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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Monticore 02:34 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by jdubya:
There will be a reduction of many COD`s this year because C19 is being blamed for nearly all. How many without C19 were going to die within hours, days or weeks from CAD, CVA, CA, PE`s, Sepsis, etc etc? Some here seem to be forgetting that the overwhelming majority of deaths are these very elderly.

But lets shut the economic engine down, hide under a rock and stop living....that will make it go away
I think there will be an increase because if Covid caused your pneumonia and renal failure , all 3 should be listed. The elderly still contribute to the economy Those old age homes are making money somehow.

I assume they will also revisit a lot of home deaths and potentially adjust the numbers either way but for some reason there is a backlog on autopsies right now, not sure why.
[Reply]
SAUTO 02:35 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
You would have to assume if thats the case now it was the case then yes.
Well it's been pretty close so far. What is your take on that?
[Reply]
Marcellus 02:36 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
Well it's been pretty close so far. What is your take on that?
You mean the projection? It started at 200K didn't it?
[Reply]
Mecca 02:36 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
I think there will be an increase because if Covid caused your pneumonia and renal failure but all 3 should be listed. The elderly still contribute to the economy Those old age homes are making money somehow.
Do you mean the nursing homes or the retirement ones? The nice retirement ones are rather expensive.
[Reply]
jdubya 02:36 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
We did in 1918 during the Spanish Flu.
Ahhh, that nasty bug that killed 50 million people. The one that killed babies, children young and older, as well as healthy young and old adults.

So the shutdown didnt work?
[Reply]
Donger 02:37 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
You mean the projection? It started at 200K didn't it?
No. It started at 100,000 with a high of 200,000 dead with mitigation.
[Reply]
SAUTO 02:39 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
FWIW, here's an update I threw together of the March 25th IHME model and actual performance through April 28th:



That model was predicting 81,114 deaths through the end of July.
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
You mean the projection? It started at 200K didn't it?
This one.

Since 3-25 it's been pretty close.
[Reply]
Donger 02:39 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by jdubya:
Ahhh, that nasty bug that killed 50 million people. The one that killed babies, children young and older, as well as healthy young and old adults.

So the shutdown didnt work?
~675,000 in the United States, yes.
[Reply]
jdubya 02:40 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud:
This is a really dumb post.
Oh but what zinger retort!!! :-)
[Reply]
Monticore 02:40 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Mecca:
Do you mean the nursing homes or the retirement ones? The nice retirement ones are rather expensive.
People are making money of the elderly is what I was just trying to say, I assume that contributes to the economy somehow.
[Reply]
DaFace 02:41 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
This one.

Since 3-25 it's been pretty close.
To put the exact numbers to it, that model had the number of deaths through August at:

Minimum: 38,242
Mean: 81,114
Maximum: 162,106

And just focusing on dates we have actuals for (through April 27th):

Minimum: 30,741
Mean: 55,446
Maximum: 104,570
Actual: 55,891
[Reply]
Donger 02:42 PM 05-04-2020
For those curious about how we locked down during 1918:

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/a...antine/609163/

People even bitched about sporting events then...
[Reply]
ModSocks 02:43 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
People are making money of the elderly is what I was just trying to say, I assume that contributes to the economy somehow.
Allegedly the avenue my shop sits on was completely rebuilt by the city to appease the investors of a new multi-million dollar retirement home that just opened on the north side of it.

No idea if that's true, just what a city planner told me during reconstruction.
[Reply]
Monticore 02:45 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by jdubya:
Ahhh, that nasty bug that killed 50 million people. The one that killed babies, children young and older, as well as healthy young and old adults.

So the shutdown didnt work?
Medical technology might have been slightly different back then
[Reply]
SAUTO 02:45 PM 05-04-2020
On the mo governor conference the guy just said we're at about 300 new today.

Uh no we're closer to 400 than 300 and also said to throw out all the triumph plant positives. They are a whole different group of people...

WTF? They don't know they can't spread it still? And saying all those people can go back to work this week.
[Reply]
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