Responsible contracts — including Paul Goldchmidt’s — have the Cardinals set up nicely for the future
By Bernie Miklasz Mar 25, 2019
By acquiring first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and signing him to a five-year contract extension, the Cardinals seem to reaffirmed their “Win Now!” philosophy for 2019. That became a popular media meme during the final days of spring training.
I find this interesting for multiple reasons.
If 2019 is about winning now, then what about 2018, 2017 and 2016? The Cardinals missed the playoffs in all three seasons. Why not try to “Win Now” when approaching every season?
The Cardinals are a smart, efficient, well-run organization with vast financial resources and a healthy supply of prospects.
As far as I can tell, nothing prevented the Cardinals from making bold trades in recent seasons. The front office was free to make any move that inspired them into action.
And isn’t the Goldschmidt deal more of an example of jumping at an opportunity to secure a superb all-around player?
When a talent of Goldschmidt’s magnitude is available, you take advantage of the opportunity. Especially when the price — sending pitcher Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly and a minor-league infielder to Arizona — was a fairly pain-free exchange that didn’t reduce the Cardinals’ chances of returning to the playoffs in 2019.
This was a proverbial no-brainer, not a seismic shift in philosophy. I don’t think this translated into a “Win Now” move; it translates into a winning move, a common-sense move.
How many Goldschmidt-type players surface on the trade market? And given the terms of this trade, how could the Cardinals possibly say no?
Acquiring Goldschmidt was an obvious addition, but I give Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak credit for backing up the trade by quickly signing Goldy to the contract extension.
Not that they had much of a choice. You don’t bring Goldschmidt here for a year, then let him stroll away. Convincing Goldschmidt to stay with the Cardinals beyond 2019 didn’t profile as an arduous challenge — it’s a natural fit — but it’s always a mistake to take these things for granted. The Cardinals got it done, and that’s what counts.
Kudos.
Here’s the more fascinating part — at least for me, anyway …
For all of the talk about winning now, this new Goldschmidt/Cardinals partnership is about setting up the Cardinals for a potentially special future.
Sure, Goldy can help the Cardinals accomplish their goals in 2019. But by securing him as their first baseman through 2024 — and at a reasonable cost — the Cardinals are poised for sustained success. But only if they’re adept, and aggressive at building their team around him.
Goldschmidt will make $14.5 million this season in the final year of the last contract he signed with Arizona. The five-year extension for $130 million begins in 2020, and the Cardinals will pay Goldy an average of just more than $24 million over the next six seasons.
That affordable deal does not crush or squeeze the payroll. The Cardinals are in no danger of entering luxury-tax hell. Goldy’s annual compensation leaves plenty of space for safe payroll maneuvering.
That applies to the summer of 2019. The current St. Louis payroll sits at $159.4 million, according to Spotrac. That projected number can easily accommodate additional salaries should the Cardinals decide to get busy and strengthen troublesome roster spots via trade.
Beyond that, the Cardinals are looking at a phase of enviable cost certainty. Goldschmidt helped; he didn’t insist on breaking the bank.
Let’s walk through this, shall we?
(Note: The salary data for the basic payroll information came from Spotrac.)
Starting pitching
The Cardinals’ five-man rotation will cost $29.2 million this season. That’s truly economical, representing about 18.7 percent of the total team payroll for 2019. In the National League, 11 teams have a higher percentage of payroll dollars tied up in their starting pitching than St. Louis this season.
The Cubs are spending more on starting pitching than any team in the majors: $100.345 million, or 48 percent of their payroll.
Wait, there’s more: Spotrac included Carlos Martinez in the Cards’ rotation, and his salary for 2019 is $11.7 million. But suppose Martinez — when healthy — pitches out of the bullpen?
If Martinez isn’t included, the five-man rotation of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright would cost $18.2 million.
For perspective, digest this: The Cubs are paying three starters — individually — $20 million or more this season (Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels).
Overall, Spotrac projects the Cardinals to allocate $56 million on pitching this season for a workable 35 percent of the payroll. And even if Martinez ends up starting, the Cardinals will have a cost-efficient rotation. They’ll be pouring less money into their rotation than multiple hopeless teams, including the Kansas City Royals.
This could be interpreted another way: The Cardinals could have pumped more cash into their 2019 rotation. And perhaps they will, if an urgent need arises during the season.
The rotation may cost even less in 2020; Wacha and Wainwright can become free agents after this season. (Mikolas, however, is set to make $17 million a year through 2023 when his new contract goes online next season.)
There are no onerous contracts here.
What the Cardinals have, for the most part, are young starters lined up who won’t be eligible for free agency for several years.
John Gant can head to free agency in 2023. Jack Flaherty and prime reliever Jordan Hicks won’t become free agents until 2024. Dakota Hudson, Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon are eligible for free agency in 2025.
If Carlos Martinez fades, the Cardinals can get out of his contract after the 2021 season. (More on that later.)
