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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Monticore 08:08 AM 12-01-2020
Originally Posted by R Clark:
He didn’t say it did , it’s been here longer than they have lead us to believe .
Who is they? not telling us it was here in December was part of the conspiracy? and now you are telling me the bad flu season we had last year that people were trying to use to minimize covid were actually covid deaths too?
[Reply]
BigCatDaddy 08:14 AM 12-01-2020
I wonder how this impacts the number of estimated infections? I know what we have caught and they currently estimate we catch 1 in 8. Maybe closer to herd immunity?
[Reply]
stevieray 08:14 AM 12-01-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
Based on the China documents CNN got their hands on China had an unknown flu (Covid)outbreak the first part of December in Hubei province so yes I believe Covid was here in December.

I have posted this before but 4 of us were in NYC at Christmas time and when we returned 2 weeks later 3 of our group came down with pneumonia like symptoms and it lasted a couple of weeks. All I got was the sniffles.
coronavirus was overshadowed by Kobe Bryant's death.

It was a smaller story in USA today
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 08:31 AM 12-01-2020
This article was removed from Medium in April because they mentioned that Covid very well could already have been here months before it was supposed to have arrived...

Why this matters so much

A better understanding of where the COVID curve begins will improve anticipation and rationing of healthcare resources — both among COVID cases and for people with non-COVID related illnesses who are in need of medical care.

The path forward for COVID, US healthcare, and the global economy is very different when you assume November 2019 was the beginning of the pandemic. Shifting the COVID 60 days back in time means the impending peak that everyone fears 60 days from now may be happening in real-time. It means that we are grossly overestimating the case fatality rate and that what we fear is just the beginning may actually be the peak.

It’s possible that the COVID curve is already flat because if we are at or nearing the peak, we are effectively coping with the healthcare demand, and a large segment of the US population may already be immune, rendering most, if not all, of the impending economic damage unnecessary.

If COVID began 60 days earlier, canceling “elective” healthcare procedures, closing schools, and shutting down the economy is too high a price to pay to slow the rate of transmission of a disease that is slowing on its own and has a much lower case fatality rate (CFR) than initially assumed
.

https://www.ajkaywriter.com/latest-e...s-already-flat

AJ Kay
@AJKayWriter
·
11h
Replying to
@AJKayWriter
Can a girl at least get her article reinstated
@Medium
?

Since it doesn’t seem that suggesting Covid was here early was quite the “misinformation” you said it was after all...
[Reply]
O.city 08:33 AM 12-01-2020
It was "here" then, I doubt it was spreading like it is now. I'd think we'd have known it.
[Reply]
IA_Chiefs_fan 08:36 AM 12-01-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
It was "here" then, I doubt it was spreading like it is now. I'd think we'd have known it.
Also, the Midwest wouldn't have exactly been the hotbed for it.
[Reply]
R Clark 08:45 AM 12-01-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Who is they? not telling us it was here in December was part of the conspiracy? and now you are telling me the bad flu season we had last year that people were trying to use to minimize covid were actually covid deaths too?
I didn’t say nothing about conspiracy ,who the hell do you think they is you square headed cock sucker? The government may not know for sure when it got here so instead of guessing and perhaps saving on a little panic last March it wasn’t put out that it may have been here several months earlier. I have no idea what or how your government is handling this pandemic I don’t give a shit . Same can be said for you and your opinion
[Reply]
BigRedChief 08:48 AM 12-01-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
It was "here" then, I doubt it was spreading like it is now. I'd think we'd have known it.
I was attending Arrowhead South Chief events all through December to The Super Bowl. 200-350 fans crammed into a restaurant/bar. We had 1000 at our Super Bowl party in Miami. Miami was one of the early cities to get hammered. I've not heard of anyone in our group of thousands saying they got sick before this was a well known spreading virus.
[Reply]
petegz28 08:49 AM 12-01-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
I was attending Arrowhead South Chief events all through December to The Super Bowl. 200-350 fans crammed into a restaurant/bar. We had 1000 at our Super Bowl party in Miami. Miami was one of the early cities to get hammered. I've not heard of anyone in our group of thousands saying they got sick.
Miami got hit after people from NY started coming down to Florida.
[Reply]
DaFace 08:50 AM 12-01-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
This article was removed from Medium in April because they mentioned that Covid very well could already have been here months before it was supposed to have arrived...

