Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
That was taken into account in the original model. I know they now claim more people are following social distancing than expected but I can't see how that's accounts for a 20X difference compared to the model. Especially since MO did not order a shelter in place until 2 days ago and been consistently railed for doing the least in terms of social distancing as a state.
Originally Posted by Donger:
They presumed 50% would comply, not 90%
I don't think Marcellus understands how modeling works, nor how small changes in the beginning of a time period can lead to *huge* overall changes to final outcome numbers; think of it as compound interest.
Four weeks ago, if you had told me that the numbers the government were basing their projections on were predicated on a 50% compliance rate, I would of told you that it was a pie-in-the-sky projection. I thought we would be lucky to get 25% compliance. But 90% compliance? Never in my wildest dreams did I think that was possible because, quite honestly, I thought there were more morons like Marcellus, Pete, and KCChiefsfan88 running around.
I think one thing that really, really spooked (and by spooked, in a good way) people were the images coming out of Italy before the shit really hit the fan in the US. Those images were simply shocking and looked like a real life nightmare. People did not want *that* so it made it much easier to convince them to follow safe distancing protocols. Because people followed those protocols much, much better than anticipated, our overall infection and death rates were much, much lower than early model projections.
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
You're looking right at the goddamned thing.
Look dude, I was reading the old trend just like I am reading the new trend, I know what it said when I read it.
There was a link somewhere in this thread you can see the full data on the old trend unless they have taken it down, not a screen shot. I don't know the exact date of the original one that was posted. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis:
I don't think Marcellus understands how modeling works, nor how small changes in the beginning of a time period can lead to *huge* overall changes to final outcome numbers; think of it as compound interest.
Four weeks ago, if you had told me that the numbers the government were basing their projections on were predicated on a 50% compliance rate, I would of told you that it was a pie-in-the-sky projection. I thought we would be lucky to get 25% compliance. But 90% compliance? Never in my wildest dreams did I think that was possible because, quite honestly, I thought there were more morons like Marcellus, Pete, and KCChiefsfan88 running around.
I think one thing that really, really spooked (and by spooked, in a good way) people were the images coming out of Italy before the shit really hit the fan in the US. Those images were simply shocking and looked like a real life nightmare. People did not want *that* so it made it much easier to convince them to follow safe distancing protocols. Because people followed those protocols much, much better than anticipated, our overall infection and death rates were much, much lower than early model projections.
So yes, the math actually does add up.
Pretty comical, obviously I am wrong, not the models that have been way wrong the whole time. Makes sense.
I understand the math, I understand it's not linear, I also can tell when something is way fucked up.
I am not saying we shouldn't be social distancing, I am not saying it doesn't work, I am not mad the numbers are better, I am simply pointing out how far off this stuff is and there is no real logic that explains it other than they were way wrong. Yea the social distancing compliance would explain some of it but come on man.
No idea why people are so obsessed with defending these models. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Considering that this is the second time they've unleashed a plague on the planet, yes, they really need to alter their behavior.
I dont think they care, I think its time the world makes them care [Reply]
Ok. So I’ve been rolling wheels pretty hard and haven’t paid any attention to, well, much of anything.
These numbers.... goddamn.
Originally Posted by DaFace:
I'm pretty convinced that you just don't really understand math.
Just a heads up, there aren’t a ton of people on the planet that understand math to the extent that you understand math. I don’t know what the hell this argument entails. I just skipped to the last page, but I know that you could apply that statement to me and a bunch of otherwise intelligent people on this outfit if you’re the baseline. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
Ok. So I’ve been rolling wheels pretty hard and haven’t paid any attention to, well, much of anything.
These numbers.... goddamn.
Just a heads up, there aren’t a ton of people on the planet that understand math to the extent that you understand math. I don’t know what the hell this argument entails. I just skipped to the last page, but I know that you could apply that statement to me and a bunch of otherwise intelligent people on this outfit if you’re the baseline.
This because Florida has handled it very poorly.. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
I dont think they care, I think its time the world makes them care
There was a report that the Chinese government was going to try to ban the sale and consumption of bushmeat. Then again, they said the same thing after SARS v1.0 [Reply]
