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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Saudi Scum
NinerDoug 06:35 PM 10-10-2018
And these animals are supposed to be our ally......

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/10/65626...ing-journalist

Trump Administration Presses Saudis For Information On Missing Journalist

More than a week has passed since Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi vanished after visiting the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul. Turkish authorities are telling journalists what they think happened, citing released video footage: that Khashoggi was targeted and murdered.

President Trump said Wednesday that he has spoken to the Saudi government "at the highest levels" about the situation.

"We cannot let this happen to reporters, to anybody. And we're going to get to the bottom of it," Trump said. He said the first lady's office was making arrangements to bring Khashoggi's fiancée, Turkish national Hatice Cengiz, to the White House.

In the days since Khashoggi disappeared, there have been few signs that the Trump administration was putting pressure on Riyadh to explain what had happened.

But in a statement Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that National Security Adviser John Bolton and Trump adviser Jared Kushner spoke to Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman yesterday about the matter. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also spoke with the crown prince "to reiterate the United States' request for information," Sanders said.

The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that before Khashoggi disappeared, U.S. intelligence had intercepted communications in which the Saudis had been discussing a plot to abduct him. Khashoggi has been a contributing writer for The Post.

But on Wednesday, the State Department said the U.S. had no advance knowledge of Khashoggi's disappearance.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not directly accused Saudi Arabia of disappearing Khashoggi. He said if they have footage of Khashoggi leaving the consulate, they should release it, the Associated Press reports. Meanwhile, a newspaper close to Erdogan published the names and photographs of 15 Saudi men whom it said were sent to Istanbul to kill Khashoggi.

The version of events described by Turkish authorities is grisly. One Turkish security official told The New York Times that within two hours of arriving at the consulate, Khashoggi had been killed and dismembered with a bone saw that the Saudi team had brought. He compared the killing to the movie Pulp Fiction.

The Post obtained a series of surveillance video clips that purport to show movements involved in the killing or abduction of Khashoggi: the journalist entering the consulate; a black Mercedes leaving the consulate and then arriving at the consul general's house; Cengiz, his fiancée, pacing outside the consulate as she makes phone calls; the Saudi men leaving an Istanbul hotel and getting on planes at the airport. The Post notes that the clips have inconsistent time stamps at one point, are too blurry to make out key license plate numbers and are heavily edited throughout.

Khashoggi is a resident of the United States and has been living in Washington, D.C. The journalist is the former editor-in-chief of a Saudi newspaper and was an adviser to Saudi government officials. Khashoggi had written columns critical of the Saudi government in The Post in the past year.
In an op-ed published in The Post on Tuesday, Khashoggi's fiancée implored Trump and the first lady to become involved in the search for answers.

"I also urge Saudi Arabia, especially King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to show the same level of sensitivity and release CCTV footage from the consulate," Cengiz wrote. "Although this incident could potentially fuel a political crisis between the two nations, let us not lose sight of the human aspect of what happened. Jamal is a valuable person, an exemplary thinker and a courageous man who has been fighting for his principles."
[Reply]
Superturtle 10:00 AM 10-17-2018
“When I do this job, I listen to music. You should do [that] too."

Nothing like a nice, soothing song when you're committing torture murder.
[Reply]
NinerDoug 10:15 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Donger:
Yes, there is. We are no where near energy independence in 2018.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

US Daily Imports of Saudi Oil (X 1000 barrels) (by year):

2012: 1,364
2013: 1,326
2014: 1,163
2015: 1,056
2016: 1,102
2017: 952

US Oil Production by Year:

2012: 6,502
2013: 7,467
2014: 8,759
2015: 9,431
2016: 8,831
2017: 9,352

So, do you think the Saudis can make us pay $400 per barrel, as they've threatened?

What do you think would happen if the Saudis announced that their price for oil is now $400 per barrel?
[Reply]
Donger 10:16 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by NinerDoug:
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

US Daily Imports of Saudi Oil (X 1000 barrels) (by year):

2012: 1,364
2013: 1,326
2014: 1,163
2015: 1,056
2016: 1,102
2017: 952

US Oil Production by Year:

2012: 6,502
2013: 7,467
2014: 8,759
2015: 9,431
2016: 8,831
2017: 9,352

So, do you think the Saudis can make us pay $400 per barrel, as they've threatened?

