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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Saudi Scum
NinerDoug 06:35 PM 10-10-2018
And these animals are supposed to be our ally......

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/10/65626...ing-journalist

Trump Administration Presses Saudis For Information On Missing Journalist

More than a week has passed since Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi vanished after visiting the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul. Turkish authorities are telling journalists what they think happened, citing released video footage: that Khashoggi was targeted and murdered.

President Trump said Wednesday that he has spoken to the Saudi government "at the highest levels" about the situation.

"We cannot let this happen to reporters, to anybody. And we're going to get to the bottom of it," Trump said. He said the first lady's office was making arrangements to bring Khashoggi's fiancée, Turkish national Hatice Cengiz, to the White House.

In the days since Khashoggi disappeared, there have been few signs that the Trump administration was putting pressure on Riyadh to explain what had happened.

But in a statement Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that National Security Adviser John Bolton and Trump adviser Jared Kushner spoke to Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman yesterday about the matter. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also spoke with the crown prince "to reiterate the United States' request for information," Sanders said.

The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that before Khashoggi disappeared, U.S. intelligence had intercepted communications in which the Saudis had been discussing a plot to abduct him. Khashoggi has been a contributing writer for The Post.

But on Wednesday, the State Department said the U.S. had no advance knowledge of Khashoggi's disappearance.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not directly accused Saudi Arabia of disappearing Khashoggi. He said if they have footage of Khashoggi leaving the consulate, they should release it, the Associated Press reports. Meanwhile, a newspaper close to Erdogan published the names and photographs of 15 Saudi men whom it said were sent to Istanbul to kill Khashoggi.

The version of events described by Turkish authorities is grisly. One Turkish security official told The New York Times that within two hours of arriving at the consulate, Khashoggi had been killed and dismembered with a bone saw that the Saudi team had brought. He compared the killing to the movie Pulp Fiction.

The Post obtained a series of surveillance video clips that purport to show movements involved in the killing or abduction of Khashoggi: the journalist entering the consulate; a black Mercedes leaving the consulate and then arriving at the consul general's house; Cengiz, his fiancée, pacing outside the consulate as she makes phone calls; the Saudi men leaving an Istanbul hotel and getting on planes at the airport. The Post notes that the clips have inconsistent time stamps at one point, are too blurry to make out key license plate numbers and are heavily edited throughout.

Khashoggi is a resident of the United States and has been living in Washington, D.C. The journalist is the former editor-in-chief of a Saudi newspaper and was an adviser to Saudi government officials. Khashoggi had written columns critical of the Saudi government in The Post in the past year.
In an op-ed published in The Post on Tuesday, Khashoggi's fiancée implored Trump and the first lady to become involved in the search for answers.

"I also urge Saudi Arabia, especially King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to show the same level of sensitivity and release CCTV footage from the consulate," Cengiz wrote. "Although this incident could potentially fuel a political crisis between the two nations, let us not lose sight of the human aspect of what happened. Jamal is a valuable person, an exemplary thinker and a courageous man who has been fighting for his principles."
[Reply]
Donger 10:50 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by RaiderH8r:
You're assuming they take all of their, and OPEC's, production off the market?

The beauty of a capitalist system is that the cure for high prices is, ultimately, high prices. The cure for low prices is low prices. The more the price goes up the more American companies are going to drill. We saw that with the advent of the shale revolution and we would see it again. US producers have really pulled back on their GOM production plans in favor of the easier to produce onshore plays. But given the right price environment there's no reason to think you wouldn't see a renewed interest in GOM production. Longer term a high price environment would see significant interest and, more importantly, investment in Alaska (again, abandoned in favor of lower cost, easier to produce fields in the lower 48) and the Atlantic coast. We're not going to do it overnight and we may well fall short of an additional 10M b/d production but we would definitely eat into their marketshare and once the Saudis can't afford their social programs to keep the people happy those crown princes will see themselves pilloried in town squares from Riyadh to whatever other ****ing cities they have in SA.
I'm not assuming anything. I'm presenting facts. We cannot double our production overnight. So, it's inaccurate to say that we aren't still hugely dependent on foreign sources of crude.
[Reply]
Over Yonder 10:56 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by NinerDoug:
Sure, they can restrict their own production (but not the production of the entirety of OPEC). To the extent that they have an effect on oil prices, it incentivizes greater (more expensive) US production.

If the Saudis wish to get us by the balls again, they have to increase oil production, dropping the price, making US oil production less profitable.


Not to mention, wind and solar power has been skyrocketing, natural gas is dirt cheap, and every other car on the road these days is a Prius.


The days of the Saudi stranglehold on the US are over.
You guys must have a crap load of them out there because here in the hills of North Missouri, they are next to worthless. I can only think of 1 lady that has one and until they produce more in the horsepower category, I suspect they never will catch on here :-)

But, that's neither here nor there, carry on :-)
[Reply]
patteeu 10:57 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by NinerDoug:
Ok, but we buy only a small percentage of our imports from the Saudis.

Do you think that if the Saudis announce an oil embargo of the US, the rest of the world will just go along with it?

