Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
My comment is that it's hilarious the delusions of grandeur in this thread as if any of us has access to enough information to say whether he is right or not. It's just an attempt to assume what you hope will happen and then work backwards [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
So is the whole "flatten the curve" thing not going to work? What else do we need to be doing?
Keep in mind, there is no shelter in place law in Los Angeles County, Ventura County or San Diego County. Right there, you're talking somewhere around 25 million people who, up until last week, were out in public, going to work, etc.
I was at Lake Hollywood yesterday and it was completely packed, far busier than I've ever seen it in my 27 years, the last 17 in which it's been right behind my home, and NO ONE, other than me, was practicing Social Distancing.
Also, keep in mind that the grocery stores have been packed 12 hours a day for weeks, as has been Costco, CVC, Target, Walmart and Rite Aid. There's no telling how many people have been infected and passed it on to others.
I hope it's not too late for Social Distancing to make a difference but until tens of millions of tests are available, no one will know with any certainty. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Kiimosabi:
My comment is that it's hilarious the delusions of grandeur in this thread as if any of us has access to enough information to say whether he is right or not. It's just an attempt to assume what you hope will happen and then work backwards
No, it's that other experts aren't predicting those kinds of numbers. Can you find any credible people predicting half the population being infected in the next 8 weeks? Only a politician asking for money is. Sorry, this Flu hasn't made me more trustful of politicians. [Reply]
In an effort to keep some people out of jail during the coronavirus pandemic, the Jackson County Prosecutor’s Office on Thursday said it would broaden its guidelines for a diversion program and stop prosecuting drivers without valid licenses.
Prosecutors will also “engage in proactive efforts” to review bonds for people being held at the county jail in downtown Kansas City, which has long been over is recommended operational capacity. The office said it would minimize new bond conditions for defendants who are not considered dangerous or a flight risk as well.
In a statement, Prosecutor Jean Peters Baker said the changes would keep some defendants out of jail while assuring “dangerous persons” would not be released. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Kiimosabi:
My comment is that it's hilarious the delusions of grandeur in this thread as if any of us has access to enough information to say whether he is right or not. It's just an attempt to assume what you hope will happen and then work backwards
Originally Posted by jjjayb:
Except we aren't seeing it continue to grow like that. We have seen a patern of it peaking off.
The pattern shows more evidence of it doubling than stopping. China is China so who knows but they took draconian steps to curtail the spread that the west would only entertain as a last resort (which, by that time, could be too late). South Korea had the brunt of its outbreak taking place within a mostly closed off religious sect which helped get it under control. Neither country has shown that they can restart their economies without this flaring up again but it’s possible it won’t spread in the same way now that they are testing and know who is/has been infected. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jjjayb:
But it's going to be 25 million in 8 weeks. :-)
You can't rule it out but I think that has to be a worst case scenario type of number. Keep in mind this is also in a letter that is asking for $1bil and expansion of several federal programs. While I have not qualms about giving the money and such if I were going to ask for money I would also paint the worst case scenario.
But if his contention is that even with all the social distancing and what not that you still have a better than 50% chance of getting it then something doesn't smell right. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Yep. I think it's pretty damn irresponsible for him to throw that number out. It could cause a ****ing societal break down.
I see shit like this and I'm ready to just give up.. Like, who even cares.
I was feeling optimistic today. Now... Shit. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Frazod:
Just changed out the roll in my bathroom today. Even though I've got plenty, I still kind of felt like Lord Humongous from Road Warrior loading the last of the bullets into his revolver. :-)
Aren’t the politicians making these calls risking reelection if they fuck this up, but I would gather getting wrong the other direction would be worse I guess , putting them in between a large small boulder and a small large rock. [Reply]
