Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by TLO:
How many days does that span?
One day, apparently:
Officials in Florida's Miami-Dade County reported a staggering 33.5% Covid-19 positivity rate on Thursday, according to data released by Mayor Carlos Gimenez's office.
The positivity rate -- that is, the percentage of people who test positive for the virus of those overall who have been tested -- is tracked daily by the county.
Gimenez's office has said the goal is to not exceed a positivity rate of 10%. The county has exceeded the 18% mark for the past 14 days. The current 14-day average is 24%, the data shows. [Reply]
Kansas City, MO mayor Quinton Lucas has extended the mask order indefinitely as of Friday morning.
The order, which went into effect June 29th, mandated that all employees and patrons of indoor public spaces must wear a face-covering where maintaining six feet of distance between themselves and others is not possible. “We certainly encourage you to wear masks in more situations,” Lucas said.
This order falls in line with Kansas City’s state of emergency, which is set to expire on August 15th. If the state of emergency is not extended past that date, the mask ordinance will expire then as well. However, if the state of emergency continues, the mask order will follow suit.
Think this was expected. Kinda surprised he waited this long to say anything. [Reply]
Officials in Florida's Miami-Dade County reported a staggering 33.5% Covid-19 positivity rate on Thursday, according to data released by Mayor Carlos Gimenez's office.
The positivity rate -- that is, the percentage of people who test positive for the virus of those overall who have been tested -- is tracked daily by the county.
Gimenez's office has said the goal is to not exceed a positivity rate of 10%. The county has exceeded the 18% mark for the past 14 days. The current 14-day average is 24%, the data shows.
Similar to what I posted yesterday that you can roughly ballpark seeing 5% CFR of today's cases in a few weeks.
Originally Posted by :
The fatality rate is the number of cases that result in death divided by the total number of cases (for each gender-age group) excluding cases within the past 45 days (or at the time of writing this, May 25). The basic idea is to only include cases that are not time-censored; that is, they have had enough time to develop until recovery or death.
Despite the repeated assertions by certain politicians that Florida has the best data (still waiting on hospitalizations, Ron), it is actually lacking in many areas that hinder a more complete understanding of the situation. For example, case data is overwritten each day with no record of the days between when Died field goes from ‘No’ to ‘Yes’ (time until death). We cannot even be entirely sure that cases are the same from day to day as there is no unique id and the count of cases by case date changes each day (always lower for some reason).
The only way to estimate time from case until reported death is to look at the change in the number of deaths from one day’s case file to the next. Unless you have been saving each day’s file (we have, as have many others), it would be impossible to know how many new deaths were reported and get an estimate for when a certain proportion of deaths have come in. This is where the 45 day lag comes in.
Now that I’ve wasted all your time, I’ll get to the point. We just look at the percentage of deaths (by case date) for each consecutive case file. Using case dates that are at least 60 days old, we looked at how many of the total/almost total deaths that have been reported by day 45, which is about 96% of them.
The Louisiana Department of Health is reporting 2,642 new Covid-19 cases on Friday, the single highest day of new cases since the pandemic began.
According to the Department of Health, there was one other day that reported a higher number of cases, but many of those were backlogged cases from weeks prior.
The positivity rate for tests coming in on Friday is 10.52%. The agency reported that 97% of cases today are due to community spread and 39% of the new cases are for people who are under 29 years old.
Hospitalizations increased by 75, bringing the total number of patients in the hospital due to Covid-19 to 1,117. Hospitalizations have been trending up since mid-June, according to data released by the agency. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Pants:
I wonder what it will take for people to start taking this seriously.
It's never going to happen on a large scale, especially in the younger population. I think the younger population sees how low their risk of dying is from this and just doesn't find it necessary to take precautions. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Pants:
I wonder what it will take for people to start taking this seriously.
And I'm not saying this is right/wrong or otherwise. But 96 people under the age of 60 in Missouri have died from covid thus far out of a lot of cases.
I pay attention to the 30-39 bracket a lot because that's the age range I fall into.
There have been 4255 diagnosed cases and 4 deaths. You can do the percentages and see just how low that makes the risk factor appear.
Have there been some missed deaths in those numbers? I'd be willing to say yes,absolutely.
Have there been missed cases in those numbers? Once again, absolutely. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
Wear a mask.
Stay the **** away from each other at a distance of approximately 72 inches or greater.
Wash your filthy hands.
Fair enough. The only real problem is the social distancing. It's rather impractical and very hard to enforce in most places.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Fair enough. The only real problem is the social distancing. It's rather impractical and very hard to enforce in most places.
Just saying.
I thought it to be obvious, but I think when someone says "take it seriously," they mean there's no longer a need to enforce anything because people are following those guidelines voluntarily. Because, you know, they're taking the pandemic seriously. [Reply]
