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The Lounge>****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread****
BigRedChief 03:23 AM 01-10-2019
Cardinals announce 25-man Opening Day roster for the 2019 season.
Spoiler!

2019 Opening Day Line up
Spoiler!

[Reply]
BigRedChief 07:49 AM 08-21-2019
Originally Posted by BDj23:
lol @ Matt Carpenter
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Carpenter couldn't have looked any more inept there with the bases loaded and 1 out. It was like he was disinterested in hitting a baseball.
He just needs to pack it in for this year. Look at Fowlers example, he was a disaster last year, he's at least near average now. Try again to get on track next year. He just looks lost. The division is there for the taking thanks to the Cubs. His AB's are killing us.
[Reply]
Marcellus 08:38 AM 08-21-2019
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
He just needs to pack it in for this year. Look at Fowlers example, he was a disaster last year, he's at least near average now. Try again to get on track next year. He just looks lost. The division is there for the taking thanks to the Cubs. His AB's are killing us.
This isn't a slump at all, if you go back to last September the guy hasn't hit for a full year. They have given him more than ample opportunity to come out of it, may as well IR him.

That extension is possibly the dumbest thing Mo has done on a long list of dumb moves. There was ZERO reason to do anything with Carps contract.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 09:00 AM 08-21-2019
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
are you sure he shouldn’t be given Ozuna’s spot in LF next year? Seems to me that any level, no matter how much time he is there, he still smashes.

———————————————
Hitter of the Week: Dylan Carlson, OF
Stats (w/ Memphis): 4 G, 17 AB, 3 R, 7 H, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 5 K

After earning a promotion to Triple-A, the 20-year-old top prospect absolutely mashed in a four-game set against the division-leading Iowa Cubs. He was 7-for-17 with four extra-bas hits, launching his first Triple-A homer in the final game of the series.
Nah, I'm not gonna force him onto the 40 man just yet and I still think the Cardinals BADLY need to figure out this OF jam.

They're dicking up their 40 man and moving guys out just taking wild-ass guesses as to who can actually play because they refuse to give some of these kids extended run.

We still don't know enough about Thomas, Arozarena or even O'Neill. And in a perfect world I'd be moving towards an OF that has two openings in the corners (I still believe in Bader in CF) so we could sort some of that stuff out.

They have far too many questions that need immediate answers to promote a 20 yr old to the starting lineup. I'm not saying he can't assume that role at some point next season (yes, Marcel Ozuna will walk; the payroll structure virtually demands it), but I think you need to start the year with some of these other guys that are getting up there in age for prospects. You need to shit or get off the pot with some of them or at least clear other guys out to make room for them.

The 2021 squad will look significantly different. I think you're probably talking about an OF with Bader, Carlson and Thomas (if I had to guess). But you can't even enter 2021 confidently if you can't get that quartet of young OFers enough playing time to figure out who they are. You can't figure out which one of them can/should be traded for a shorter term fix at 3b while Gorman develops or an arm that can replace the scattered remains of Reyes (and Wainwright) at the back of the rotation.

They have prospects that can't build value and won't be played. That's a recipe for some incredibly bad roster decisions. They need to address those guys first and worry about Carlson later. The kid isn't even Rule 5 eligible yet - there's still so much time.
[Reply]
raybec 4 09:05 AM 08-21-2019
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Nah, I'm not gonna force him onto the 40 man just yet and I still think the Cardinals BADLY need to figure out this OF jam.

They're dicking up their 40 man and moving guys out just taking wild-ass guesses as to who can actually play because they refuse to give some of these kids extended run.

We still don't know enough about Thomas, Arozarena or even O'Neill. And in a perfect world I'd be moving towards an OF that has two openings in the corners (I still believe in Bader in CF) so we could sort some of that stuff out.

They have far too many questions that need immediate answers to promote a 20 yr old to the starting lineup. I'm not saying he can't assume that role at some point next season (yes, Marcel Ozuna will walk; the payroll structure virtually demands it), but I think you need to start the year with some of these other guys that are getting up there in age for prospects. You need to shit or get off the pot with some of them or at least clear other guys out to make room for them.

The 2021 squad will look significantly different. I think you're probably talking about an OF with Bader, Carlson and Thomas (if I had to guess). But you can't even enter 2021 confidently if you can't get that quartet of young OFers enough playing time to figure out who they are. You can't figure out which one of them can/should be traded for a shorter term fix at 3b while Gorman develops or an arm that can replace the scattered remains of Reyes (and Wainwright) at the back of the rotation.

