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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
DaFace 02:16 PM 05-04-2020
FWIW, here's an update I threw together of the March 25th IHME model and actual performance through April 28th:



That model was predicting 81,114 deaths through the end of July.
[Reply]
Monticore 02:17 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by limested:
This is why other countries laugh at the United States.
among other things :-)
[Reply]
limested 02:17 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Exactly we will never reach herd immunity for heart disease and there will never be a vaccine.

I only bring it up to put it in perspective.
You are comparing apples to chickens.
[Reply]
Pants 02:17 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
And that's how you get to herd immunity.
Yes, but you want to achieve that slowly or you risk overwhelming the medical system leading to a national disaster of massive proportions.
[Reply]
SAUTO 02:18 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Exactly we will never reach herd immunity for heart disease and there will never be a vaccine.

I only bring it up to put it in perspective.
There may never be herd immunity or a vaccine for this either.

I realize many people die every day.

There's a reason those 70k dying in 2 months is a big deal.

NBA owners aren't throwing away millions for no reason. They really are ok with not seeing the season back up until the fall if at all.
NCAA didn't throw a billion in the trash for no reason.
[Reply]
Donger 02:18 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
FWIW, here's an update I threw together of the March 25th IHME model and actual performance through April 28th:

That actual line is ALL over the place, man...
[Reply]
Baby Lee 02:18 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
just doesn't look like much social distancing is going on at least in some of those groups.
Before you start casting aspersions at legions of stupid people, read up on manipulating depth of field in photography.
[Reply]
Marcellus 02:19 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by limested:
This is why other countries laugh at the United States.
There is absolutely nothing invalid in what I am saying. :-)

The point about who is most at risk, the numbers, all of it is valid discussion. I just find it interesting people lose their shit over a specific number and shrug off a greater number.

If 150K people die from this this year you are still 4x more likely to die from heart disease. I get the unknown part of it makes it scary but the truth is a very very small % of the country is at risk of dying even if they get it.

Nothing invalid about any of that. Its pragmatic.
[Reply]
Mecca 02:19 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by limested:
You are comparing apples to chickens.
If all I had to go on was this thread...reading his posts he would get a wonderlic score of potato for his analogy here.
[Reply]
Monticore 02:19 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I will throw out the same argument but differently...

Why is a Covid-19 death of primarily an older person worse than a flu death of a child?

Yes, that's right. I went there. The life of a child is worth 4 lives of an elderly person.

I know the numbers aren't the same but you see what I did there to even them out.....:-)
It isn't but the same people minimizing covid are the ones who minimize the flu and don't get their shots.
[Reply]
SAUTO 02:20 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I will throw out the same argument but differently...

Why is a Covid-19 death of primarily an older person worse than a flu death of a child?

Yes, that's right. I went there. The life of a child is worth 4 lives of an elderly person.

I know the numbers aren't the same but you see what I did there to even them out.....:-)
It's not worse. Hell if this had kids dying they would have locked everything down tight imo.


But there's a vaccine for the flu. And therapeutics.
[Reply]
Marcellus 02:20 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
There may never be herd immunity or a vaccine for this either.

I realize many people die every day.

There's a reason those 70k dying in 2 months is a big deal.

NBA owners aren't throwing away millions for no reason. They really are ok with not seeing the season back up until the fall if at all.
NCAA didn't throw a billion in the trash for no reason.
And nobody is making the "no reason" argument.
[Reply]
Mecca 02:20 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
There is absolutely nothing invalid in what I am saying. :-)

The point about who is most at risk, the numbers, all of it is valid discussion. I just find it interesting people lose their shit over a specific number and shrug off a greater number.

If 150K people die from this this year you are still 4x more likely to die from heart disease. I get the unknown part of it makes it scary but the truth is a very very small % of the country is at risk of dying even if they get it.

Nothing invalid about any of that. Its pragmatic.
Your comparison would be like if I compared people with genital warts to long term car accident victims.
[Reply]
limested 02:21 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
There is absolutely nothing invalid in what I am saying. :-)

The point about who is most at risk, the numbers, all of it is valid discussion. I just find it interesting people lose their shit over a specific number and shrug off a greater number.

If 150K people die from this this year you are still 4x more likely to die from heart disease. I get the unknown part of it makes it scary but the truth is a very very small % of the country is at risk of dying even if they get it.

Nothing invalid about any of that. Its pragmatic.
Yes there is. When heart disease becomes contagious and you can catch it by being in the same room as someone, or soon after they left the room, then you may have a valid comparison.
[Reply]
petegz28 02:21 PM 05-04-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
That actual line is ALL over the place, man...
You mean life doesn't move in a straight line all nice and neat like?
[Reply]
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