Get out your pitchforks boys, you ain't gonna like this. It's actually good arguments. We probably got lucky last year, unlucky in the losses to Brady because that motherfucker is the luckiest person alive.
Originally Posted by stevieray:
Going to straight six AFCCG's and winning three SB's isn't just luck.
Of course not. The Chiefs have been the best team in the NFL for a while but they've also been lucky. This level of dominance is what happens when the best team is also lucky. A dynasty occurs. [Reply]
Originally Posted by philfree:
BWillie is lucky to make a 3' putt.
I had a nice 77 with 39 putts the other day. You would have laughed at me alot.
Luck also a big factor in golf. There are days I've hit the ball awful and shot par. Other days I've shot 83 and played great. Ball getting a fried egg lie in a bunker. Ending up in horrible lies around the green. Being blocked in by a tree when it's the only one there. Wind gust when the ball is already in the air.
There is certainly "luck" in sports. There is "luck" in almost everything in life that has variation. When people equate luck to not being worthy of the outcome, that it turns into an argument. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
I've always believed this but fans tend to think there is almost no luck in sports.
There's a shitload of luck in sports.
Ultimately that's what drives me nuts about the Cardinals and their "We want to be relevant in September" approach. Because if you have ANY bad luck at all when you're targeting 88 wins, then you're going to win 83 and miss the playoffs.
You've gotta build in a luck buffer. Building for 84 wins and lucking your way into 4 more to get to 88 and the playoffs may work for a year, but you're gonna fall back again the next season. And building for 88 wins is going to net you 82 as often as it does a playoff appearance.
Luck is absolutely a part of the game. But ultimately over any reasonable sample size it's likely to even out. Most teams will get about the same amount of good luck and bad luck. Well led teams will fight through the bad. Poor led teams blame it for being poorly run.
4 SB appearances and 3 wins in 5 years is a plenty long sample size. Easily long enough to demonstrate that it ain't luck that led to that. [Reply]
Originally Posted by stevieray:
Going to six AFCCG's and winning three SB's isn't just luck.
Exactly.
You have to buy a ticket in order to win the lottery. We’re the only team to buy tickets every year.
Some of those will be lucky tickets. Some will be unlucky. The skill is in always putting your team in a position to strike. And that part isn’t luck. [Reply]
Originally Posted by digger:
luck equals opportunity plus preparation
Right here, my friends.
Truth be told, if Mahomes had held that ball a half second longer in the first Super Bowl, he can't complete Wasp.
If Mahomes isn't hit late in the AFCCG in 2023, the Chiefs aren't able to move up for a gimme FG and then who knows what happens.
If the Bills convert a FG last year, the Chiefs have to face them in OT and who knows what happens.
All three years, the Chiefs advance by the slimmest of margins, but that's almost certainly true for a hundred different teams.
It's also true that Andrew Luck doesn't have the ball bounce right back into his hands, or that Mariota catches his own pass, Dee Ford is offsides, or that Lin Elliott doesn't miss a hundred kicks, Eric Fisher misses the Super Bowl in 2021. And on and on it goes.
It's the nature of the sport. You cannot win without luck on your side.
In each of those games, the Chiefs could have won by more. The Eagles Super Bowl alone, I still think Sneed forced that fumble and that Nick Bolton should have been the real MVP with two touchdowns.
But, hey. That's the sport. And that's why it's a wild ride. [Reply]