What do you think would happen if the Saudis announced that their price for oil is now $400 per barrel?
I'm aware of the numbers. No, they couldn't get it that high but they could easily push it above $100.
[Reply]
NinerDoug 10:17 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Donger:
I'm aware of the numbers. No, they couldn't get it that high but they could easily push it above $100.
How could they do that?
[Reply]
patteeu 10:21 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by NinerDoug:
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

US Daily Imports of Saudi Oil (X 1000 barrels) (by year):

2012: 1,364
2013: 1,326
2014: 1,163
2015: 1,056
2016: 1,102
2017: 952

US Oil Production by Year:

2012: 6,502
2013: 7,467
2014: 8,759
2015: 9,431
2016: 8,831
2017: 9,352

So, do you think the Saudis can make us pay $400 per barrel, as they've threatened?

What do you think would happen if the Saudis announced that their price for oil is now $400 per barrel?
It's a dumb idea that the Saudi's would cut off their nose to spite their face by causing the price of oil to skyrocket (helping the US energy industry while hurting their own economy), but they could definitely make us pay a lot more for our oil. I don't know if they could get it to $400 or not, but if they stop pumping oil, global prices will go way up and the US will pay the market rate regardless of the fact that we produce a lot of oil here. Our oil companies would see a windfall, but US consumers would see price increases.

Edit: The Saudis don't change oil prices by having a guy go out front and change the price on the sign. They change them by regulating production. The embargo option isn't an option.
[Reply]
Donger 10:22 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by NinerDoug:
How could they do that?
By restricting production. Don't get me wrong. They don't have us by the balls like they used to, but they can still squeeze us.
[Reply]
RaiderH8r 10:31 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea:
Dr.Pieczenik who was at State Department under Jimmy Carter says Saudi Arabia's threat of $400 is an empty threat, because of the reserves we have, because we can drill a lot of our own, because we get more from Norway and even from Russia if we allow them to trade with us on it.

Plus the Saudi's still need our weapons.

We get more crude imports from Canada than all of OPEC combined. We're producing 10+Million b/d of crude and on our way to 11M b/d if we want. We've got so much natural gas it's ridiculous. If we can get into a trade war with China we can definitely kick these entitled fucknuts in the yambags if for no other reason than to let them know they are NOT the fucking alpha dog. Their GDP is like that of California. Fuck them if they want to stir up shit over this. I don't care if this journalist was critical of them. I don't care if he was affiliated with Hamas. All the shit we do for those fuckers they don't just get to start offing people because they feel like it. Fuck whatever scapegoat the Saudis come up with to blame this on. MBS needs to go fucking down behind this or we will use their collective coin purse for a speed bag.
[Reply]
NinerDoug 10:31 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Donger:
By restricting production. Don't get me wrong. They don't have us by the balls like they used to, but they can still squeeze us.
Sure, they can restrict their own production (but not the production of the entirety of OPEC). To the extent that they have an effect on oil prices, it incentivizes greater (more expensive) US production.

If the Saudis wish to get us by the balls again, they have to increase oil production, dropping the price, making US oil production less profitable.


Not to mention, wind and solar power has been skyrocketing, natural gas is dirt cheap, and every other car on the road these days is a Prius.


The days of the Saudi stranglehold on the US are over.
[Reply]
RaiderH8r 10:34 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Donger:
By restricting production. Don't get me wrong. They don't have us by the balls like they used to, but they can still squeeze us.
No. They can't.

Their entire strategy going into 2014-15 was to increase production to drive the price down hoping to put US shale producers out of business because shale, at that time, needed between $55-$70 per barrel to break even. Many companies did go under or get bought and the Saudis did gain back some of their global market share. But what happened in the US is we trimmed the fat, got innovative, continued developing newer and more efficient technologies to lower those costs and lo and behold, we're back to profitable. If the Saudis want to drive up those prices, US producers are in a pretty good spot to meet the market demand left by OPEC production cuts. The low prices hurt OPEC far more than they hurt the US. If OPEC wants to go back to low prices, we can do that too and weather the storm better than OPEC nations.
[Reply]
Donger 10:35 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by NinerDoug:
Sure, they can restrict their own production (but not the production of the entirety of OPEC). To the extent that they have an effect on oil prices, it incentivizes greater (more expensive) US production.

