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The Lounge>The FG and fake punt are not as bad as some think
dlphg9 11:01 AM 01-14-2020
I know a bunch of people wanna act like B.O.B. was the only reason why the Texans lost that game and want to bring up kicking the FG or the fake punt. Kicking the FG wasn't as egregious as some are making it out to be. Sure technically it was a 3 possession game, but in reality when the game is that early, it's a 4 possession game because the Chiefs are going to kick the XP.

We have seen this D stuff 3rd/4th and 1's several times this year and even though we were down by 21 at that point they werent playing bad and on this particular drive they had stuffed Hyde a few times for 2 or less yards already. It's not like going down by 24 shifted the momentum our way. If we make a 4th and 1 stop, then it's a big momentum swing and the crowd gets back into it even faster. Kicking the FG was the right thing to do.

So after we go down 24-0 Hardman has a nice return and in 2 plays we have our first points of the day. Texans get the ball back and can't get a 1st down in 3 plays, but instead of punting they run a fake punt and direct snap to Justin Reid. The play design was almost perfect, besides 2 thing, the ball carrier was Justin Reid and Dan Sorenson didn't have anyone even attempting to block him. Justin Reid is a FS, so he doesn't carry the ball all that often and Dan Sorenson is one of the most clutch Chiefs defensive players in the playoffs I've ever seen, so with him one on one against a safety Im taking Dan everytime. So this might be the dumbest call B.O.B made or was it? We had just scored in less than a minute and have a certain QB by the name of Patrick Mahomes. It's not like the Texans D was stopping the Chiefs, so Bill took the chance to keep the ball out of Mahomes' hands and try to get more points. He figured that we'd score no matter where we got the ball and it almost did work, but Dirty Dan said fuck this shit.

B.O.B does deserve some blame, but in 7 out of 8 drives after the 1st quarter, Deshaun Watson (a guy people like to put on the same level as Mahomes) couldnt lead his team to a score. Out of 32 total drives in the playoffs Watson has led the Texans to score on only 9 of those drives. B.O.B. was just trying to do what he thought would be best to beat us, take any points that are available and throw in a few tricky things. If that fake punt works out, we still win, but B.O.B. is getting a lot less crap.
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Chiefshrink 11:39 AM 01-14-2020
Originally Posted by Deberg_1990:
It will be interesting to see if Vrabel gambles like this?

I think the potency of the Chiefs offense forces teams into a gambling mentality they wouldn’t normally be like.
I can assure you of this he will take the same approach that Bellichek did in their 1st SB win with Brady playing the Rams in 2001. Just beat the **it out of everyone on both sides of the ball especially the WRs. Yes the rules have changed BUT as physical as the Titans are already they will attempt to be even more so.
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warpaint* 11:56 AM 01-14-2020
The field goal was fine.
The fake punt was retarded.
Neither is why they lost.
They lost b/c they didn't force a punt for like 2+ quarters & quit scoring.
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Deberg_1990 12:25 PM 01-14-2020
Originally Posted by Chiefshrink:
I can assure you of this he will take the same approach that Bellichek did in their 1st SB win with Brady playing the Rams in 2001. Just beat the **it out of everyone on both sides of the ball especially the WRs. Yes the rules have changed BUT as physical as the Titans are already they will attempt to be even more so.
Agree 100%
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dlphg9 01:11 PM 01-14-2020
People keep saying that the FG and fake punt contradict each other, but I dont think that is the case at all. In both situations Billy Boy had only one thing in mind and that was to score points. The difference between 24 and 28 points in that situation is very small, because Reid wasn't going to try to go for 2 at that point in the game. That means going up 24 points means that the Chiefs have to have 4 possessions to tie/take the lead and they would have to make sure the Texans didnt score on their possessions. If the Texans go for it on that 4th and a long 1 (I don't think it was 4th and just a few inches) and they dont convert, then it's a 3 possession game and it doesnt take long for us to score 3 TDs. Its not that he didn't want to be aggressive, its because taking the 3 points was the smart thing to do.

The reason he ran the fake punt is because he just saw us score in less than a minute and it was 24-7. He couldn't have a 3 & out and punt the ball away right after we scored and the crowd was back into the game. If Reid breaks one tackle then it's a first down and Mahomes and the offense stay on the sideline. At that point there was only 8:35 left in the half and if you can get a first down, then even if you don't get any points you can still limit the amount of time/drives that the Chiefs get. That's especially important because we got the ball after halftime. So Bill knows how fast we can score, so he decided to try to catch us off guard, because he knows that giving us the ball 33 yards from the endzone is going to have the same result as giving us the ball 70 yards from our endzone.

