Watson goes to the Jets. Tribusky to the Browns. Kizer to the Texans.
This is what Terez says about #27:
Originally Posted by :
27. Kansas City Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech
The pressure is on Alex Smith to deliver, and while he is indeed their quarterback for 2017, the cap-tight Chiefs could save $17 million by releasing him next year. They could also create some cap room by extending him, but the point is, his future will likely be determined by how he fares this season.
That said, someone like Mahomes — who ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay recently called a cross between Brett Favre and Johnny Manziel — could be tempting to the Chiefs, who have done plenty of background work on him. He’s a gunslinger with a cannon for an arm and plus intangibles, but he’s very raw and will likely need at least a year to get accustomed to the lengthy verbiage in coach Andy Reid’s playbook. Mahomes has never had to call lengthy plays with regularity, and that’s something all quarterbacks have to do in Kansas City. The good news is that Reid is very good at scheming up concepts for his quarterbacks, so they often make predetermined reads, and with Mahomes’ arm and willingness to chuck it deep, he could potentially open up the playbook in a way Chiefs fans haven’t seen consistently.
By the way, one other bonus to selecting a quarterback early — he’ll be very cheap for the next five years. For a team that has been tight against the cap for the last several years, that would be a boon.
Of course, other teams watch tape, too, and there’s a chance none of the top four quarterbacks — Mahomes, Kizer, Trubisky and Watson — will be here, especially if Arizona takes a quarterback at No. 13. And if the top four quarterbacks are off the board, the Chiefs might be best served trading down or taking the best player available and perhaps addressing quarterback in one of the next two rounds with the likes of Pittsburgh’s Nathan Peterman, Cal’s Davis Webb, Tennessee’s Josh Dobbs or Miami’s Brad Kaaya.
But let’s say they keep the pick. Possible options include a defensive tackle like Florida’s Caleb Brantley or a cornerback like Washington’s Kevin King, Florida’s Quincy Wilson and Southern California’s Adoree’ Jackson (the Chiefs met with the latter two at the combine, by the way).
I also gave some serious thought here to Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey, because the Chiefs could use a dynamic home-run hitting back after the release of Jamaal Charles. McCaffrey was one of the combine’s top testers at his position and offers unique versatility as a runner and receiver. Still, I just can’t pick him to the Chiefs in the first, because — fun tidbit — Reid and Dorsey have never selected a running back in the first round. Not once, even dating back to the Green Bay and Philadelphia days. So if they did take him this high, they’d be bucking their trend.
Who would you take? Who would you take if no QB was on the board? [Reply]
I like the idea of McCaffrey in that it allows us to carry an extra player somewhere else. Because of his versatility, you could carry 1 less wr or rb and an extra dl or something on gameday [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
I like the idea of McCaffrey in that it allows us to carry an extra player somewhere else. Because of his versatility, you could carry 1 less wr or rb and an extra dl or something on gameday
So who do his yards come at the expense of?
Because 'Even Steven' under center is incapable of producing MORE yards or points, he just produces them differently regardless of the weapons we have. So if you bring in McCaffrey, his yardage will just come at the expense of Ware, Kelce, Hill, Maclin and Conley. It will not come in addition to their yards.
Alex Smith is incapable of being more productive than average regardless of the weapons you give him. Surround him with HoFers and he's throwing for 3800 yards and running for 200 more while being responsible for somewhere between 18 and 23 TDs.
Give him utter tripe and he's throwing for 3300 yards while running for 400 more and being responsible for somwhere between 17 and 22 total TDs.
Stop bothering. Stop getting him linemen. Stop getting him receivers or running backs. Stop using capital to try to improve his situation because it just doesn't goddamn matter - he is going to throw for 220-230 YPG and run for another 20ish. And if the passing yards go up, the rushing yards will come down. You're looking at 230-240 yards per game in total offense from Alex Smith regardless of who you give him.
So burning another 1st round pick on him would be goddamn retarded because in the end, all it's going to do is change the 'how' on the yardage and points, it ain't gonna change the 'how much'. And it won't change the 'when' - which is to say that when we need him most, he'll turtle and dump it off while your shiny first round draft pick is running uncovered down the center of the field.
He's the absolute pinnacle of mediocrity. I've never seen anything like it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
So who do his yards come at the expense of?
Because 'Even Steven' under center is incapable of producing MORE yards or points, he just produces them differently regardless of the weapons we have. So if you bring in McCaffrey, his yardage will just come at the expense of Ware, Kelce, Hill, Maclin and Conley. It will not come in addition to their yards.
Alex Smith is incapable of being more productive than average regardless of the weapons you give him. Surround him with HoFers and he's throwing for 3800 yards and running for 200 more while being responsible for somewhere between 18 and 23 TDs.
Give him utter tripe and he's throwing for 3300 yards while running for 400 more and being responsible for somwhere between 17 and 22 total TDs.
Stop bothering. Stop getting him linemen. Stop getting him receivers or running backs. Stop using capital to try to improve his situation because it just doesn't goddamn matter - he is going to throw for 220-230 YPG and run for another 20ish. And if the passing yards go up, the rushing yards will come down. You're looking at 230-240 yards per game in total offense from Alex Smith regardless of who you give him.
So burning another 1st round pick on him would be goddamn retarded because in the end, all it's going to do is change the 'how' on the yardage and points, it ain't gonna change the 'how much'. And it won't change the 'when' - which is to say that when we need him most, he'll turtle and dump it off while your shiny first round draft pick is running uncovered down the center of the field.
He's the absolute pinnacle of mediocrity. I've never seen anything like it.
They've essentially set them up to have to move on from smith next year at this point, financially.
It depends how they can play their board. At this point, a qb of the future is obviously a priority, I was just pointing out McCaffrey as a player in a vacuum. He's gonna be a really good pro somewhere and I think in a Reid's offense, with the other weapons here, we'd be awesome. [Reply]
I think at this point, we have enough data to make a conclusion on the current qb. He did his job here and I'm grateful. Now it's time to take it to the next level. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
I think at this point, we have enough data to make a conclusion on the current qb. He did his job here and I'm grateful. Now it's time to take it to the next level.
That's exactly the point. He was precisely what they needed to go from 2-14 to respectable. He's maxed out, time to improve. He's certainly not bad, he just isn't going to get better. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chiefnj2:
Based on the fact that he's not that good and is the 4th or 5th ranked QB in a semi-poor draft class.
4th or 5th ranked depending on who you talk to. Just like every other qb in this class he has warts but he has the best arm in the class and if his foot work was better he'd be easily top 2. We'll see come draft day but I bet he goes top 25. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Then we take Kizer.
I don't think they'll both be gone by our pick. And frankly, I think O'Brien would prefer Kizer to Mahomes but that's just my impression.
I get this feeling too. after teh osweiler fiasco, just feel o'brien is gonna want a guy that will toe the line on and off the field. not sure mahomes is a trustworthy "program" guy this year. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks:
Will say this much.. when you flop, you do it with vigorous conviction! :-)
Backed the guy for 4 years - thought he was good enough to take us where we need to go.
He isn't. It's not a flop - it's simply giving a guy plenty of rope and watching him hang himself.
Smith has been a virtually identical player for his 4 years here and the talent put around him hasn't changed things. When his supporting cast is bad, that's a good team. When his supporting cast is good, he's the governor; the limiting factor that keeps the team from taking the next step.
He's served his purpose and it's time to replace him. [Reply]
