Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
The State of Texas today had to remove 3,484 cases from its Covid-19 positive case count, because the San Antonio Health Department was reporting “probable” cases for people never actually tested, as “confirmed” positive cases.- TDHS What other departments make this same mistake? pic.twitter.com/wYhGWhHl5w
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
There are. You read about them all the time. Also how many people are going to get tested the first time around if they're completely asymptomatic? That's not going to happen 99% of the time because getting tested is a PITA and they have no reason to.
What exactly do you expect to happen? No one is coming to lewdog to do a study on him, no reporters are at his door. How would we know how many others this is happening to other than random anecdotes?
And again - for every 1 person who somehow tested positive while asymptomatic, there are probably 100 more who never got tested. Why would they? So any anecdote you hear that involves someone testing positive asymptomatically - you can multiply by at least 100 imo. [Reply]
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
What exactly do you expect to happen? No one is coming to lewdog to do a study on him, no reporters are at his door. How would we know how many others this is happening to other than random anecdotes?
And again - for every 1 person who somehow tested positive while asymptomatic, there are probably 100 more who never got tested. Why would they? So any anecdote you hear that involves someone testing positive asymptomatically - you can multiply by at least that much imo.
Because for it to be statistically important, there has to be documented cases and such at certain levels.
Like the ones in South Korea that ended up being false accounts of it, is it more likely explained by what we know, or that it goes against everything we know about virology and immunology? [Reply]
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
What exactly do you expect to happen? No one is coming to lewdog to do a study on him, no reporters are at his door. How would we know how many others this is happening to other than random anecdotes?
And again - for every 1 person who somehow tested positive while asymptomatic, there are probably 100 more who never got tested. Why would they? So any anecdote you hear that involves someone testing positive asymptomatically - you can multiply by at least 100 imo.
If we used your analogy then the virus is far less deadly than we think. I mean if we use the 40% they think are truly asympto that is roughly 1.5 mil people x 100. I mean that would essentially say almost half of the country is asympto, no? [Reply]
The State of Texas today had to remove 3,484 cases from its Covid-19 positive case count, because the San Antonio Health Department was reporting “probable” cases for people never actually tested, as “confirmed” positive cases.- TDHS What other departments make this same mistake? pic.twitter.com/wYhGWhHl5w
It may very well be the case that it happens alot. To this point, we have anecdotal evidence and the actual studies done on it thus far, say it isn't likely.
Also it's been talked to death, but what the hell has happened in Sweden? They didn't lock down, did social distancing, didn't do masking and they're looking like they're at the end of this thing.
The models showed they should have had alot more problems than they have, granted they have had alot of death, which isn't ideal. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
It's too soon to call, but it's looking like Arizona may have rolled over and is on their way down the curve. Same with Louisiana.
Some of the other states not so much. I'm hopeful MO is closer to rolling than farther.
MO has been holding steady with a 5.5% PCR positivity rate despite the rise in cases. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
I worried about this with Florida. It's just all oldies.
Yep and now it is slowly making it's way into the Villages. Once it gets a foothold in there...well I have an uncle that lives there and the results won't be good. [Reply]
