Here are all of our potential outcomes for your viewing pleasure. Scenarios A through M based on the outcomes of various combinations of games. The big numbers are our final seeding.
(Edit: Updated with a new graphic to show changes heading into Sunday on Week 16.)
Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger:
Not true, we have a better record in the AFC plus if we beat the Raiders we'd have a better record in our division than they do in theirs.
Division record is only used to break divisional tiebreakers. Conference record is what matters with the Texans. We're ahead of them there, but if we lost to the Raiders, it would get iffy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by HolyHandgernade:
If I understand the tie breaker system correctly, if the Chargers lose to the Ravens and we lose to the Seahawks, we still win the #1 seed as long as we beat Oakland. Would have better Division record vs Chargers (even if they win their last game) and a better Conference record than Texans (2 losses to 3).
Of course, I would just rather win the final two games and make it easy.
But, just for scenario projection, if the Charges lose at Ravens, and we win at Seattle but lose against Raiders and Texans win out (giving each 3 Conference losses), what is the next tie breaker?
The first tiebreaker is head to head record. Somehow both teams are tied on this, so it's completely irrelevant regardless of the next two weeks.
The second tiebreaker is the record within the division. The Chargers are currently 3-2 and the Chiefs are 4-1. So they can't catch us on this one.
The third tiebreaker is record against common opponents. The Chiefs are currently 9-1 and the Chargers are 8-2. They could tie us on this one, but it doesn't matter from this point on, because the only way to tie us would lose them the first tiebreaker.
The fourth tiebreaker is conference record. The Chiefs are currently 9-2 and the Chargers are 8-2.
Edit: this is the tiebreaker against the Chargers inside the division. [Reply]
Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger:
Not true, we have a better record in the AFC plus if we beat the Raiders we'd have a better record in our division than they do in theirs.
Division record would not come in to play before strength of victory when comparing 2 teams in different divisions.
You are both correct though. I was thinking about the scenario where we beat SEA but lose to OAK. In that case we tie them with Conference record and lose strength of victory. [Reply]
Originally Posted by HolyHandgernade:
If I understand the tie breaker system correctly, if the Chargers lose to the Ravens and we lose to the Seahawks, we still win the #1 seed as long as we beat Oakland. Would have better Division record vs Chargers (even if they win their last game) and a better Conference record than Texans (2 losses to 3).
Of course, I would just rather win the final two games and make it easy.
But, just for scenario projection, if the Charges lose at Ravens, and we win at Seattle but lose against Raiders and Texans win out (giving each 3 Conference losses), what is the next tie breaker?
We've won nine games against AFC teams compared to the Texan's seven. They only have one more AFC left to play so we'd have the better win record in the conference. [Reply]
Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger:
We've won nine games against AFC teams compared to the Texan's seven. They only have one more AFC left to play so we'd have the better win record in the conference.
Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger:
We've won nine games against AFC teams compared to the Texan's seven. They only have one more AFC left to play so we'd have the better win record in the conference.
Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger:
We've won nine games against AFC teams compared to the Texan's seven. They only have one more AFC left to play so we'd have the better win record in the conference.
