The numbers on the semi destroyed what anyone thought possible.
- 0-60 in 5 sec
- 0-60 in 20 sec under max gross payload of 80k lbs
- 65mph up 5% grade under max lied, compared to 45mph for ICE semi
- 500 mile range
- 400 miles of additional range after 30 min charge
- Guaranteed 7¢/kWh fuel cost(solar) compared to volatile oil
- Nuclear explosion proof glass(apparently cracked windshield takes semi off road)
- 1 million mile guarantee it won't breakdown
- Will never need a brake change
- "Impossible" to jacknife
- Beats semis on economics day 1
- In convoy mode, beats rail on economics
300 miles of range: $150,000
500 miles of range: $180,000
Founders series: $200,000
https://youtu.be/CBTQnmUolas
The Roadster was a complete surprise, and the numbers given destroy any production car you can think of, even a Koenisegg.
- 0-60 in 1.9 sec (this is faster than most Formula 1 cars)
- 0-100 in 4.2
- 1/4 mile in 8.9 sec
- 250+ mph top speed
- 621 mile range (That's Kansas City to Denver without fueling)
- 10,000 nm torque
and that's the base model. Starting at $200k and Founders series at $250k. Destroys million dollar cars.
Also teased a rendering image of a consumer pickup truck with a normal truck in the bed.
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Looks like Elon's turning his creative attention toward the pickup truck. It's gotta be at least 4-5 years out, but this is an interesting feature to think about.
Pickup truck will have power outlets allowing use of heavy duty 240V, high power tools in field all day. No generator needed.
Interesting. I'll be watching to see if Elon takes cues from guys who actually use trucks for work. The self adjusting suspension is a good start. Hell, put an air compressor and a tow winch in there too while you're at it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Couch-Potato:
Anyone here work in outside sales? Drive a company car? ...I've been tossing around the idea of a Fleet Co that leases only Tesla Vehicles with the Self Driving feature. For professional organizations moving from car allowance to fleet cars is already an established bottom line mover, imagine how much more efficient electric cars would be. But the big win is in how much more efficient your salesforce would be. Sales people are constantly juggling whether they should be on the road, phone, or computer. With this technology they can be on all three at once!
I don't but work plenty with them. It's a huge issue. And it's not just sales. Contractors are always on their phone too, often checking in on their next appointment. The reason I think automation will take off isn't individual cars, it's businesses that will recognize how much productivity is wasted while driving cars. It will likely start with transportation off roads (rail, within a business facility) then be introduced to public roads. Just know that there are a lot of people trying to roadblock this from scaling, so know that the market will be very very slow to develop. And understandably so... The unfortunate byproduct is that when you introduce more driverless commercial fleet, you inevitably gut a ton of people too. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Interesting - that's actually better than I would have guessed. The Model X is probably the closest thing we have to compare to, and it gets around 2.9 miles per KWh. The truck would certainly be heavier than that, so let's assume it gets 2.0 miles per KWh. That would mean a 100 KWh battery could drive around 80 miles (40 KWh) after the usage you described above.
Mind you, I'm making the assumption that a 100 KWh battery is the minimum of what it will come with (based on other specs Elon is tweeting). That probably means we're talking about a $100k+ vehicle. So it isn't exactly going to be the vehicle of choice for your average good ol' boy.
My numbers may be WAY off. That's just the welder we have. Guys that do it for a living may use far more than that rig would. But I'd bet pros could get 45 minutes out of an hour burning rod.
As far as cost, I don't know what a 1 ton diesel dually costs, but it's not that far from 100 I'd bet.
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
Interesting. I'll be watching to see if Elon takes cues from guys who actually use trucks for work. The self adjusting suspension is a good start. Hell, put an air compressor and a tow winch in there too while you're at it.
Most guys that work out of their trucks will want to use their own stuff. But getting enough amps for a welder plasma cutter and 2 stage compressor would be a pretty huge deal in my mind. [Reply]
Once they get their manufacturing issues solved they really need to concentrate on getting the prices down to a level enough consumers can afford to make Tesla profitable. Until then Elon should probably quit calling people pedos for no reason.
1 in 4 Tesla Model 3 orders has been canceled, analyst says
Tesla is finally making enough cars -- it just can't sell enough of them.
Cancellations for Model 3 orders have picked up in recent weeks. Refunds now outpace deposits for Tesla's new mass-market electric car, according to Needham & Co. analyst Rajvindra Gill. Tesla is pushing back on his findings.
In an analyst note delivered to clients Thursday, Gill cited extended wait times for the car, the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit, and the fact that Tesla has not yet made the $35,000 base model of the car available for purchase yet.