Why this matters so much

A better understanding of where the COVID curve begins will improve anticipation and rationing of healthcare resources — both among COVID cases and for people with non-COVID related illnesses who are in need of medical care.

The path forward for COVID, US healthcare, and the global economy is very different when you assume November 2019 was the beginning of the pandemic. Shifting the COVID 60 days back in time means the impending peak that everyone fears 60 days from now may be happening in real-time. It means that we are grossly overestimating the case fatality rate and that what we fear is just the beginning may actually be the peak.

It’s possible that the COVID curve is already flat because if we are at or nearing the peak, we are effectively coping with the healthcare demand, and a large segment of the US population may already be immune, rendering most, if not all, of the impending economic damage unnecessary.

If COVID began 60 days earlier, canceling “elective” healthcare procedures, closing schools, and shutting down the economy is too high a price to pay to slow the rate of transmission of a disease that is slowing on its own and has a much lower case fatality rate (CFR) than initially assumed
.

https://www.ajkaywriter.com/latest-e...s-already-flat

AJ Kay
@AJKayWriter
·
11h
Replying to
@AJKayWriter
Can a girl at least get her article reinstated
@Medium
?

Since it doesn’t seem that suggesting Covid was here early was quite the “misinformation” you said it was after all...
Why does it matter when it was first here? It clearly wasn't already slowing down, which kind destroys any conclusions drawn from that.
[Reply]
Katipan 08:55 AM 12-01-2020
It's a curiosity.

Because of MED we weren't wearing masks or allowing anyone to wear masks until it was mandated and they shuffled some rules in the middle of the night.

Of our 500 employees, were maybe at 5 that have tested positive for COVID. We set records all summer for sales. Just seems like we should be walking virals.
[Reply]
Monticore 08:56 AM 12-01-2020
Originally Posted by R Clark:
I didn’t say nothing about conspiracy ,who the hell do you think they is you square headed cock sucker? The government may not know for sure when it got here so instead of guessing and perhaps saving on a little panic last March it wasn’t put out that it may have been here several months earlier. I have no idea what or how your government is handling this pandemic I don’t give a shit . Same can be said for you and your opinion
"they led us to believe" is suggesting they knew about it and kept that information from us for some reason.
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 08:58 AM 12-01-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Why does it matter when it was first here? It clearly wasn't already slowing down, which kind destroys any conclusions drawn from that.
It matters a great deal. Dr. Gupta of Oxford stated that there were two competing ideas. The one that got the most press was that Covid just arrived recently and was just starting. The other put forth by Gupta was that Covid had already been spreading for months and was for most a mild respiratory virus.

In the case that we were sold on by the media Covid was super deadly and needed harsh measures never before seen to fight it. In the other POV, Covid was a serious disease for some but one that could be dealt with by the standard pandemic playbook already established.

There is no evidence that any of the NPI's is flattening or doing anything to the curve. I have seen the case made that in New York and London the curve was already heading down BEFORE the lockdowns started...



Epidemics follow the same curve and this has been observed since the 1800's.

William Farr, a UK epidemiologist and early statistician. Farr recognised the importance of analysing death statistics and attributing causation. These vital statistics set out how to analyse mortality and epidemics.

in a letter to the Registrar General, In 1840, Farr set out his theories on the smallpox outbreak. His observations set out our current thinking on the epidemiology of infections.


Farr showed that epidemics rise and fall in roughly a bell-shaped curve (a normal distribution) shape.


Farr shows us that once peak infection has been reached then it will roughly follow the same symmetrical pattern on the downward slope. However, under testing and variations in testing regimes means we have no way of knowing when the peak of infections occurred.

In this situation, we should use the data on deaths to predict the peak. There is a predicted time lag from infection to COVID deaths of approximately 21 to 28 days.


https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-...-the-pandemic/
[Reply]
stumppy 09:04 AM 12-01-2020
:-)

Not this shit again.
[Reply]
Monticore 09:13 AM 12-01-2020
the same crowd that wants it to have been here in November is the same crowd that would freak out if they started looking into excess deaths during that same timeframe and attributing them to covid.
[Reply]
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