Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Perhaps but that doesn't change the numbers as they are now. You would expect things to get better as more people get house arrested.
You're having a hard time with the math on this. This thing has an up to 2 week incubation period. Even in most cases the average time for symptoms to show up is 5 days. That means there are people who could have caught it last weekend or the week before and don't know it yet. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
You're having a hard time with the math on this. This thing has an up to 2 week incubation period. Even in most cases the average time for symptoms to show up is 5 days. That means there are people who could have caught it last weekend and don't know it yet.
Again, that doesn't change the numbers as they are now. We went from a 2.5% death rate down to a 1.25%. I am not arguing, in fact I am saying we will see the number of cases go up but that does not discount the numbers that have accumulated to this point. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Again, that doesn't change the numbers as they are now. We went from a 2.5% death rate down to a 1.25%. I am not arguing, in fact I am saying we will see the number of cases go up but that does not discount the numbers that have accumulated to this point.
I'm not arguing the death rate. I think it's going to keep going down from that as we test more widely.
I'm saying the number of cases is probably going to keep going up for the foreseeable future. I think in a week and a half we'll know how much this has exploded considering by then we'll have been in this shutdown mode a couple weeks. Will we be Italy? I don't know. I think the countries who've put the hammer down on this and slowed it down have probably been more aggressive than us though. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
I'm not arguing the death rate. I think it's going to keep going down from that as we test more widely.
I'm saying the number of cases is probably going to keep going up for the foreseeable future. I think in a week and a half we'll know how much this has exploded considering by then we'll have been in this shutdown mode a couple weeks. Will we be Italy? I don't know. I think the countries who've put the hammer down on this and slowed it down have probably been more aggressive than us though.
That may be. We may surpass Italy in total cases but I think the overall outcome will be much better in this country. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
We've only really been "shut down" a week. We'll probably have a better idea of where we actually sit in another week and a half or so. I am hopeful this week should help. But on the flip side you certainly are going to have a lot of spring break travelers coming home.
I figure there will be a good 6 weeks of shutdown to see an impact. 2 weeks of incubation, 2 weeks of the sickness running it's course, then 2 weeks of healing. I think that will be the first iteration to see if it's been effective. Even if it's not a full shutdown, I don't see how it wouldn't have some sort of positive impact. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
while it is early once more are tested the mortality rate will dip even lower. I know this is a non political thread and I will not take it there HOWEVER if the government and effectively communicate this the panic which is part of the problem will also dip. If you look at WA they've almost stabilized this. I'm to the belief social distancing and lockdowns does work, I think we have an amazing emergency response in this country, our ER doctors, nurse, etc are great. The government should call in the national guard and FEMA to states to seperate the sick from our hospitals, retirement homes, etc to help stop the spread and save the very sick. Time is key here if we can do that going into the warmer months it will help stop some of this and it gives us more time to find medicine to help combat it as well.
I was pretty worried about our healthcare system becoming overwhelmed however everything I've read has been pretty encouraging. The next few weeks will be crucial. Other than testing I think we've made up for lost time.
This is my uneducated opinion but what I've read its possible this thing has mutated. Despite what the media has said that's not always a bad thing if you look at SARS it mutated as well and become less dangerous. If you combine that with everything i've said we are in a good place compared to places like Italy, Spain, and France.
Originally Posted by loochy:
I figure there will be a good 6 weeks of shutdown to see an impact. 2 weeks of incubation, 2 weeks of the sickness running it's course, then 2 weeks of healing. I think that will be the first iteration to see if it's been effective. Even if it's not a full shutdown, I don't see how it wouldn't have some sort of positive impact.
Originally Posted by TLO:
Mutation in a good way/or a bad way?
Good if it mutates to a less viral state. Usually that’s what viruses end up doing. If they’re too deadly they kill the host before they spread. Which isn’t ideal. [Reply]
This is my uneducated opinion but what I've read its possible this thing has mutated. Despite what the media has said that's not always a bad thing if you look at SARS it mutated as well and become less dangerous. If you combine that with everything i've said we are in a good place compared to places like Italy, Spain, and France.
I read that too, just can't remember where. Maybe we can all catch a break and this shit get's tweeked for the better. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Good if it mutates to a less viral state. Usually that’s what viruses end up doing. If they’re too deadly they kill the host before they spread. Which isn’t ideal.
That's what I'm waiting for. It will probably mutate into something much more severe, but less contagious as you just described. [Reply]
Originally Posted by stumppy:
I read that too, just can't remember where. Maybe we can all catch a break and this shit get's tweeked for the better.
I have heard several doctors state as the virus mutates or "adapts" to humans it will become less deadly. As it adapts to live on humans our bodies become better at adapting to it as well and can fight it better is basically what they said. [Reply]
Originally Posted by oaklandhater:
can you think of a worse state to get hit with mass cases ?
You can’t think of a reason those numbers may not reflect reality of growth? This is a perfect example of you not thinking but filtering everything through the lens of looking for fear, which you said helps you. [Reply]