And this trend will likely continue, as the Cardinals have other young starters in development. And with so much pitching, there won’t be enough big-league jobs for all of the arms. Not a problem. Teams covet young pitching in trades, and the Cardinals will have assets to peddle.
The low cost of their starting pitching obviously gives this team flexibility to funnel resources into other parts of the team. Or, for that matter, to acquire or sign an expensive veteran starting pitcher to join the young arms. (Think of Houston’s late-season trade for Justin Verlander in 2017.)
Few long-term obligations
Let’s go through this, year by year.
After the 2019 season- Eligible for free agency: Left fielder Marcell Ozuna, starting pitchers Wacha and Wainwright and backup catcher Matt Wieters.
- Options: The Cardinals can pay third baseman Matt Carpenter $18.5 million in 2020 or decline and pay a $2 million buyout. Infielder Jedd Gyorko has a $13 million salary for 2020 that can be terminated with a $1 million buyout.
- Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2020: an estimated $132 million, including the lofty salaries for Goldschmidt and Mikolas.
After the 2020 season- Eligible for free agency: Catcher Yadier Molina and lefty reliever Brett Cecil.
- Options: Second baseman Kolten Wong is due $12.5 million in 2021 unless the Cardinals pay a $1 million buyout. The Cards have a $12.5 million option on lefty reliever Andrew Miller. The option automatically kicks in if Miller pitches 110 combined innings over the 2019 and ‘20 seasons. If the option doesn’t vest, the Cardinals can buy out Miller for $2.5 million.
- Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2021: approximately $79 million.
After the 2021 season- Eligible for free agency: Outfielder Dexter Fowler and righty reliever Dominic Leone.
- Options: The Cardinals have a $17 million option on Carlos Martinez for 2022, then another option ($18 million) for 2023. But it would be easy for the team to walk away from both seasons by paying an affordable ($500,000) buyout after the 2021 season.
- Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2022: an estimated $49.6 million.
After the 2022 season- Free agents: Pitchers Alex Reyes and Gant.
- Options: If the Cardinals pick up the option on Carlos Martinez for 2022, they can decline the $18 million option for 2023 at no cost (no buyout necessary).
- Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2023: about $52 million.
Rather than go deeper into this, I’ll summarize a couple of other situations in the distant future.
Center fielder Harrison Bader can become a free agent after the 2023 season.
Off in the horizon is shortstop Paul DeJong, who is under contract through at least 2023 as part of a six-year, $26 million deal signed last year. DeJong averages an affordable $6.5 million over the final three seasons of that contract, and the Cardinals will have to make a call on his $12.5 million option for 2024 (buyout: $2 million). If the Cardinals stay with DeJong in ‘24, they’ll have a $15 million option on him for 2025 that can be terminated with a $1 million.
As you can see, the Cardinals have a rather large canvas to work with over the next several years. The only substantial contracts of any real length belong to Goldschmidt and Mikolas. And maybe DeJong if the Cardinals ride with him through 2025.
In future years, the collection of young pitching will keep the payroll in check. But the Cardinals are also looking at a parade of outfielders and third basemen making their way to Busch Stadium in due time.
According to the evaluations by MLB Pipeline at MLB.com, 13 of the Cardinals’ top 30 prospects are pitchers (including Reyes and Hudson).
Seven are outfielders. Three are third basemen. (The big name there is power-hitting third baseman Nolan Gorman, the team’s No. 2 prospect.) And catcher Andrew Knizner (No. 3) is widely viewed as Molina’s successor; that made it easy to include Carson Kelly in the Goldschmidt deal.
Goldschmidt noticed the abundance of young talent around him during spring training.
“I think (the talent level) just confirmed what I saw from the outside,” Goldschmidt told Jen Langosch of MLB.com. “I remember last year (watching) the Cardinals (and noticing), there was a little bit of a turnover from where it went from being a little older team to a lot of really young guys.
“This team has the opportunity to be good for the next five or six years, because all these guys have only been in the big leagues for one year or two years. They’re guys who are still under contract for a couple years. The organization has potentially set itself up to be successful.”
And the Cardinals’ new first baseman is a big part of that. Since Albert Pujols last manned first base for the Cardinals — in Game 7 of the 2011 World Series — the team has started 20 different players at first base. Only two started 100 or more games at first base in a season: Matt Adams in 2014 and Carpenter in 2017.
The first-base carousel is shutting down. Except for the occasional off-day, Goldy can be counted on to handle first base for the next six seasons.
In his seven full seasons for Arizona, he started 150 or more games five times, and averaged 145 starts per year.
Now that they’ve finally ended the chaos at first base, the Cardinals can shift their focus to other positions in the effort to “Win Now.”
And “Win For A Long Time.”
Goldschmidt’s contract — and his presence — can make a real difference. But only if the front office can take advantage of the Goldschmidt years, the young pitching and the payroll flexibility that opens a myriad of possibilities.
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