They have prospects that can't build value and won't be played. That's a recipe for some incredibly bad roster decisions. They need to address those guys first and worry about Carlson later. The kid isn't even Rule 5 eligible yet - there's still so much time.
Oh come on DJ, we should all trust Mo to make the right moves for the team. His track record is stellar and. I think he’s earned our respect and trust.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 09:14 AM 08-21-2019
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
Gorman being the higher rated but higher risk prospect would come in handy for the Cardinals in that situation, but with Devers at third, Gorman is limited to first only, which diminishes his value to them.

Flaherty's recent turnaround probably makes him their most untouchable asset, because he's pitching like an ace, then it's Carlson, then Gorman.

I just hope that fans realize that 2018 was a massive outlier, and that Betts is probably a 6 win player and not an 8-10 level Trout-type guy.
Yeah, 2018 isn't happening for him again. That wasn't quite an historically great season, but it wasn't far removed.

But lets take 2016 as a baseline and then improve on it a bit because he's clearly taken a step forward since then with his plate discipline. Yeah, that's a 6-7 win player - which is pretty damn elite in its own right. It's not Trout - nobody's Trout. But it's 'top 5-8 player in MLB' good.

I also think he'll age a little better than many because he combines good 'old man skills' in his plate discipline and functional power with plus athleticism. It's damn near impossible to trust anything from the steroid era but Steve Finley kinda springs to mind. Maybe a rich man's Johnny Damon?

My concern is that I was also thinking "well Marquis Grissom played a lot like Betts in his prime and I remember him being awfully good in his later years..." but I forgot that he kinda sucked from 30-34 before he recaptured his form in his last couple of seasons. So there are obviously examples of guys like Betts who didn't age well.

I'm not giving Flaherty or Carlson for him, not when we have already set so much payroll on fire that we can't really build around his deal without those young guys. But if I could get one of these OFers moved for someone like Camargo to replace Carpenter at 3b and then deal Gorman with a couple of add-ins, I'd have to consider it.

Let's not act like the Bosox can ask the world for him - the market on guys like that just hasn't been terribly robust. And when a deal like Goldschmidt implodes as magnificently as that one did, it only makes those deals harder for teams to make.
[Reply]
jd1020 11:07 AM 08-21-2019
How does Betts compare to trading for Goldschmidt, though?

He's 26, compared to 31, and the last season Goldschmidt had in the Betts ballpark in terms of WAR was 2015. The Cardinals traded for a guy exiting his prime and who plays a position that if his bat disappears then so does his entire value.

I would think the Manny Machado trade would be a much closer comparison and that came with 2 months to go, no QO offer on the table, and they got 5 guys with 1 top 100 player.

Last I checked Betts was 2nd in fWAR to Trout since his first full season. Hes a 5 tool player and given the extra time on the roster over Machado and the fallback of a QO then I would suspect they would have every right to be asking for a top 50 guy and probably a top 100 guy with some lotteries. The Cardinals gave up guys that didnt look like major leaguers when they were traded. Did you honestly think Kelly would be a better hit than Knizner, at least for this season, and Luke Weaver would nearly double his career WAR in 11 starts?
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DJ's left nut 01:24 PM 08-21-2019
Admittedly poorly; Betts is a much more valuable property than Goldschmidt.

You're right that Machado was the better comp, even as a mid-season trade. That said, I thought the return on Machado was really poor. The Orioles took quantity over quality and in the end I'd be surprised to see any of those guys be genuine impact players. It wouldn't shock me if none of them ended up a starter or if 2 or 3 of them never saw significant big league action.

I don't the Red Sox will accept that kind of return. Nor do I think there are too many teams out there that are still dumb enough to overpay for a single year of a player like John Mozeliak.

Because truly that is all you're getting in that deal - 1 year. The Red Sox aren't getting 2 top 25 prospects (I suspect Carlson and Gorman break that threshold this offseason) and a guy in Flaherty who is MORE valuable than any top 25 prospect due to his major league performance for a single year.

They may get 1 top 25 guy, another pitcher in Weaver's class and then a high potential guy with a less critical role.

So had the Cardinals not gutted their depth in the ill-fated Goldschmidt deal they could offer something like Gorman, Hudson and Fernandez. But with Weaver gone and Kelly not being around to try to backfill the rotation/depth losses of Hudson/Fernandez, I don't think the Cardinals could even afford to do THAT.

And I don't think the Red Sox will get an appreciably better offer unless a team like the Dodgers just decides that they want to burn some powder up and move Lux.

And the really interesting thing is that the Dodgers might be smart to do it given that they have Seager at SS and Bellinger's long-term future probably isn't best served in CF.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 09:24 PM 08-21-2019
Carpenter is killing us. He looks pathetic. It’s not a fucking slump. 120+ games into the season. He’s not turning it around. Your hurting the team. Someone grow a pair like you care about winning more than upsetting a way way way underperforming vet.
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