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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Donger 08:18 AM 09-17-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
.
Pete posted that information, not me. Are you under the impression that the IFR is the same in every state and region?
[Reply]
Marcellus 08:22 AM 09-17-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Pete posted that information, not me. Are you under the impression that the IFR is the same in every state and region?
Are you under the impression I ever implied that?
Are you under the impression that outside of the NE the IFR is much lower?
Are you under the impression the IFR isn't massively lower under the age of 65?

Stop asking stupid questions.
[Reply]
Donger 08:29 AM 09-17-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Are you under the impression I ever implied that?
Are you under the impression that outside of the NE the IFR is much lower?
Are you under the impression the IFR isn't massively lower under the age of 65?

Stop asking stupid questions.
Yes, you did imply that. Why else did you decide to try to make a point about the 1.07% IFR in Kansas versus the CDC best estimate (nationally) of .65%?

Again, do you dispute the CDC best estimate IFR of .65% or not? If so, why do you dispute it?

You claimed that my pointing out that that estimate exists is spin. Explain yourself, or be quiet.
[Reply]
Marcellus 08:32 AM 09-17-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Yes, you did imply that. Why else did you decide to try to make a point about the 1.07% IFR in Kansas versus the CDC best estimate (nationally) of .65%?

Again, do you dispute the CDC best estimate IFR of .65% or not? If so, why do you dispute it?

You claimed that my pointing out that that estimate exists is spin. Explain yourself, or be quiet.
I pointed out the obvious fact that the 1.07 wasn't accurate, you then tried to argue with me, you then provided evidence it isn't accurate. Feel free to be dumb enough to believe Kansas IFR is almost double the national average for .......reasons.

It went amazingly similar to our last discussion on Europe's spikes that you proved me right on and tried arguing afterwards.
[Reply]
Donger 08:36 AM 09-17-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I pointed out the obvious fact that the 1.07 wasn't accurate, you then tried to argue with me, you then provided evidence it isn't accurate.

It went amazingly similar to our last discussion on Europe's spikes that you proved me right on and tried arguing afterwards.
How do you know that the Kansas IFR listed in pete's source isn't accurate? How did you make that determination, doc?

No, providing the CDC best estimate of .65% nationally didn't provide evidence that the 1.07% is inaccurate at all. As you seem to understand, IFR isn't consistent in every state.

You are terrible at this.

Again, do you dispute that the CDC best estimate is .65% or not?
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 08:41 AM 09-17-2020
JFC.
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 08:47 AM 09-17-2020
"Oops."
[Reply]
Donger 08:51 AM 09-17-2020
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
"Oops."


What was it before the above revision?
[Reply]
petegz28 08:57 AM 09-17-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I pointed out the obvious fact that the 1.07 wasn't accurate, you then tried to argue with me, you then provided evidence it isn't accurate. Feel free to be dumb enough to believe Kansas IFR is almost double the national average for .......reasons...and things.....and stuff

It went amazingly similar to our last discussion on Europe's spikes that you proved me right on and tried arguing afterwards.
FYP...
[Reply]
petegz28 09:01 AM 09-17-2020
So the 7 day average of new deaths is well under the 1,800 needed to meet the IHME's latest model of 400,000 dead by 1/1/21.

I think the IHME might be off a skosh...by about 1,000 deaths a day or so
[Reply]
Marcellus 09:45 AM 09-17-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
So the 7 day average of new deaths is well under the 1,800 needed to meet the IHME's latest model of 400,000 dead by 1/1/21.

I think the IHME might be off a skosh...by about 1,000 deaths a day or so
Its hard to figure out how with the IFR dropping like a rock from the only time frame we had that many deaths, how its suddenly going to skyrocket and do it for 3.5 months straight. We haven't had anything close to a death rate like that for near that long but now, now its just going to off. Because of things.....and stuff.
[Reply]
petegz28 10:02 AM 09-17-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Its hard to figure out how with the IFR dropping like a rock from the only time frame we had that many deaths, how its suddenly going to skyrocket and do it for 3.5 months straight. We haven't had anything close to a death rate like that for near that long but now, now its just going to off. Because of things.....and stuff.
And reasons!! Don't forget REASONS!!
[Reply]
dirk digler 10:25 AM 09-17-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
So the 7 day average of new deaths is well under the 1,800 needed to meet the IHME's latest model of 400,000 dead by 1/1/21.

I think the IHME might be off a skosh...by about 1,000 deaths a day or so
I haven't really paid much attention to models recently but when I saw that projection the other day I thought it was really high. But then you go back and look at their projection history and they seem to underestimate quite a bit what actually happened.

This is pretty cool and it looks at all the covid forecasts.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/
[Reply]
TLO 01:13 PM 09-17-2020
Missouri's positivity rate is continuing in the right direction.

11.1% over the past 7 days.
[Reply]
TLO 01:14 PM 09-17-2020
One of our local doctors said that the majority of patients in our hospital at the moment are "middle aged working people".

What exactly defines middle age?
[Reply]
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