Venezuela, for example, with the wonderful state of their economy, will just shut off the tap? Canada?
It doesn't matter that much where you buy it from. If the global oil supply constricts, prices go up.
[Reply]
NinerDoug 11:02 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Donger:
They don't need an embargo to squeeze us.

Again, you stated that they can't really do anything to us. That's not correct. They absolutely can. Not as badly as they used to be able to, but they still can.
Ok. And what would be the result of the Saudis attempting to squeeze us, in the here and now? If they cut production, what happens to US production?
[Reply]
NinerDoug 11:03 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Donger:
I'm not assuming anything. I'm presenting facts. We cannot double our production overnight. So, it's inaccurate to say that we aren't still hugely dependent on foreign sources of crude.
What can the Saudis do that would cause us to need to double our oil production?
[Reply]
NinerDoug 11:07 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Over Yonder:
You guys must have a crap load of them out there because here in the hills of North Missouri, they are next to worthless. I can only think of 1 lady that has one and until they produce more in the horsepower category, I suspect they never will catch on here :-)

But, that's neither here nor there, carry on :-)
That was more than a bit of hyperbole, but yeah, there are a shit load of them around. And lots of electrics and other hybrids trying to catch up with Toyota.
[Reply]
Donger 11:08 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by NinerDoug:
Ok. And what would be the result of the Saudis attempting to squeeze us, in the here and now? If they cut production, what happens to US production?
If they squeeze us, the price of crude would spike. If they cut production, we can increase ours, but not overnight. It wouldn't be a good thing for us.
[Reply]
Donger 11:08 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by NinerDoug:
What can the Saudis do that would cause us to need to double our oil production?
I don't understand the question.
[Reply]
NinerDoug 11:09 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by patteeu:
It doesn't matter that much where you buy it from. If the global oil supply constricts, prices go up.
Sure, if Saudi's reduce their output, the price goes up. And then the supply goes up in response to the price going up. And then, at the end of the day, the Saudis have shot themselves in the foot. If they want to hurt us, in the long run, they have to increase production.
[Reply]
NinerDoug 11:11 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Donger:
If they squeeze us, the price of crude would spike. If they cut production, we can increase ours, but not overnight. It wouldn't be a good thing for us.
It wouldn't be good thing for us in the short term. It would be a much worse thing for them in the long term. (Not to mention their own short term - they have bills to pay.)
[Reply]
NinerDoug 11:13 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Donger:
I don't understand the question.
You said, correctly, that we can't double our own oil production over night.

I don't believe there is anything the Saudis could do that would necessitate us doubling our oil production or anything like it.
[Reply]
patteeu 11:32 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by NinerDoug:
Sure, if Saudi's reduce their output, the price goes up. And then the supply goes up in response to the price going up. And then, at the end of the day, the Saudis have shot themselves in the foot. If they want to hurt us, in the long run, they have to increase production.
I basically said that in my first response to you. But for some reason you keep bringing up the sources of our current consumption and it wasn’t clear to me that you understand that the price of oil is mainly driven by global supply without regard to source.
[Reply]
RaiderH8r 11:39 AM 10-17-2018
If the Saudis pulled all OPEC supply from the US market we'd be talking on the magnitude of roughly 3.3 M b/d (2017 US import number from OPEC) production. We imported 955,000 b/d from just Saudi in 2017, yeah we can replace that.

We imported just over 4M b/d from Canada in 2017. Total imports for 2017 were 10.1M b/d from all sources.

tl;dr Saudis can't do shit.

Moreover, let's see how they like fighting that war in Yemen when their American made planes start falling out of the sky because they have no replacements or spare parts for repairs. Let's see how much they like Shia Muslims jumping the border to fuck with their shit on the regular once the US decides maybe we don't need to fuck around over there anymore.

MBS is the rogue actor here, if there is one. Whoever the crown trots out as the fall guy is nothing more than a scapegoat and we must demand that MBS be tried and punished. Ultimately this would be good for the crown anyway. Any prince who thinks they can usurp the Saudi crown's authority to shit on the US is likely a threat to do more damage, or even challenge, the crown's authority down the road. Doesn't mean he'd be successful but that sort of fight is one that they certainly want to avoid.
[Reply]
RaiderH8r 11:44 AM 10-17-2018
Originally Posted by Donger:
I'm not assuming anything. I'm presenting facts. We cannot double our production overnight. So, it's inaccurate to say that we aren't still hugely dependent on foreign sources of crude.
For us to "need" to double our production overnight one would have to assume the 10+M b/d we import wouldn't be available and that's just not the case at all.

As I pointed out above, OPEC accounted for 3.3M b/d imports in 2017 and Saudi accounted for 955K b/d imports that same year. Would prices go up? Sure. But we are well positioned to respond in fairly short order to a sustained high price environment. And certainly well enough positioned to steal whatever global market share the Saudis lose in this effort.
[Reply]
RaiderH8r 11:47 AM 10-17-2018
Saudi GDP is smaller than Ohio's. Yeah. Does the crown really want to fuck the US over some self-entitled little prick with a Napoleon complex?

If Trump doesn't put the hammer down on these fuckers he's a full blown pussy. They just took a huge shit right on our new couch. Whatchya gonna do about it Donald?
[Reply]
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