When Bill had to be talked out of punting it in the 4th, that was retarded. These other 2 instances though are not retarded and were the right calls. Im not saying Bill is some genius, but he's probably the most successful Belichick disciple, but gets shit on alot because the national media loves Deshaun Watson, so BOB is the one who gets the blame for all the bad and Watson gets all the Escalades when things go good. Do people in the media really think if Mahomes was in Watson's situation he wouldn't have found a way to stop the bleeding and found a way to score a couple of times during the onslaught? People want to point to Watsons college career and that he has some GWD in the regular season, but if he cant do that in the playoffs then what does it matter. Blame B.O.B. for that loss, but at some point you have to stop pointing the finger at the coach, because if Watson is as good as people make him out to be then he should have been able to put a drive together instead of coming up with goose eggs as Patrick Mahomes is leading our O to TD after TD after TD. That kind of ineptitude is on the players. Its inexcusable for a playoff team to go that long without at least lucking into a score or 2 no matter who the coach is.
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Pitt Gorilla 01:15 PM 01-14-2020
The field goal was the worse decision, IMO. Even if they don't make it (they probably should make it), the Chiefs are pinned insanely deep; momentum hasn't really shifted. If they make it (and score a TD), things get REALLY tough for the Chiefs.

I don't really hate the fake punt at all. Catch the other team off-guard and keep the ball out of Mahomes' hands.
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tyecopeland 01:16 PM 01-14-2020
Kicking and making the FG actually lowered the Texans chances of winning by 1%. It was a bad decision.
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Lilmrp117 01:24 PM 01-14-2020
Originally Posted by tyecopeland:
Kicking and making the FG actually lowered the Texans chances of winning by 1%. It was a bad decision.
It was a terrible decision and besides for this probability you mentioned, it was a bad decision from a common sense view. Anytime you make a decision that results in the opposing team/opposing fans breathing a sigh of relief, then that's usually a bad decision. That was absolutely the case here. Instead of going for it to try to drive the stake in, it sent a horrible message to his team.

I also said in another thread that I think the decision to kick the FG was linked to the stupid fake punt. If the texans had scored a TD instead of a FG there, perhaps BoB wouldn't have felt as much pressure to try for another score as to fake that punt. Of course that is speculation by me, but if what BoB said is true that he thought they needed to score 50 to win, then why the hell did he pass on the 4th and 1 attempt and yet try a fake punt so deep in his own territory? Out of those two situations, going for it on 4th and 1 gives you the better chance at points with way less risk. If you're going to take a gamble, take the gamble of going for it on 4th and 1 when you have the opposing team in a bad situation. It's like if you need a 2 point score in basketball and you pass up a layup in favor of taking a 30 foot 3 pointer.
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Buckweath 02:03 PM 01-14-2020
Originally Posted by dlphg9:
People keep saying that the FG and fake punt contradict each other, but I dont think that is the case at all. In both situations Billy Boy had only one thing in mind and that was to score points. The difference between 24 and 28 points in that situation is very small, because Reid wasn't going to try to go for 2 at that point in the game. That means going up 24 points means that the Chiefs have to have 4 possessions to tie/take the lead and they would have to make sure the Texans didnt score on their possessions. If the Texans go for it on that 4th and a long 1 (I don't think it was 4th and just a few inches) and they dont convert, then it's a 3 possession game and it doesnt take long for us to score 3 TDs. Its not that he didn't want to be aggressive, its because taking the 3 points was the smart thing to do.

The reason he ran the fake punt is because he just saw us score in less than a minute and it was 24-7. He couldn't have a 3 & out and punt the ball away right after we scored and the crowd was back into the game. If Reid breaks one tackle then it's a first down and Mahomes and the offense stay on the sideline. At that point there was only 8:35 left in the half and if you can get a first down, then even if you don't get any points you can still limit the amount of time/drives that the Chiefs get. That's especially important because we got the ball after halftime. So Bill knows how fast we can score, so he decided to try to catch us off guard, because he knows that giving us the ball 33 yards from the endzone is going to have the same result as giving us the ball 70 yards from our endzone.

When Bill had to be talked out of punting it in the 4th, that was retarded. These other 2 instances though are not retarded and were the right calls. Im not saying Bill is some genius, but he's probably the most successful Belichick disciple, but gets shit on alot because the national media loves Deshaun Watson, so BOB is the one who gets the blame for all the bad and Watson gets all the Escalades when things go good. Do people in the media really think if Mahomes was in Watson's situation he wouldn't have found a way to stop the bleeding and found a way to score a couple of times during the onslaught? People want to point to Watsons college career and that he has some GWD in the regular season, but if he cant do that in the playoffs then what does it matter. Blame B.O.B. for that loss, but at some point you have to stop pointing the finger at the coach, because if Watson is as good as people make him out to be then he should have been able to put a drive together instead of coming up with goose eggs as Patrick Mahomes is leading our O to TD after TD after TD. That kind of ineptitude is on the players. Its inexcusable for a playoff team to go that long without at least lucking into a score or 2 no matter who the coach is.
I agree with this take.

