While I enjoyed the video I'd suggest that the calculations/numbers are off.
How can he use total possessions but base everything else (missed kicks, defense dropped INT, WR dropped pass and such) on snaps?
In the video it talks about how many "possessions" each team gets a game. The guy said each team has about 11-12 possessions a game so he rounded it to a total of 25 possessions a game. I'd argue that with football you should use SNAPS not possessions. An average NFL game has a total of about 126 total snaps which is WAY more than the 25 number he talks about.
Put 126 into the calculations instead of 25 and all of those graphs and charts seem like every team has basically the same amount of luck or Bad luck. [Reply]
[QUOTE=BWillie;17484815]Get out your pitchforks boys, you ain't gonna like this. It's actually good arguments. We probably got lucky last year, unlucky in the losses to Brady because that mother****er is the luckiest person alive.
We won SB58 by just about the absolute slimmest of margins. I won't even begin to think or say it was luck that got us the win, but boy oh boy, if we don't make every yard and every play we did in all phases of the game, we lose that Super Bowl. And that's what makes it probably one of the best championship games we've seen in a LONG time. The game was THAT close. [Reply]
Total luck that the blocker on the 9ers punt return had the awareness of a tent spike and let the football hit his foot. Also total luck that their returner had the wise idea to pick the ball up instead of falling on it.
I guess the Chiefs are lucky that the 49ers players are dumber and worse at football. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Womble:
We won last year's Super Bowl having gone through objectively the toughest gauntlet of any Super Bowl winning team in the modern era:
I wanted this video to be compelling, but it wasn't. They repeatedly cite missed field goals and made field goals as some of their main examples of "luck". If that's the case I can see why the Chiefs, with an all-time great kicker, are considered lucky. They also act like a fumble recovery is random and has no correlation to the awareness/reaction time of the players. And dropping passes and INTs? That's also all luck.
I believe there is plenty of luck in sports. I do agree that the limited number of posessions in football mean that one funny bounce of the ball can be massive. Whereas in basketball you get way more possessions and opportunities to overcome. That was probably their best point. [Reply]
Originally Posted by wazu:
I wanted this video to be compelling, but it wasn't. They repeatedly cite missed field goals and made field goals as some of their main examples of "luck". If that's the case I can see why the Chiefs, with an all-time great kicker, are considered lucky. They also act like a fumble recovery is random and has no correlation to the awareness/reaction time of the players. And dropping passes and INTs? That's also all luck.
I believe there is plenty of luck in sports. I do agree that the limited number of posessions in football mean that one funny bounce of the ball can be massive. Whereas in basketball you get way more possessions and opportunities to overcome. That was probably their best point.
And games. NBA playoff series has minimum 4 games, max 7 games, and NFL playoff series has only 1 game. Thats gonna drive variance down quite a bit. [Reply]
Originally Posted by wazu:
I wanted this video to be compelling, but it wasn't. They repeatedly cite missed field goals and made field goals as some of their main examples of "luck". If that's the case I can see why the Chiefs, with an all-time great kicker, are considered lucky. They also act like a fumble recovery is random and has no correlation to the awareness/reaction time of the players. And dropping passes and INTs? That's also all luck.
I believe there is plenty of luck in sports. I do agree that the limited number of posessions in football mean that one funny bounce of the ball can be massive. Whereas in basketball you get way more possessions and opportunities to overcome. That was probably their best point.
While I agree that it's less than other sports, NBA, BUT I think they should talk about SNAPS not possessions. A QB snaps the ball on average 126 a game vs only 25 possessions. That would upset his charts and would make all teams about equal in the "luck" department. [Reply]
Interesting concept and not a bad video... but, overall seems half-baked (and he even said so at the end, since he's not tracking terrible officiating calls and coin flips, etc.).
I think at one point he even excused the block EP in the SB as luck even after saying he didn't count blocked kicks.
He talks a good game, but seems like he's currently counting things that aren't 100% lucky (maybe a defense is good at recovering fumbles because they're always around the ball) while not counting things that are pure luck (how could you not count coin flips).
This is Luck Alpha, would be interested in knowing what it looks like when it's a finished project. [Reply]
It goes without saying that single elimination games are affected the most by 'luck.' It's the reason MLB/NBA/NHL do best-of-7 series. It's why pro pool tournaments are always race-to-13 or more. Playing more games reduces the luck factor.
However, it's tough to say it was luck when a team wins 3 out of four SBs in a relatively short period like 5 years. Sure, there's going to be some luck involved in any game, but luck isn't usually consistent for one team over another either. [Reply]
This bullshit started with labeling DBs dropping interceptions and WRs dropping passes as being defined as luck. Your DBs or WRs ability to catch a ball isn't luck, it's a lack of skill or concentration.
Is this thing worth watching beyond those two examples? [Reply]