If the Saudis wish to get us by the balls again, they have to increase oil production, dropping the price, making US oil production less profitable.


Not to mention, wind and solar power has been skyrocketing, natural gas is dirt cheap, and every other car on the road these days is a Prius.


The days of the Saudi stranglehold on the US are over.
The Saudis still control OPEC. We produce about half of the crude we need. The price of crude is much more impactful on our production than theirs.

And, our demand for crude still increases.

So, no. It's not over.
[Reply]
Donger 10:37 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by RaiderH8r:
No. They can't.

Their entire strategy going into 2014-15 was to increase production to drive the price down hoping to put US shale producers out of business because shale, at that time, needed between $55-$70 per barrel to break even. Many companies did go under or get bought and the Saudis did gain back some of their global market share. But what happened in the US is we trimmed the fat, got innovative, continued developing newer and more efficient technologies to lower those costs and lo and behold, we're back to profitable. If the Saudis want to drive up those prices, US producers are in a pretty good spot to meet the market demand left by OPEC production cuts. The low prices hurt OPEC far more than they hurt the US. If OPEC wants to go back to low prices, we can do that too and weather the storm better than OPEC nations.
Unless you think our production can magically go overnight up to 20 Mbpd, the fact is that we are still highly dependent on foreign sources of crude.

So, yes, they can.
[Reply]
RaiderH8r 10:40 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by WhiteWhale:
You mean the guy who's giving women and minorities rights in Saudi Arabia that they've NEVER HAD?

Yeah, let's roll it back. No need to have women driving. Next thing you know they'll want to vote! I mean this guy isn't even against exterminating the jews. We need to get this guy set straight, like Erdogan, a guy who kills and imprisons journalists more than Putin. Then, for whatever reason, we just don't care. Just like we don't care about their decades long illegal occupation of cyprus or generations long oppression of Kurds, armenians, and other ethnic minorities.

Because reasons.
Market forces are doing more to liberate women in SA than MBS. When Saudi ramped up OPEC production 2015-2017 (give or take) the price drop kicked their economy in the nuts. Their economy needed to diversify and, more importantly, find new customers. Liberating women to drive, shop, and participate more freely in the workforce and Saudi society helped ease the shock of the low price environment but it didn't come close to saving them. Now that toothpaste is out of the tube and the Saudis are left, again, as a one trick pony.
[Reply]
NinerDoug 10:43 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Donger:
The Saudis still control OPEC. We produce about half of the crude we need. The price of crude is much more impactful on our production than theirs.

And, our demand for crude still increases.

So, no. It's not over.
Ok, but we buy only a small percentage of our imports from the Saudis.

Do you think that if the Saudis announce an oil embargo of the US, the rest of the world will just go along with it?

Venezuela, for example, with the wonderful state of their economy, will just shut off the tap? Canada?
[Reply]
RaiderH8r 10:45 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Donger:
Unless you think our production can magically go overnight up to 20 Mbpd, the fact is that we are still highly dependent on foreign sources of crude.

So, yes, they can.
You're assuming they take all of their, and OPEC's, production off the market?

The beauty of a capitalist system is that the cure for high prices is, ultimately, high prices. The cure for low prices is low prices. The more the price goes up the more American companies are going to drill. We saw that with the advent of the shale revolution and we would see it again. US producers have really pulled back on their GOM production plans in favor of the easier to produce onshore plays. But given the right price environment there's no reason to think you wouldn't see a renewed interest in GOM production. Longer term a high price environment would see significant interest and, more importantly, investment in Alaska (again, abandoned in favor of lower cost, easier to produce fields in the lower 48) and the Atlantic coast. We're not going to do it overnight and we may well fall short of an additional 10M b/d production but we would definitely eat into their marketshare and once the Saudis can't afford their social programs to keep the people happy those crown princes will see themselves pilloried in town squares from Riyadh to whatever other fucking cities they have in SA.
[Reply]
Donger 10:47 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by NinerDoug:
Ok, but we buy only a small percentage of our imports from the Saudis.

Do you think that if the Saudis announce an oil embargo of the US, the rest of the world will just go along with it?

Venezuela, for example, with the wonderful state of their economy, will just shut off the tap? Canada?
They don't need an embargo to squeeze us.

Again, you stated that they can't really do anything to us. That's not correct. They absolutely can. Not as badly as they used to be able to, but they still can.
[Reply]
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