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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 01:56 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Yea I addressed it 2 weeks ago, you are using 1 city which is a major outlier and using 100% incomplete data on flu numbers so you still didn't prove me wrong.
100% incomplete data? It's data from the 2017-8 flu season, which has been over for two years.

I'm using one city, which has a sample size of 8,000,000 people to draw from. Their serology data does not point to a substantively higher IFR than other regions given the cumulative number of infections, nor is at an outlier.

Serology study from Spain points to 5% prevalence with an IFR of 1.1%

New York City serology information points to 21% prevalence with an IFR of 0.977%

There's nothing different about New York's epidemic from Spain's if you look at IFR--it's not an outlier. Given that, we can draw pretty clear comparisons to age-related mortality, which is, again, substantially higher for every cohort over 18, than the flu.
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 01:58 PM 05-22-2020
Mask work. Everyone should wear them for the rest of their lives or they are heartless assholes dont value human life.
[Reply]
KCUnited 02:00 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Don’t even go there, Olathe!
Vaccine spotted at Best Buy; not wearing a mask
[Reply]
Marcellus 02:00 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
100% incomplete data? It's data from the 2017-8 flu season, which has been over for two years.

I'm using one city, which has a sample size of 8,000,000 people to draw from. Their serology data does not point to a substantively higher IFR than other regions given the cumulative number of infections, nor is at an outlier.

Serology study from Spain points to 5% prevalence with an IFR of 1.1%

New York City serology information points to 21% prevalence with an IFR of 0.977%

There's nothing different about New York's epidemic from Spain's if you look at IFR--it's not an outlier. Given that, we can draw pretty clear comparisons to age-related mortality, which is, again, substantially higher for every cohort over 18, than the flu.
The numbers for the flu are understated and the CDC websight clearly tells you that.

Originally Posted by :
While flu deaths in children are reported to CDC, flu deaths in adults are not nationally notifiable. In order to monitor influenza related deaths in all age groups, CDC tracks pneumonia and influenza (P&I)-attributed deaths through the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Mortality Reporting System. This system tracks the proportion of death certificates processed that list pneumonia or influenza as the underlying or contributing cause of death. This system provides an overall indication of whether flu-associated deaths are elevated, but does not provide an exact number of how many people died from flu.
And I am not comparing it directly to the flu, thats not what I said.

Now keep in mind this only KNOWN positives not asymptomatic or low symptom cases. Average age 81. Its not that deadly to people under 65 period.


rel="Lightbox"?s=be1b6e763aea880b8d787c24e74e0c25&attachmentid=120550&thumb=1&d=1590177603" class="thumbnail" border="0" alt="Click image for larger version Name: SDCCovid.jpg Views: 349 Size: 248.9 KB ID: 120550" style="margin: 2px" />
Attached:
[Reply]
petegz28 02:01 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Yea I addressed it 2 weeks ago, you are using 1 city which is a major outlier and using 100% incomplete data on flu numbers so you still didn't prove me wrong.
Peep this....

If I am reading this correctly more people are dying from pneumonia than Covid across the board. That includes more than Covid+pneumonia.

They have this broken down for:

Covid Deaths
Total Deaths (why after Covid???)
Pneumonia deaths
Pneumonia + covid deaths
Influenza deaths
Influenza + covid deaths
Influenza, pneumonia or covid deaths

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...9bhg-hcku/data


Powered by Socrata


[Reply]
Pants 02:02 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Okay don't get conceding.
I didn't concede anything nor was I condescending if that's what you meant.

Originally Posted by petegz28:
You're free to your opinion but don't start lecturing about what my patriotic and civil duties are.
Wrong as always. I'm free to have an opinion and I'm free to express it, pete.
[Reply]
petegz28 02:05 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by Pants:
I didn't concede anything nor was I condescending if that's what you meant.



Wrong as always. I'm free to have an opinion and I'm free to express it, pete.
Yeah you were very condescending. Express your opinion and in any way you choose. Just don't get pissy if I call you for being condescending which you were doing. Which I am free to do.......
[Reply]
Pants 02:09 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Yeah you were very condescending. Express your opinion and in any way you choose. Just don't get pissy if I call you for being condescending which you were doing. Which I am free to do.......
I didn't get pissy nor did I ever say that you're not free to express your opinion. You're the one who told me not to express mine. Very confusing.