About one in every four Model 3 orders is canceled -- double the rate from a year ago, Gill said. Customers have to put down a refundable $1,000 deposit to reserve a Model 3, then pay another $2,500 to choose their specific version. They pay the rest when the car is delivered.
The wait time for a Model 3 is about 4 months to a year, and base model customers could wait until 2020, Gill said.
A Tesla spokesperson denied that Model 3 cancellations exceed new orders. The spokesperson also said the wait times that Gill cites are outdated. Tesla's website currently lists wait times from 1 month to 9 months.
Gill called sales of the Model S and Model X "lackluster," especially with the growing amount of competition from luxury manufacturers. Tesla announced earlier this month that orders and deliveries of those models grew last quarter. The company is also maintaining its delivery target of 100,000 vehicles.
He doubts Tesla will reach its target of 100,000 Model 3 deliveries by the end of the year -- to accomplish that goal would require it would have to ship 27% more cars in the second half of the year than it did in the first half. Gill said that he's also "skeptical of demand" for the sedan.
In another warning, the analyst said Tesla's capital structure is also "unsustainable," as free cash flow continues to evaporate. Gill expects Tesla to burn through $6 billion by 2020. He wrote that the Tesla stock is "still overvalued" despite falling 16% from its June 2017 peak.
He downgraded Tesla (TSLA) stock to "underperform" -- essentially a sell rating.
Tesla has been struggling with the Model 3 for several months. Separately, investors aren't thrilled with founder Elon Musk's antics on Twitter.
I never understand people thinking these cancellations are a huge deal.
They had over 400,000 reservations, if 1 in 4 cancel they still sold 300,000 Model 3's in advance of 1 even being built.
We've never seen anything like that in the car industry before. I see these things every day now in Atlanta, and I'm guessing that will continue for years.
In 2017 BMW sold 305,000 cars total in the USA. That's every single 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, X3, X4, X5, X6, M, Z, i cars all included. Mercedes sold a hair under 338,000 total.
Tesla, a little start up in California that only makes electric cars, and the 2 biggest luxury brands on the planet. For comparison's sake. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bewbies:
I never understand people thinking these cancellations are a huge deal.
They had over 400,000 reservations, if 1 in 4 cancel they still sold 300,000 Model 3's in advance of 1 even being built.
We've never seen anything like that in the car industry before. I see these things every day now in Atlanta, and I'm guessing that will continue for years.
In 2017 BMW sold 305,000 cars total in the USA. That's every single 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, X3, X4, X5, X6, M, Z, i cars all included. Mercedes sold a hair under 338,000 total.
Tesla, a little start up in California that only makes electric cars, and the 2 biggest luxury brands on the planet. For comparison's sake.
Originally Posted by Bewbies:
I never understand people thinking these cancellations are a huge deal.
They had over 400,000 reservations, if 1 in 4 cancel they still sold 300,000 Model 3's in advance of 1 even being built.
We've never seen anything like that in the car industry before. I see these things every day now in Atlanta, and I'm guessing that will continue for years.
In 2017 BMW sold 305,000 cars total in the USA. That's every single 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, X3, X4, X5, X6, M, Z, i cars all included. Mercedes sold a hair under 338,000 total.
Tesla, a little start up in California that only makes electric cars, and the 2 biggest luxury brands on the planet. For comparison's sake.
One is a start-up struggling to stay alive who can't exist without subsidies, has massive production shortfalls, does not currently offer a single product that is price pointed for 95% of the market and whose stock value just got downgraded to 'buy'.
Originally Posted by vailpass: Once they get their manufacturing issues solved they really need to concentrate on getting the prices down to a level enough consumers can afford to make Tesla profitable. Until then Elon should probably quit calling people pedos for no reason.
1 in 4 Tesla Model 3 orders has been canceled, analyst says
Tesla is finally making enough cars -- it just can't sell enough of them.
Cancellations for Model 3 orders have picked up in recent weeks. Refunds now outpace deposits for Tesla's new mass-market electric car, according to Needham & Co. analyst Rajvindra Gill. Tesla is pushing back on his findings.
In an analyst note delivered to clients Thursday, Gill cited extended wait times for the car, the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit, and the fact that Tesla has not yet made the $35,000 base model of the car available for purchase yet.
About one in every four Model 3 orders is canceled -- double the rate from a year ago, Gill said. Customers have to put down a refundable $1,000 deposit to reserve a Model 3, then pay another $2,500 to choose their specific version. They pay the rest when the car is delivered.
