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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
tk13 09:40 PM 06-22-2020
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
Anybody disputing his facts yet? So far all I see is people complaining about motive and him saying mean things.
That ain't how it works. If you make an accusation, you have the responsibility to provide the facts to back it up.
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 09:47 PM 06-22-2020
2 guys with nothing burgers. Anyone else?
[Reply]
eDave 09:54 PM 06-22-2020
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
2 guys with nothing burgers. Anyone else?
Is it even the point of the post?
[Reply]
eDave 10:09 PM 06-22-2020
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Best post you've had. Those continuing to chant "freedom" and defy orders in this state will be the ones pushing us into another lockdown. No one wants or needs that. Do your part in mitigation efforts and we can at least maintain some assemble of choices for normal life activities for those wanting to partake.

The mental health factor of this is not lost on me either. It's a very serious feeling to be forced into another lock-down. The first one was hard enough, but a second could be devastating for many. While having a family skews my need for social/entertainment activities during this, those who are single honestly need them. I couldn't imagine how hard a lock-down and working in healthcare through all of this would be without a family to come home to. I didn't mean to rag on you about going out in previous posts, I am just asking you to go out and do it safely, with a mask.

I wish everyone would just take it seriously in this state. We are in big trouble if this is what the end of June is like. I never thought it would be this bad for hospitalizations this far into it here. Banner Good Sam, the biggest hospital in the state has 150 COVID patients. They've opened up 3 additional wings since the start of June to manage all of them. Just this week they also secured out of state nurses to help with staffing issues. It's not just beds, you need staff and equipment or the care sucks!!!
Thank you Lewdog. You've taken a load off my heart and your points were taken, and quite frankly it really bothered me that I upset you. And as I said in my rep, it, and the other times, wasn't as irresponsible as it sounded and that is my fault for it sounding like that.

Regarding the defiant ones, they are the Law and Order! types who are sitting right there breaking the law. And before somebody mentions the rioting, the Law and Order! types would be breaking the law regardless. Because of something very important to them.

It's part of what's got me all pissed off.
[Reply]
tk13 10:17 PM 06-22-2020
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
2 guys with nothing burgers. Anyone else?
You believe that people were holding back test kits to get a state of emergency issued?
[Reply]
Eleazar 10:45 PM 06-22-2020
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
IMO, it could do without the "bunch of idiots"/"desperation" rhetoric, that stuff makes it all sound just like the worst of the media, which seems to be the opposite of what's intended.
I just present it without comment, because the perspective media outlets are giving is pretty one-sided and panic-oriented. Here's a different one. Anyone can go check the numbers behind it all.

ES certainly has a negative view of the lockdowns and governance-by-panic in general and is not afraid to express that, but he at least believes the statistics (when in context and rightly understood) support it and he attempts to present the evidence.

People can do whatever they like with it, but it's helpful to see a deeper analysis in a world where most reporting on the virus is someone freaking out about one day's raw numbers, and other data points that in isolation are of limited use.
[Reply]
tk13 11:41 PM 06-22-2020
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
I just present it without comment, because the perspective media outlets are giving is pretty one-sided and panic-oriented. Here's a different one. Anyone can go check the numbers behind it all.

ES certainly has a negative view of the lockdowns and governance-by-panic in general and is not afraid to express that, but he at least believes the statistics (when in context and rightly understood) support it and he attempts to present the evidence.

People can do whatever they like with it, but it's helpful to see a deeper analysis in a world where most reporting on the virus is someone freaking out about one day's raw numbers, and other data points that in isolation are of limited use.
I realize this will be in the wild minority on this board but the media is wildly underplaying this. We aren't all going to die, I said that in March. There shouldn't be any panic or fear mongering. If we're smart about things we'll get through this, and a lot of people will be just fine.

But... 120,000 people are dead in less than 6 months, and that doesn't count thousands of others who've survived and suffered life altering long term illness. Lung problems, kidneys wrecked, organ failure. Lives that are ruined.

