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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
2112 06:45 PM 02-18-2021
Originally Posted by stumppy:
If I want your opinion I'll give it to you.
Terrible post. You never disappoint.
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 07:35 PM 02-18-2021
We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

By Marty Makary
Feb. 18, 2021
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

..

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.

Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...il-11613669731

Interesting take from someone I remember in a debate early on as a lockdown the country advocate.
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 09:27 PM 02-18-2021
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

By Marty Makary
Feb. 18, 2021
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

..

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.

Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...il-11613669731

Interesting take from someone I remember in a debate early on as a lockdown the country advocate.
But but people had Christmas dinner so thats obviously why there was a 77% drop :-)
[Reply]
loochy 09:08 AM 02-19-2021
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

By Marty Makary
Feb. 18, 2021
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

..

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.

Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...il-11613669731

Interesting take from someone I remember in a debate early on as a lockdown the country advocate.
Right, but this article doesn't paralyze me with fear so it must be wrong.
[Reply]
O.city 09:13 AM 02-19-2021
Closing the Covid wing here at our big hospital. Great news.
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 09:36 AM 02-19-2021
Originally Posted by O.city:
Closing the Covid wing here at our big hospital. Great news.
meanwhile..

Over the past year, the Nixa Police Department has seen a 100% increase in calls for suicide, domestic violence and people who may have mental health needs. https://t.co/1PrHk4Eplw

— KY3 News (@kytv) January 26, 2021

[Reply]
Marcellus 09:46 AM 02-19-2021
Originally Posted by stumppy:
How stupid do you have to be to think the word "locally" was used to reference half the globe, you ****ing idiot?

Answer: BigCatDipshit stupid.
No dumber than you have to be to not understand the numbers have been falling since the first of January means it has nothing to do with there not being holidays the last 6 weeks.

How dumb do you have to be to not know there was no Xmas spike or NY spike? :-)
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 09:49 AM 02-19-2021
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
No dumber than you have to be to not understand the numbers have been falling since the first of January means it has nothing to do with there not being holidays the last 6 weeks.

How dumb do you have to be to not know there was no Xmas spike or NY spike? :-)
He needs to stick to his once a week drop in post that is a veiled shot at Trump.
[Reply]
louie aguiar 11:38 AM 02-19-2021

The Covid-19 vaccine made by @BioNTech_Group
& @pfizer can be stored in ordinary freezers, the companies said today. They asked @US_FDA to allow them to abolish the ultra-cold handling, meaning it would be available to normal pharmacies & vax centers https://t.co/f86d1V1rIQ

— Bojan Pancevski (@bopanc) February 19, 2021

[Reply]
louie aguiar 11:41 AM 02-19-2021
it will be interesting if the US begins to delay the second dose similar to what the UK is doing. Also, it seems like pretty big news that the vaccine can be stored in a regular freezer.
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 11:53 AM 02-19-2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t=businessweek
[Reply]
O.city 12:07 PM 02-19-2021
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
meanwhile..

Not surprising.
[Reply]
TLO 12:15 PM 02-19-2021
Originally Posted by O.city:
Closing the Covid wing here at our big hospital. Great news.
We've doubled our number of patients from 3 to 6 in the past week. Exponential growth...
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 12:41 PM 02-19-2021
Originally Posted by TLO:
We've doubled our number of patients from 3 to 6 in the past week. Exponential growth...
President Day gatherings coming back to bite us in the ass! - Stumpy
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 12:46 PM 02-19-2021
Mayor Q rolled back curfew and capacity restrictions for KC's hospitality industry.
[Reply]
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