The most important game left is the Steelers against Buffalo. If Buffalo wins that game, we have the #1 pretty much tied up.
After that, the most important games are Chiefs/Saints and Steelers/Browns. If the Steelers lose to the Browns, that will drop their SOV a lot. If we beat the Saints, it raises ours.
Just spent a little time working through scenarios and I can’t stress enough how volatile the KC/PIT tiebreakers can become when you assume both teams go 14-2, but the Chiefs loss comes to an NFC team and the Steelers beat Buffalo.
At that point, we have to root like hell that teams only we have beat, not Pittsburgh, win their matchups. For example, teams like the Patriots, Dolphins (if we win that one), the NFC South, etc. That strength of victory can be flipped so easily. For example, I went through it all, had KC beating everyone but the Saints, had Pittsburgh losing to only Cleveland to see what that would do. It had Pittsburgh ahead, but I went and flipped one game (WAS@CAR) to where Carolina won, and it gave the Chiefs the 1 seed because it improved their SOV.
In other words, this Sunday night’s game at Buffalo could very well decide HFA. [Reply]
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19:
Just spent a little time working through scenarios and I can’t stress enough how volatile the KC/PIT tiebreakers can become when you assume both teams go 14-2, but the Chiefs loss comes to an NFC team and the Steelers beat Buffalo.
At that point, we have to root like hell that teams only we have beat, not Pittsburgh, win their matchups. For example, teams like the Patriots, Dolphins (if we win that one), the NFC South, etc. That strength of victory can be flipped so easily. For example, I went through it all, had KC beating everyone but the Saints, had Pittsburgh losing to only Cleveland to see what that would do. It had Pittsburgh ahead, but I went and flipped one game (WAS@CAR) to where Carolina won, and it gave the Chiefs the 1 seed because it improved their SOV.
In other words, this Sunday night’s game at Buffalo could very well decide HFA.
Yep.
The Buffalo game is by far our clearest path to the #1 seed. After that, the next biggest game is New Orleans because of their record. The only game we can really afford to lose is Atlanta because they're NFC and they have a losing record. [Reply]
I’m just giving you a hard time, Htis. I haven’t watched him yet.
I've seen him play twice. I won't say I'm impressed - he's still got a lot of growing to do - but I can definitely see the Saints being a tough matchup with him at the helm. [Reply]