One of the most powerful experiences of my life was standing in front of the Vietnam memorial and seeing the list of people who died. I think every person should do it at least once. It's incredible.

That took 20 years. And now we have a virus that's killed twice as many people in 6 months. And it's not a big deal. For the media, for society, for government. That's horrifying.
[Reply]
dlphg9 12:31 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
Today's ES:














***

Edit - this is what the person means by "salting"

This person is a nut. He/she is tweeting charts/graphs that they made and use it as evidence that we are being duped. ES gives some vague tweet but never actually explain wtf any of this shit means and idiots eat it up because ES posted a chart and is using big words that I’m fairly certain ES made up. This person clearly has their own agenda and is pandering to a certain group of people that act like they understand the word vomit that is being tweeted, but 99.999999% of people have no idea what any of that shit means.

BigCatDaddy since you seem to agree with this nutty shit please break it down for my feeble minded self. What does all the mumbo jumbo mean?
[Reply]
dirk digler 05:45 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy:
Anybody disputing his facts yet? So far all I see is people complaining about motive and him saying mean things.

One thing I have been interested in for some time is how SARS2 will compare to SARS since 80%+ of it's genome is exactly like SARS. So this guy has been saying for some time it is following the same end of season like SARS which would be great if true. But the numbers don't bear out, just look at the chart.

BY June 23, 2003 there was 8500 cases and 800 deaths worldwide of SARS TOTAL from the start of the out break. This country alone had 31k cases yesterday and worldwide there was 3880 deaths.

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_06_23/en/

SARS was contained by July 5th, 2003 does any one think in 2 weeks COVID will be declared contained? I would love for that to happen and will come back and eat massive crow but I am not hopeful.
[Reply]
BleedingRed 06:29 AM 06-23-2020
Lol panic porn is back!
[Reply]
O.city 06:33 AM 06-23-2020
https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/...454042624?s=21
[Reply]
dirk digler 06:46 AM 06-23-2020
This would be wonderful if true.



[Reply]
Donger 08:39 AM 06-23-2020
In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott warned that "tougher actions" may be imposed if the numbers there continue to spike, but he stressed that closing down the state again "will always be the last option."

"Covid-19 is now spreading at an unacceptable rate in Texas, and it must be corralled," Abbott said Monday. Houston’s Health Department said Harris County hospitals have a 177% increase in Covid-19 positive patients since May 31.
[Reply]
dlphg9 08:39 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by Eleazar:
Today's ES:














***

Edit - this is what the person means by "salting"

Still need these charts and terms explained to me. If BigCatDaddy is unavailable can some other brilliant member help me out? Pete? BleedingRed? Eleazer?
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 08:41 AM 06-23-2020
Originally Posted by dlphg9:
This person is a nut. He/she is tweeting charts/graphs that they made and use it as evidence that we are being duped. ES gives some vague tweet but never actually explain wtf any of this shit means and idiots eat it up because ES posted a chart and is using big words that I’m fairly certain ES made up. This person clearly has their own agenda and is pandering to a certain group of people that act like they understand the word vomit that is being tweeted, but 99.999999% of people have no idea what any of that shit means.

BigCatDaddy since you seem to agree with this nutty shit please break it down for my feeble minded self. What does all the mumbo jumbo mean?
When I first saw this I'll admit to some confusion. I'm not a data scientist by training, so I wasn't going to assume understanding of this person's jargon, but the further you dive into it, the more you realize that it's a parlor game. Many of his pet phrases that he uses are simply not words, and the conclusions he draws from the graphs do not correlate with the sources he claims to reference.

A good example is the overlay of the CDC estimate data in blue to draw firm conclusions about serology when no study has indicated levels of infection that high, and the CDC estimate that he uses was one of many potential outcomes based on inputs that were purposefully estimates and not hard data to show a range of possibilities. What he does is take it for a fact and then extrapolates IFR from it while criticizing states of "salting" (which is a term taken from mining fraud) data.

It's a good case study in the persuasiveness of graphical design among the intellectually incurious, though.
[Reply]
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