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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
TLO 05:17 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by KCUnited:
According to IHME, IL was past it's peak by a week until it updated today and now its tomorrow. Wouldn't plan my future arpimd the day to day change in the IHME model.
It's hard to tell, honestly. You'd think the more data that is gathered the more accurate it would be.

Still not putting a ton of stock into it.
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 05:18 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage:
I'd prefer not getting deathly ill in the first place but I'm currently a beggar, not a chooser so I'll take it!

So for people who understand the drug approval process how many more trials or whatnot does it need to go through?
This is close to a Phase IIa study. The FDA has an expedited review process which I'm sure they'd invoke at warp speed for this while undergoing Phase III studies.

Efficacy has not yet been determined, and production to scale will take some time. This will be hard to get for the next several months.
[Reply]
TLO 05:19 PM 04-17-2020
Dr. Birx - not a US geography expert.
[Reply]
DaFace 05:19 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
It's hard to tell, honestly. You'd think the more data that is gathered the more accurate it would be.

Still not putting a ton of stock into it.
I'm starting to realize that, aside from changes in how the model itself works, another major issue is just that the data itself is really wonky. On the IHME site, they show Colorado as having reported 27 deaths yesterday, while our actual Department of Public Health shows...zero. I know they're doing the best they can, but all of this website scraping stuff that IHME, Covidly, Worldometers, John Hopkins, etc. are doing is really shaky in terms of reliability.
[Reply]
KCUnited 05:20 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
It's hard to tell, honestly. You'd think the more data that is gathered the more accurate it would be.

Still not putting a ton of stock into it.
I'm sure they're modeling it the best they can with what they have. It's the predictive version of PFF though. One of many resources.
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 05:21 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Covidly has Hawaii at an "8" and Alaska, Montana, Utah, Vermont, and (amazingly) Washington at a "7", so those are some pretty likely candidates.
Seems like they update their health score based on day-over-day percentage increase in cases. Do they provide any data on that which you could unpack?
[Reply]
TLO 05:23 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
Seems like they update their health score based on day-over-day percentage increase in cases. Do they provide any data on that which you could unpack?
This is how their health score works.

What is the health score?
The health score is a single metric to quickly assess the overall health of the country. The formula combines:

Case growth rate (50%)
Rate of new cases. Combination of daily % of cases as well as double derivative of cases.
Death growth rate (30%)
Rate of new deaths. Combination of daily % of deaths as well as double derivative of deaths.
Recovery (20%)
The progress towards recovery. Note that some countries do not provide accurate recovery data.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 05:23 PM 04-17-2020

Jacksonville Beach reopened 26 minutes ago. This is a live picture. pic.twitter.com/tC6voQ3BAn

— Travis Akers (@travisakers) April 17, 2020

[Reply]
OnTheWarpath15 05:25 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:

Welp.
[Reply]
TLO 05:26 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Those people seem reasonably well spaced apart at least. :-)
[Reply]
DaFace 05:27 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
Seems like they update their health score based on day-over-day percentage increase in cases. Do they provide any data on that which you could unpack?
I'm not sure if they publish the exact thresholds they're using, but here's their description:



According to the little hover menus...

8 = "Virus is largely under control and the situation is stable. Recoveries are increasing."
7 = "Number of cases is growing slowly. In early stages, this could be due to a lack of testing. IN later stages, this could be a sign of slowing viral spread."
[Reply]
BigRedChief 05:29 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
That's curious...
Originally Posted by Donger:
No comment.
Originally Posted by TLO:
Donger sez: "No comment"
non-political politic posts? That’s my thing.:-)

/I kid. Not serious disclaimer.
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 05:30 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15:
Welp.

[Reply]
Donger 05:30 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Meh. As long as they follow the proximity guidelines, I don't see the issue. They ARE outside.
[Reply]
Donger 05:30 PM 04-17-2020
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
:-)
[Reply]
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