant than I am. I'm not saying they're wrong, I'm just saying they're willing to take more risks than I am at this point in my life. If you're in your 30s or 40s, staying in the market is almost always the best move because you need to look at it as a long-term investment and you have plenty of time for it to regain its value. But I'm older than that, and I'm more interested in keeping what I have than in gambling that the market that's overdue for a correction will defy expectations.
[Reply]
petegz28 03:19 PM 12-05-2018
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor:
My comment about an inverted yield curve being bad news for everyone had nothing to do with the stock market. I was referring to the fact that an inverted yield curve often means that a recession is coming.

Regarding 401-Ks: I wouldn't presume to give anyone advice about a 401-K, but I'll tell you what I did with mine a little over a month ago. I moved most of my money out of the stock market and into a stable income fund. A lot of financial analysts have been telling us for months that the market is overdue for a correction. I enjoyed the hell out of it when the DJIA tripled in value over the last 10 years, and I decided to take those profits out of the stock market for now. I'll probably jump back in at some point in 2019, but for now I'm taking a wait and see attitude. If the market crashes, I'll wait until the recovery starts, and then I'll jump back in. If it doesn't, I'll eventually ease my way back in.

I didn't do this when the stock market crashed in 2008, and my 401-K lost much of its value. It obviously regained all of that and more in the last 10 years, but I vividly remember how unhappy I was when I looked at how much value my portfolio lost. Shortly after the crash of 2008 I was talking to one of the Finance guys where I work, and he said he'd gotten out of the stock market 6 months prior to the crash. I decided then that the next time the market crashes, I'd like to be that guy.

This is the first time since then that the market has appeared to be REALLY overdue for a major correction, so I decided to protect my investment for the next few months. Anyone who stays in the stock market right now is more risk-tolerant than I am. I'm not saying they're wrong, I'm just saying they're willing to take more risks than I am at this point in my life. If you're in your 30s or 40s, staying in the market is almost always the best move because you need to look at it as a long-term investment and you have plenty of time for it to regain its value. But I'm older than that, and I'm more interested in keeping what I have than in gambling that the market that's overdue for a correction will defy expectations.
Please don't. The simple answer to his question is "no". Money market funds do not fall with stocks and I assume he was trolling you.

Secondly, how do you factor in the tightening and reduction of the balance sheet by the Fed on the inverted yield curve?

Yes, inversion typically signals a recession. And typically years ahead of time.
[Reply]
oaklandhater 03:34 PM 12-05-2018

BREAKING::

- The DOW just closed down a staggering 791 points today

- This is the 4th largest point drop in DOW history (122 years)

- The top 4 largest point drops in history have all now occurred under President Trump.

— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) December 4, 2018




Only the best :-)
[Reply]
Lex Luthor 03:40 PM 12-05-2018
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Please don't. The simple answer to his question is "no". Money market funds do not fall with stocks and I assume he was trolling you.
Over Yonder isn't a troll. He asked an honest question and I gave him an honest answer.

Originally Posted by petegz28:
Secondly, how do you factor in the tightening and reduction of the balance sheet by the Fed on the inverted yield curve?

Yes, inversion typically signals a recession. And typically years ahead of time.
If your point is that the Fed could actually be increasing the likelihood of a recession by tightening the balance sheet, then I don't disagree with you.
[Reply]
petegz28 06:54 PM 12-05-2018
Originally Posted by Lex Luthor:
Over Yonder isn't a troll. He asked an honest question and I gave him an honest answer.



If your point is that the Fed could actually be increasing the likelihood of a recession by tightening the balance sheet, then I don't disagree with you.
My point is the inversion may be more due to fed activity rather than what has typically happened in the past. The Fed is actually ready to start slowing down on the rate hikes. There is nothing on the foreseeable horizon that would indicate a recession. If wages start to skyrocket then you might see that.
[Reply]
petegz28 06:56 PM 12-05-2018
Originally Posted by oaklandhater:




Only the best :-)
you do realize people who know what the fuck they are doing use percentages and not points, right?

You should really just :-) already. You've embarrassed yourself enough in this thread.
[Reply]
Over Yonder 12:55 AM 12-06-2018
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Please don't. The simple answer to his question is "no".
Thanks for the answer. It was one of those questions where I thought I knew the answer, but was just looking for verification.

Originally Posted by petegz28:
Money market funds do not fall with stocks and I assume he was trolling you.
Definitely not. I am very much a babe in the woods when it comes to these matters. It's one of those areas that I really shouldn't dabble in because I don't know squat about it. But the greedy side of me wants the companies free match:-)

That's why I try to stay in whatever area is safest. As long as I keep all my money and as much of the companies as possible, I'm winning (in my mind :-) )
[Reply]
lewdog 06:06 AM 12-06-2018
Originally Posted by Over Yonder:
Thanks for the answer. It was one of those questions where I thought I knew the answer, but was just looking for verification.



Definitely not. I am very much a babe in the woods when it comes to these matters. It's one of those areas that I really shouldn't dabble in because I don't know squat about it. But the greedy side of me wants the companies free match:-)

That's why I try to stay in whatever area is safest. As long as I keep all my money and as much of the companies as possible, I'm winning (in my mind :-) )
You aren’t winning. Inflation makes you lose long term in a money market. Go with a 50/50 balanced index fund. Over 10+ years you’re unlikely to lose money and I feel it’s less risky than a money market making you lose to inflation.

Consult a financial expert. Not some douche on Chiefsplanet though.
[Reply]
Bugeater 07:44 AM 12-06-2018
I am a financial expert. Send your money to me.
[Reply]
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