Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Are you seriously this dense or just intentionally myopic in your thought process?
Yes when you impose draconian social distancing measures, shutting down society and putting people under virtual house arrest you are going to slow the spread of a contagious respiratory disease.
If you ban all driving you can eliminate all car accident deaths as well.
Is it worth destroying livelihoods to achieve these goals?
Most rational people would say no.
Even with the reduced spread of the virus from the lockdown measures, that still did not prevent COVID-19 from getting into nursing homes. Also 66% of new hospitalizations from COVID-19 in New York last week were people who were social distancing at home.
Those 66% didn’t go to the grocery store or accept any delivery ? It wasn’t clear what he meant exactly when he said they were socially distancing
Even if Georgia daily cases seenm to be going down now it doesn’t mean that trend will continue some of that effect could still be from the lockdown or part of the population still acting like they were during the lockdown.
As we have seen you can go from 1 to thousands pretty quickly
It is pretty obvious to most that without a lockdown there would be more deaths than we have , how much more is harder to predict . [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Those 66% didn’t go to the grocery store or accept any delivery ? It wasn’t clear what he meant exactly when he said they were socially distancing.
Originally Posted by :
In trying to answer why patients keep being brought in and what their backgrounds are, a stunning finding jumped out. That shocking detail: Of all the places patients come from, like nursing homes and so on, most – 66% – were said to be social distancing at home.
Not only does the results suggest they were not in subways, in taxis, for-hire vehicles, or otherwise on public, it finds that they left their houses not at all.
“Eighty four percent were at home, literally. Were they working? No. They were retired or they were unemployed,” Cuomo said.
You mean never leaving the house for food or getting food or supplies delivered or in contact with family that have gone out for food or supplies how extreme were they social distancing and how deep did they look into their social distancing claims of each patient. Patients easily misremember what they had for breakfast or if they have had surgery before or don't completely understand the concepts of social distancing . [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Directly from the source... the Georgia Department of Public Health... the average daily increase in new cases has gone down.
Originally Posted by :
In the latest bungling of tracking data for the novel coronavirus, a recently posted bar chart on the Georgia Department of Public Health’s website appeared to show good news: new confirmed cases in the counties with the most infections had dropped every single day for the past two weeks.
In fact, there was no clear downward trend.
...When the pandemic began, the agency assigned a date to a case based on the day results came into its office. Starting in late April, DPH added charts that date a new coronavirus case back to the day a patient said symptoms started. If that data isn’t reported, DPH substitutes the date the test sample was collected or when it was received results.
But because it can take weeks for case information to come in, the new method always appears to show that cases are declining, even if they are not. The charts that used it stirred suspicion and confusion, and ran afoul of principles for communicating during a public health crisis, experts said.
...One example is a map of Georgia cases and infection rates that colors counties in shades of blue or red based on local rates of infection. In recent weeks, DPH raised the bar on how high an infection rate needs to be before a county is colored red.
“Based on the (key) they were using a couple weeks ago, a good third to a half of our state would show up as red right now,” Heiman said. “Because they keep moving the goalposts, if you will, it doesn’t look that way.”
On Monday morning, DPH reported about 2,400 more confirmed cases than actual tests performed.
On Tuesday, DPH updated its charts again with clearer labeling that some of its most recent data is preliminary. But one chart for cases and deaths uses such a large numeric key, the number of deaths appear to be almost zero....
— stephen fowler // voting+georgia politics (@stphnfwlr) May 10, 2020
There is absolutely no reason to manipulate graphs that way unless you want to make it look like things are declining no matter what. Backdating positive tests like that just delays the rise by 2 weeks, so at most Georgia officials are pushing off public panic and the inevitable by a half month. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCUnited:
Most likely F.I.B.'s
Fucking Illinois Bastard - usually a bro Cubs fan from Chicago swarming neighboring states for outdoor space and bringing all their bro buddies along
"that FIB just bought up the last of our cheese curds..." - Wisconsin guy
Originally Posted by :
When the Wisconsin state Supreme Court struck down the governor’s extended stay-at-home order in a bitterly partisan ruling on Wednesday, crowds descended on bars throughout the state, and local officials raced to impose or reaffirm restrictions meant to keep COVID-19 infections at bay.
Meanwhile, residents of neighboring Illinois saw opportunity.
The Daily Beast spoke with several Illinois residents who shared plans to travel this weekend to Wisconsin. While they generally said they were aware of coronavirus-related travel concerns, they echoed a simmering national debate about how long economies can be placed in hibernation.
Oh, and they were anxious to feel something again.
Anthony Hersick, 22, from Ingleside, Illinois, said he and some friends were planning on crossing the border to Lake Geneva, Wisconsin, to head to the bars and clubs in the area. “I’m a little worried [about COVID-19], but we are here to support our friends,” he told The Daily Beast. “As long as we follow the rules, that’s good enough for me.”
Originally Posted by :
Chicago Alderman Sue Garza is responsible for the city’s 10th Ward, one where she said she can “walk to Indiana from [her] front porch.” Garza said she was very concerned for her residents and that many of them were already crossing state lines.
“It scares the hell out of me,” she told The Daily Beast. “There is no social distancing [in Indiana], everyone is on top of each other.
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
Really interesting article published in Science about the epidemic in France
Key points:
1) The lockdown reduced the R0 from 2.9 to 0.67
2) IFR was 0.7%, increasing with age as one might expect
3) 3.6% of cases were hospitalized and of those approximately 20% die
4) They estimate 4.4% of the population is infected, which is insufficient to prevent a second wave
"Assuming a basic reproductive number of R0 = 3.0, it would require around 65% of the population to be immune for the epidemic to be controlled by immunity alone. Our results therefore strongly suggest that, without a vaccine, herd immunity on its own will be insufficient to avoid a second wave at the end of the lockdown. Efficient control measures need to be maintained beyond the 11 May."
"Our model can help inform the ongoing and future response to COVID-19. National ICU daily admissions have gone from 700 at the end of March to 66 on 7 May. Hospital admissions have declined from 3600 to 357 over the same time period"
That's why countries did what they did.
Do they break down the IFR by age? I can't see the charts well on my phone. [Reply]
Not that any of the states have been following CDC guidelines, but...
The CDC has released decision trees and other guidance for a wide variety of organizations considering reopening. Probably less relevant to everyone as a whole, but if you are involved in education, mass transit, running an office, etc., you might want to check out the side bar here:
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
We need to end the lock down and go for HI, there is no point to not doing so at this point.
Because the longer we keep in Lock-down the longer it keeps us from HI. And considering we are going to have a 2nd wave we need HI.
Vaccine could be YEARS OFF or NEVER. So the sooner we open it back up the better. All you are doing is delaying the inevitable at this point.
Did you read these article Hamas posted regarding HI , not saying it isn’t viable for some viruses but it does express some concerns at this time for covid
LA is now requiring masks even outside? When will the stupidity end? A solution for a virus causing people to have issues breathing shouldn’t be to take some of their natural oxygen from them. It says you’re even supposed to exercise in one. Hopefully most other cities see the stupidity in this and don’t try and follow suit. [Reply]