Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by lewdog:
I’m likely getting tested on Monday.
Swabbing my brain I guess.
Seriously though, even if you have it you will be fine dude. Did you hear The Saints head coach about this? The media would have people think this is a death sentence when in reality as much as people don't want to hear it, it's gonna be like having the flu. Hopefully not even that bad. [Reply]
If we assume there are already millions of people with this as numbers suggest and it spreads that fast, I’d say that should end the testing as many people as possible discussion. It would be a colossal waste of time and money. We know people have it. We don’t need to test them.
Take Lewdog’s work for example. The only way testing would have any impact at on preventing the people there from spreading amongst themselves and the community is if every single worker was tested right away. Additionally, they would all have to self isolate until the results are in. No kids, spouses, stores, etc. Furthermore, all those infected would have to isolate for another two weeks. It’s a hospital right? Can it still run if 20% are left home? Maybe. So let’s say all of that happens, people miraculously follow through, and the place can stay open.
But then what about the 15-30% false negative rate? One can just assume some will test negative, be asymptomatic, and immediately start spreading it throughout the hospital all over again. So you’ve really accomplished next to nothing for the place as a whole. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
My theory on it is that they will have a higher peak now, but they’ll be done faster and can get back to life or some semblance of it
Where as these other places that locked down so hard are gonna either have a second spike and have to do this again or have a drawn out lock down. That’s gonna cause a whole host of other issues and if they end up having to lock down again, I dunno that people will handle it
I am really starting to buy into the theory there is multiple strains and one is more lethal than the others.
Cuomo said today that NY didn't have the strain from China, it came from Europe whereas CA has the China strain. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
If that’s the case though (I think it probably is) and it was spreading then, why wasn’t any of our hospitals over run?
I think this is another thing we may have undersold a bit when we first started with all this. Our hospitals and medical system is here legitimately better than anywhere in the world
Let's look at it this way, our models and medical professionals have not got a damn thing right about this so far. The models had millions dying and that didn't happen. NY was screaming for 30,000 additional ventilators and beds and all this shit and guess what? They don't need them. We were told even with the lockdowns our hospitals would be war zones. CA was talking about getting people out of retirement and what not. Did that happen? No and not only no but most of the country is laying off doctors and nurses.
At what point do you call this shit out? Yes, people are dying. Yes, we don't want to be careless. But no, most of what we have been told has been accurate. [Reply]
Yeah, yeah. You have nothing to back that idea up but a bunch of conspiracy bull.
Look at how they're just figuring out there were deaths earlier than we thought. We weren't testing at a high scale, and we didn't entirely know what to look for in the virus. Look at how we're just figuring out the COVID toes thing. It took weeks to figure out the digestive symptoms were a thing.
Odds are extremely high that they're missing cases and deaths. It's not like millions of cases but when you don't know all the things you're supposed to be looking for, you aren't going to catch everything. It's common sense. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Seriously though, even if you have it you will be fine dude. Did you hear The Saints head coach about this? The media would have people think this is a death sentence when in reality as much as people don't want to hear it, it's gonna be like having the flu. Hopefully not even that bad.
Lew has asthma. That makes death from covid a legit concern. I am in the same boat. [Reply]
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
I am really starting to buy into the theory there is multiple strains and one is more lethal than the others.
Cuomo said today that NY didn't have the strain from China, it came from Europe whereas CA has the China strain.
Might be but you also have to look at viral load. A person in L.A. is exposed to the virus say while at work or at the store. But then then get in their car, drive to their home that isn't shared with anyone else.
In NY you get the same plus you get on the subway that everyone else rides and stand literally inches away from other people during said ride. Then you walk shoulder to shoulder to your apartment where you open the same door everyone else is opening, ride the same elevator everyone else is riding and then go down the same hallway to your apartment that everyone else walks down.
In other words you are constantly exposed no matter where you go.
so different strains? Possibly, sure. But also the amount of exposure I think seems to be in play as well. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
Yeah, yeah. You have nothing to back that idea up but a bunch of conspiracy bull.
Look at how they're just figuring out there were deaths earlier than we thought. We weren't testing at a high scale, and we didn't entirely know what to look for in the virus. Look at how we're just figuring out the COVID toes thing. It took weeks to figure out the digestive symptoms were a thing.
Odds are extremely high that they're missing cases and deaths. It's not like millions of cases but when you don't know all the things you're supposed to be looking for, you aren't going to catch everything. It's common sense.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Let's look at it this way, our models and medical professionals have not got a damn thing right about this so far. The models had millions dying and that didn't happen. NY was screaming for 30,000 additional ventilators and beds and all this shit and guess what? They don't need them. We were told even with the lockdowns our hospitals would be war zones. CA was talking about getting people out of retirement and what not. Did that happen? No and not only no but most of the country is laying off doctors and nurses.
At what point do you call this shit out? Yes, people are dying. Yes, we don't want to be careless. But no, most of what we have been told has been accurate.
I think people are missing this as well. It wasn’t millions of deaths in a month. Wasn’t that like over a year? [Reply]