Originally Posted by DRM08:
My point is that the guy is capable of hitting clutch plays and he was arguably the X-Factor in their wins the last two games. He was arguably the X-Factor in their win over the Chiefs earlier in the season too. He played out of his mind in that game.
That's kind of my point.
We both agree that the week 10 game was a high point for Tannehill, right? It wasn't his average game? He had to perform at a much higher level than normal?
How often do you think he does that? It can be all that often, or it wouldn't be him "playing out of his mind," right? So the odds favor that he won't play at that high level this Sunday; that he'll play closer to his average, yes?
And in spite of Tannehill playing above his normal level, the TEN offense only managed four scoring drives. Out of ten possible. And our defense couldn't stop a running nose bleed that day, right?
So my argument has been that for TEN to win they have to get another incredible performance out of Tannehill (and the odds are against that), they have to get a much better day out of their receivers (nothing statistically suggests that this is going to happen either), and that their defense has to suddenly play much better in the RZ than they have all year (they allow a TD in the RZ 68% of the time. Only HOU is worse at 71%).
Offensively, the Chiefs only have to score TDs 15% more often than in our first meeting. Which is still below the Chiefs season average.
Our defense doesn't even have to play significantly better than last time; just limit TEN to about 4 scoring drives which is slightly above their average. That's it.
Barring an extraordinary performance from all three TEN units and/or a catastrophic meltdown by the Chiefs, we are going to win this one. It might be close for awhile, but TEN simply doesn't have enough horses to keep up tomorrow. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
That's kind of my point.
We both agree that the week 10 game was a high point for Tannehill, right? It wasn't his average game? He had to perform at a much higher level than normal?
How often do you think he does that? It can be all that often, or it wouldn't be him "playing out of his mind," right? So the odds favor that he won't play at that high level this Sunday; that he'll play closer to his average, yes?
And in spite of Tannehill playing above his normal level, the TEN offense only managed four scoring drives. Out of ten possible. And our defense couldn't stop a running nose bleed that day, right?
So my argument has been that for TEN to win they have to get another incredible performance out of Tannehill (and the odds are against that), they have to get a much better day out of their receivers (nothing statistically suggests that this is going to happen either), and that their defense has to suddenly play much better in the RZ than they have all year (they allow a TD in the RZ 68% of the time. Only HOU is worse at 71%).
Offensively, the Chiefs only have to score TDs 15% more often than in our first meeting. Which is still below the Chiefs season average.
Our defense doesn't even have to play significantly better than last time; just limit TEN to about 4 scoring drives which is slightly above their average. That's it.
Barring an extraordinary performance from all three TEN units and/or a catastrophic meltdown by the Chiefs, we are going to win this one. It might be close for awhile, but TEN simply doesn't have enough horses to keep up tomorrow.
See how it goes. Here is Tannehill's game log. He had a bunch of games this season above 130 passer rating. It was an "out of his mind" season in general for him.
Originally Posted by DRM08:
My point is that the guy is capable of hitting clutch plays and he was arguably the X-Factor in their wins the last two games. He was arguably the X-Factor in their win over the Chiefs earlier in the season too. He played out of his mind in that game.
Let's not get carried away here. He was barely over 50% passing and had 160 yards combined in the wild card and divisional games. And in that game you characterize as 'out of his mind,' he threw 19 passes and finished under 190 yards. He's been a compliment, at best, and a minor one at that, at least in the games you mentioned.
I mean, seriously, is anyone arguing that taking the ball out of Henry's hands and hoping that Tannehill can keep up with Mahomes and company in a shootout is a recipe for anything but a long flight home for Tennessee? I mean, I can see the possibility of Tannehill breaking a play or two off of play action, but people are making it sound like he's Aaron Rodgers. [Reply]
Originally Posted by keg in kc:
In that game you characterize as 'out of his mind,' he threw 19 passes and finished under 190 yards. He's been a compliment, at best, and a minor one at that, at least in the games you mentioned.
134 passer rating is pretty ridiculous. You disagree? [Reply]
Originally Posted by keg in kc:
Let's not get carried away here. He was barely over 50% passing and had 160 yards combined in the wild card and divisional games. And in that game you characterize as 'out of his mind,' he threw 19 passes and finished under 190 yards. He's been a compliment, at best, and a minor one at that, at least in the games you mentioned.
I mean, seriously, is anyone arguing that taking the ball out of Henry's hands and hoping that Tannehill can keep up with Mahomes and company in a shootout is a recipe for anything but a long flight home for Tennessee? I mean, I can see the possibility of Tannehill breaking a play or two off of play action, but people are making it sound like he's Aaron Rodgers.
He is going to throw at least 1 interception and fumble a ball away. 2 turnovers minimum. Titans fans will want to ship him back to Miami. [Reply]
Originally Posted by R Clark:
Don’t you think that is easier to achieve with the limited amount of attempts?
Yes of course. And with a strong running game to setup play action. Jared Goff in 2018 is an example of that. You still have to execute the throws. Tannehill's previous career high passer rating was under 94 for a season. He averaged over 117 this year. The guy is out of his mind these days. [Reply]