FG or going for it on 4th down early in the game are both defendable. I actually think Andy Reid if coaching the Texans and in the same situation would have done the same as O'Brien.

The fake punt also was not a bad call IMO. It was super unexpected but as others have said it was possibly poorly executed.

I think O'Brien said he came into the game thinking he's not punting any ball against that Chiefs offense. If that fake punt succeeds, you're kinda crushing the hope that the Chiefs had just regained with that TD.

As is often the case, regardless of the call you make, people will criticize and say it was a poor call if it fails and they will say it's brilliant if it succeeds.

Thinking of punting the ball in the 4th quarter and taking a TO was definitly poor from O'Brien. That's the one clear and obvious mistake.
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suzzer99 02:27 PM 01-14-2020
Originally Posted by Superturtle:
Watson having to tell him they have to go for it on 4th down while down 20 in the middle of the 4th quarter and subsequently wasting a valuable timeout is damn near fireable on its own
Yeah that was by far the worst, but for some reason all the pundits ignore it. It's like they knew he was a wreck by that point and not thinking straight - so they go easy on him. Well that's pretty freaking bad for a head coach to lose his mind like that.
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suzzer99 02:31 PM 01-14-2020
All I know is as a Chiefs fan I was thrilled when BOB took the FG. The way they were rolling I fully expected 28-0. I think you have to keep the foot on the neck there, and know that you at least give us a long field when you blow it.

Also this:


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dlphg9 02:40 PM 01-14-2020
Originally Posted by tyecopeland:
Kicking and making the FG actually lowered the Texans chances of winning by 1%. It was a bad decision.
And? What do you think their chance of winning percentage would have done if they didn't score? Dropped several percent ? Hell how much would it have raised if they score a TD? 1%? The reward of scoring a TD didn't outway the risk of not scoring.

The fact that we are even debating this is insane lol. It just shows how fluky the lead was and proves how much better we are than them. It seems stupid for blaming a coach for a loss because he decided to go up 24-0 instead of trying to go for a TD to go up 28-0. I don't care how bad a coach is, if you are up 24 points all you have to do is execute at a very basic level and thats all it would take to win.
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Megatron96 02:47 PM 01-14-2020
Originally Posted by dlphg9:
I know a bunch of people wanna act like B.O.B. was the only reason why the Texans lost that game and want to bring up kicking the FG or the fake punt. Kicking the FG wasn't as egregious as some are making it out to be. Sure technically it was a 3 possession game, but in reality when the game is that early, it's a 4 possession game because the Chiefs are going to kick the XP.

We have seen this D stuff 3rd/4th and 1's several times this year and even though we were down by 21 at that point they werent playing bad and on this particular drive they had stuffed Hyde a few times for 2 or less yards already. It's not like going down by 24 shifted the momentum our way. If we make a 4th and 1 stop, then it's a big momentum swing and the crowd gets back into it even faster. Kicking the FG was the right thing to do.

So after we go down 24-0 Hardman has a nice return and in 2 plays we have our first points of the day. Texans get the ball back and can't get a 1st down in 3 plays, but instead of punting they run a fake punt and direct snap to Justin Reid. The play design was almost perfect, besides 2 thing, the ball carrier was Justin Reid and Dan Sorenson didn't have anyone even attempting to block him. Justin Reid is a FS, so he doesn't carry the ball all that often and Dan Sorenson is one of the most clutch Chiefs defensive players in the playoffs I've ever seen, so with him one on one against a safety Im taking Dan everytime. So this might be the dumbest call B.O.B made or was it? We had just scored in less than a minute and have a certain QB by the name of Patrick Mahomes. It's not like the Texans D was stopping the Chiefs, so Bill took the chance to keep the ball out of Mahomes' hands and try to get more points. He figured that we'd score no matter where we got the ball and it almost did work, but Dirty Dan said **** this shit.

B.O.B does deserve some blame, but in 7 out of 8 drives after the 1st quarter, Deshaun Watson (a guy people like to put on the same level as Mahomes) couldnt lead his team to a score. Out of 32 total drives in the playoffs Watson has led the Texans to score on only 9 of those drives. B.O.B. was just trying to do what he thought would be best to beat us, take any points that are available and throw in a few tricky things. If that fake punt works out, we still win, but B.O.B. is getting a lot less crap.
Firstly, I agree with everything you're saying here. Hell, HCs have to make some really tough calls in playoffs games.