I literally have no idea where you're coming up with these things.

I still don't think it's condescending to have an opinion on what I consider to be a patriotic duty. I am not sure how it can be taken that way either.

You're a weird dude, pete.
[Reply]
kgrund 02:10 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
The numbers for the flu are understated and the CDC websight clearly tells you that.



And I am not comparing it directly to the flu, thats not what I said.

Now keep in mind this only KNOWN positives not asymptomatic or low symptom cases. Average age 81. Its not that deadly to people under 65 period.


Attachment 120550
In Kansas the Case fatality rate for people over 65 is 13.67% for under 65 it is .50%. This, of course, does not take into account the large number of people that may have had it but were never tested.
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 02:13 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
The numbers for the flu are understated and the CDC websight clearly tells you that.

And I am not comparing it directly to the flu, thats not what I said.

Now keep in mind this only KNOWN positives not asymptomatic or low symptom cases. Average age 81. Its not that deadly to people under 65 period.


Attachment 120550
The fact that you think that info is dispositive perfectly explains why you don't understand the debate.

You know how many people under 65 died of the flu last year? 8,000.

How many people under 65 died of COVID when the death toll was at 68,000? 13,300. It's obviously higher now, but we'll go with this depressed number just to show how off you are.

How many people were infected with the flu last year? 35 million had symptomatic illness alone. Antibody studies put our population at no more than 5%, which means that, at most, you'd have 16 million infections.

So, a disease with twice as many infections had 60% of the deaths for the people under 65, which makes it, at best, 3 times less deadly for that cohort.
[Reply]
petegz28 02:13 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by kgrund:
In Kansas the Case fatality rate for people over 65 is 13.67% for under 65 it is .50%. This, of course, does not take into account the large number of people that may have had it but were never tested.
Elaborate, please. Are you saying those percentages are actually lower because there are people we assume have it but haven't been tested? Or are you saying the percentages are actually higher because more people died with Covid but we didn't test them?

Can't be both.
[Reply]
BleedingRed 02:14 PM 05-22-2020

New York refused to release its own statistics, but @AP found hospitals released more than 4,300 coronavirus patients to already strained nursing homes under a controversial state order. https://t.co/uIoxAfmbxn

— The Associated Press (@AP) May 22, 2020


GJ NY!
[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 02:15 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Peep this....

If I am reading this correctly more people are dying from pneumonia than Covid across the board. That includes more than Covid+pneumonia.

They have this broken down for:

Covid Deaths
Total Deaths (why after Covid???)
Pneumonia deaths
Pneumonia + covid deaths
Influenza deaths
Influenza + covid deaths
Influenza, pneumonia or covid deaths

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...9bhg-hcku/data


Powered by Socrata

COVID causes pneumonia, pete. You have to look at both columns.

This is the point where you will initiate a 250 post debate about what the true cause of death is.
[Reply]
petegz28 02:17 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
The fact that you think that info is dispositive perfectly explains why you don't understand the debate.

You know how many people under 65 died of the flu last year? 8,000.

How many people under 65 died of COVID when the death toll was at 68,000? 13,300. It's obviously higher now, but we'll go with this depressed number just to show how off you are.

How many people were infected with the flu last year? 35 million had symptomatic illness alone. Antibody studies put our population at no more than 5%, which means that, at most, you'd have 16 million infections.

So, a disease with twice as many infections had 60% of the deaths for the people under 65, which makes it, at best, 3 times less deadly for that cohort.
Uh okay, so are you estimating the number if people who had the flu and basing the death rate on that but not estimating the number of people who have Covid but instead using the hard numbers and basing the death rate on that?

That seems like what you are saying and seems like it is not a fair comparison.
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 02:17 PM 05-22-2020
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:


GJ NY!
Holy shit.
I remember when everyone was washing his balls for handling it so well.
[Reply]
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