The wait time for a Model 3 is about 4 months to a year, and base model customers could wait until 2020, Gill said.
A Tesla spokesperson denied that Model 3 cancellations exceed new orders. The spokesperson also said the wait times that Gill cites are outdated. Tesla's website currently lists wait times from 1 month to 9 months.
Gill called sales of the Model S and Model X "lackluster," especially with the growing amount of competition from luxury manufacturers. Tesla announced earlier this month that orders and deliveries of those models grew last quarter. The company is also maintaining its delivery target of 100,000 vehicles.
He doubts Tesla will reach its target of 100,000 Model 3 deliveries by the end of the year -- to accomplish that goal would require it would have to ship 27% more cars in the second half of the year than it did in the first half. Gill said that he's also "skeptical of demand" for the sedan.
In another warning, the analyst said Tesla's capital structure is also "unsustainable," as free cash flow continues to evaporate. Gill expects Tesla to burn through $6 billion by 2020. He wrote that the Tesla stock is "still overvalued" despite falling 16% from its June 2017 peak.
He downgraded Tesla (TSLA) stock to "underperform" -- essentially a sell rating.
Tesla has been struggling with the Model 3 for several months. Separately, investors aren't thrilled with founder Elon Musk's antics on Twitter.
I can only assume he's counting those who chose to forgo their Model 3 reservation in favor of a Model S in his numbers.
(Just checked, guy looks like he's in his 20's, Tweets about reality TV and HGTV more than anything, and lives in NY , so I doubt he has an "insider").
Also, Tesla is THE most shorted stock on the market, so you can't really believe much of any of the negative headlines. 80% are blatantly false or misleading in their face. The rest seem to fail to understand what they're looking at in favor of "the way the alto industry has always done things". Shorters have lost BILLIONS to date. HUGE incentive to spew bullshit. Especially Chanos. [Reply]
I wonder if Tesla will be around in 5 years. The technology is great of course, but it's not new anymore and the mega-manufacturers are catching up, while Tesla hasn't yet been able to deliver on promises of being more than a niche manufacturer or getting any affordable models to market.
It's not going to be long before all their first-mover advantages are gone and Toyota, Honda, BMW, Benz, etc are eating their lunch with their scale and... you know... ability to actually get things made.
They teased a mini-submarine the other weekend. Wonder when preorders for that will start? :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
I wonder if Tesla will be around in 5 years. The technology is great of course, but it's not new anymore and the mega-manufacturers are catching up, while Tesla hasn't yet been able to deliver on promises of being more than a niche manufacturer or getting any affordable models to market.
It's not going to be long before all their first-mover advantages are gone and Toyota, Honda, BMW, Benz, etc are eating their lunch with their scale and... you know... ability to actually get things made.
They teased a mini-submarine the other weekend. Wonder when preorders for that will start? :-)
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
I wonder if Tesla will be around in 5 years. The technology is great of course, but it's not new anymore and the mega-manufacturers are catching up, while Tesla hasn't yet been able to deliver on promises of being more than a niche manufacturer or getting any affordable models to market.
It's not going to be long before all their first-mover advantages are gone and Toyota, Honda, BMW, Benz, etc are eating their lunch with their scale and... you know... ability to actually get things made.
They teased a mini-submarine the other weekend. Wonder when preorders for that will start? :-)
Na, I frankly think you're completely off on all of that. I think part of the issue with the way people evaluate Tesla is that they say "Well, Toyota can crank out XXX number of cars without a problem. Why is it so hard for Tesla?" That completely ignores the fact that electric car technology is still in its infancy and that building them is still really, really hard compared to a gas car.
If nothing else, all of those other companies are probably 10+ years behind Tesla in battery production capabilities. Telsa itself (in partnership with Panasonic) is currently producing about as many Li-ion batteries as the entire rest of the world combined (including phones, laptops, etc.), and they're already planning for at least 2-3 more in the coming years. None of the companies you listed have anywhere near that level of capability, and it costs a fuck ton of money to build them (even in big car company terms).
And even ignoring all that...some might recall that Tesla gave away all of its patents on battery technology years ago. Why? Because Elon doesn't give a shit about "winning." He just wants more electric cars on the road no matter who makes them. [Reply]
Originally Posted by notorious:
People are down on Tesla. That tells me that it’s time to invest heavily, soon.
Just a gut instinct.
I've intentionally chosen not to invest in individual stocks, so I have very little vested interest. But I have a feeling that their earnings call on August 1st will surprise some people. This teardown suggests that they'll make a whopping 30% on the Model 3, which is WAY beyond initial expectations. [Reply]
