Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
The governor of Georgia is calling for restaurants, bowling alleys, tattoo parlors, gyms, salons, etc. to be reopened, but not banks, schools, factories, and places like that. Most likely reason? The state isn't equipped to pay out unemployment to too many people for very long, he's not willing to raise taxes on anyone capable of paying, and the people who work the reopened jobs are more likely to be in need of unemployment benefits, so this offers a chance to kick them off the rolls.
None of this is being done with health in mind. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Incorrect. CFR is different than death rate based on our reported cases. We likely have millions of people with Covid-19 in this country that never get tested or reported. Many are presumptive positives and aren't counted as well. 2 million? 4 million? We won't know until years later and we do an antiserum test in a portion of our population. That is why the death rate is so high for the REPORTED cases.
But the death rate of REPORTED cases of Covid-19 is very high. You cannot dispute this. Even if you do not take into account the USA, it is very high. It is 21% worldwide, and that includes China's likely fabricated numbers & South Korea's numbers which included a large portion of asymptomatic testing.
Death rate is a stupid number because you are presuming outcome based on test given to people who are almost certainly very ill to receive the test. Most of the test have been administered to severely ill people, do you not understand that? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Death rate is a stupid number because you are presuming outcome based on test given to people who are almost certainly very ill to receive the test.
yes, but we weren't arguing that. we were arguing how many people were going to die. and it's going to be more than 50k, watch.
do you know what is even dumber? those who try to figure out the CFR based on total deaths divided by total reported cases - and have no idea why this is incorrect. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mecca:
The governor of Georgia is calling for restaurants, bowling alleys, tattoo parlors, gyms, salons, etc. to be reopened, but not banks, schools, factories, and places like that. Most likely reason? The state isn't equipped to pay out unemployment to too many people for very long, he's not willing to raise taxes on anyone capable of paying, and the people who work the reopened jobs are more likely to be in need of unemployment benefits, so this offers a chance to kick them off the rolls.
Originally Posted by BWillie:
yes, but we weren't arguing that. we were arguing how many people were going to die. and it's going to be more than 50k, watch.
do you know what is even dumber? those who try to figure out the CFR based on total deaths divided by total reported cases - and have no idea why this is incorrect.
You realize you have already changed your number by 50% right?
You claimed no way fewer than 100K die even if nobody else is infected with it starting today. You want to back off that nonsense now? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
You realize you have already changed your number by 50% right?
You claimed no way fewer than 100K die even if nobody else is infected with it starting today. You want to back off that nonsense now?
Huh? No I most certainly did not. I've been trying to tell anyone who will listen that cites this nonsense that 50k people total will die from Covid-19 in the USA. I am with great certainty predicting that more than 100,000 people die from Covid-19 in the USA. It would not surprise me if it ends up more than 200,000, at all. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Or thier accounting is.
I just read today locally we had a death ruled covid because the guy had a heart attack and was positive and that may have contributed. :-)
So, you realize why that might be the case right? Covid-19 will lead to death in different ways. While it is true the majority of these deaths are going to be due to respiratory issues, if you get an infection that will cause huge strain on your heart.
There was a guy on Chiefsplanet who sadly died a few years ago if I recall because he had a significant toothache. A toothache. And the infection ended up effecting his heart. So how is it that Covid-19 couldn't be the cause of cardiac arrest or a heart attack?
When people get Aids. Do they die from Aids? No. They die from things Aids causes. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Huh? No I most certainly did not. I've been trying to tell anyone who will listen that cites this nonsense that 50k people total will die from Covid-19 in the USA. I am with great certainty predicting that more than 100,000 people die from Covid-19 in the USA. It would not surprise me if it ends up more than 200,000, at all.