My issue was that he waffled. If you're going to play safe football, okay then play it safe. Kick the FG and take the points when you can, fine. But then you can't go for it on 4th-and-4.

Because that's risky. Especially on your own 30-yard line.

I think he had to choose his path and stick it out. Instead, it looked like he panicked (whether that's accurate or not, I'm talking optics), and mid-stream he changed his mind.

If I were him in the game, I'd have gone for it on 4th-and-inches on the Chiefs 13-yard line, because that's not a terrible risk. I don't like not taking the points, but if you can't get 6 inches, you're probably screwed anyway. And the Chiefs defense gives up 4th-and-short about 56% of the time or something like that. So not a terrible risk.

Going for it from my own 30-yard line on 4th-and-4 smacks of desperation. And is really risky. And the Chiefs are a lot better about not giving up 4th-and-more than 2 yards.

And if you don't convert, the Chiefs are really good in the RZ, like scoring a TD about 70% of the time good. So not a fan of that call.

But I agree with you that in the end it made no real difference. No matter how he called those plays, the Texans were going to lose that game anyway.

Oh, and Frank Clark doesn't suck . . .
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Why Not? 02:56 PM 01-14-2020
Personally. I would’ve went for it on 4th and 1 but I get taking the points there. I think the fake was stupid but not because they went for it. If your mentality is “we need to score 50” and you decide to go for any fourth down outside of scoring range(provided it’s not like a 4th and 15 on your own 10), fine. Have your star QB throw a pass to your NFL top 3 WR(who, save one great play by the Badger, we never really stopped)or design a run for that QB or something. I can justify going for it. I can’t justify putting the ball in my safety’s hands to convert.
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dlphg9 03:49 PM 01-14-2020
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Firstly, I agree with everything you're saying here. Hell, HCs have to make some really tough calls in playoffs games.

My issue was that he waffled. If you're going to play safe football, okay then play it safe. Kick the FG and take the points when you can, fine. But then you can't go for it on 4th-and-4.

Because that's risky. Especially on your own 30-yard line.

I think he had to choose his path and stick it out. Instead, it looked like he panicked (whether that's accurate or not, I'm talking optics), and mid-stream he changed his mind.

If I were him in the game, I'd have gone for it on 4th-and-inches on the Chiefs 13-yard line, because that's not a terrible risk. I don't like not taking the points, but if you can't get 6 inches, you're probably screwed anyway. And the Chiefs defense gives up 4th-and-short about 56% of the time or something like that. So not a terrible risk.

Going for it from my own 30-yard line on 4th-and-4 smacks of desperation. And is really risky. And the Chiefs are a lot better about not giving up 4th-and-more than 2 yards.

And if you don't convert, the Chiefs are really good in the RZ, like scoring a TD about 70% of the time good. So not a fan of that call.

But I agree with you that in the end it made no real difference. No matter how he called those plays, the Texans were going to lose that game anyway.

Oh, and Frank Clark doesn't suck . . .
Frank no longer sucks. You are correct lol.

I disagree about Bill "playing it safe" and then "being a risk taker". I think he was doing what he thought he had to do to win and thats score points. Out of all the decisions he made, the only one that could have potentially swayed the outcome of the game is if they convert on that fake punt. Converting that and then having the ability to run a few minutes off the clock may have changed the outcome of the game. That would have had much more impact on the game then going for it instead of kicking a FG and much more impact than punting it. If they would have converted they had a chance to win if they can hold onto the ball a few more minutes.
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Megatron96 04:01 PM 01-14-2020
Originally Posted by dlphg9:
Frank no longer sucks. You are correct lol.

I disagree about Bill "playing it safe" and then "being a risk taker". I think he was doing what he thought he had to do to win and thats score points. Out of all the decisions he made, the only one that could have potentially swayed the outcome of the game is if they convert on that fake punt. Converting that and then having the ability to run a few minutes off the clock may have changed the outcome of the game. That would have had much more impact on the game then going for it instead of kicking a FG and much more impact than punting it. If they would have converted they had a chance to win if they can hold onto the ball a few more minutes.
It's true that we have no real idea what Billy was really thinking in those moments. And we'll probably never find out the truth either.

But 4th-and-4 on your own 30 is a much tougher proposition than 4th-and-1 on your opponent's 13, you'd have to agree. From a purely mathematical perspective, you'd really be more comfortable going for it from your opponent's 13-yard line with inches to go, IMO.

But I agree that if they did convert the fake punt, they would've at least improved their field position and taken some more time off the clock. Maybe even score.
But you have to admit, it sure looked like a desperate move.
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