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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
DaFace 10:01 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Any attempt to get coronavirus herd immunity would lead to massive death tolls, Fauci warns

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/14/healt...day/index.html
Though I value his expert opinion, I've grown a bit frustrated at statements like this. Yes, we all agree that if 80-90% of people "got COVID" it would be a hugely shitty situation.

The questions are 1) what percentage of people have already gotten it but never known it and 2) what percentage are already immune due to cross immunity.
[Reply]
O.city 10:04 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Though I value his expert opinion, I've grown a bit frustrated at statements like this. Yes, we all agree that if 80-90% of people "got COVID" it would be a hugely shitty situation.

The questions are 1) what percentage of people have already gotten it but never known it and 2) what percentage are already immune due to cross immunity.
Just because we've seen how shit can get sideways, after digging in on the stuff about it, I'd like to correct #2 or specify.

Based on cross reactivity, it's not technically immunity in the sense that you won't contract the virus, moreso in that if you get it, it'll be more likely mild or asymptomatic.

It's somewhat semantical, but with this stuff you kind of have to be precise.
[Reply]
Donger 10:06 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Though I value his expert opinion, I've grown a bit frustrated at statements like this. Yes, we all agree that if 80-90% of people "got COVID" it would be a hugely shitty situation.

The questions are 1) what percentage of people have already gotten it but never known it and 2) what percentage are already immune due to cross immunity.
I asked this earlier, but upon what data is the HI percentage taken? I would imagine recovered and still alive.

If so, that's 2,844,000. That's .86% of the population.

Multiply by 10 per the CDC? 8.6%

Natural immunity? Who knows?
[Reply]
O.city 10:07 AM 08-14-2020
The fact that areas that have had a spike early have reopened in whatever fashion they have and not had problems has to have something to do with a certain amount of immunity.

I think it also means that while we may be at a certain level to keep it down, people are being cautious and distancing etc. We aren't yet at a level of wide open is available.

So its a bit skewed.
[Reply]
O.city 10:08 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
I asked this earlier, but upon what data is the HI percentage taken? I would imagine recovered and still alive.

If so, that's 2,844,000. That's .86% of the population.

Multiply by 10 per the CDC? 8.6%

Natural immunity? Who knows?
I'm drawing back a decade so I may be off here, but HI includes deaths as those are no longer potential vectors of infection.

Again, could be way off, but IIRC, it's all about a potential stop in infection.

But without it, you'd have to look at serology numbers and apparently even those are an undercount
[Reply]
Donger 10:12 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
I'm drawing back a decade so I may be off here, but HI includes deaths as those are no longer potential vectors of infection.

Again, could be way off, but IIRC, it's all about a potential stop in infection.

But without it, you'd have to look at serology numbers and apparently even those are an undercount
Yes, I suppose that the dead can't get infected. But nor do they interact with people who are still alive.

Unless zombies.
[Reply]
TLO 10:13 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
I'm drawing back a decade so I may be off here, but HI includes deaths as those are no longer potential vectors of infection.

Again, could be way off, but IIRC, it's all about a potential stop in infection.

But without it, you'd have to look at serology numbers and apparently even those are an undercount
Have you seen anything recently about how long IgG antibodies are detectable in the blood?
[Reply]
suzzer99 10:17 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
I just don't think so, if thats all we relax. We've not seen that else where really yet
Because kids have gone back to school yet in most places. You can be as vigilant as you want. But if your teenager brings it back to the house you're probably going to get it.
[Reply]
O.city 10:17 AM 08-14-2020
https://assets.researchsquare.com/fi...v1_stamped.pdf

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S...674(20)31008-4

This is good news, we can put to rest the "we're not immune, vaccines won't work etc" stuff.
[Reply]
O.city 10:18 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
Because kids have gone back to school yet.
They have all over Europe and some never didn't go to school in those places, so the whole "we have more spread now" doesn't hold up IMO.

We will see though.
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 10:18 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
https://assets.researchsquare.com/fi...v1_stamped.pdf

This is good news, we can put to rest the "we're not immune, vaccines won't work etc" stuff.
Things aren't going back to normal bro
[Reply]
suzzer99 10:19 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by stumppy:
I don't know how much I'd trust any info coming out of Belarus.
Same for Nicaragua. I'm on some Nicaraguan expat forums. It's a complete clusterfuck. No one has any idea what's happening.
[Reply]
suzzer99 10:23 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
They have all over Europe and some never didn't go to school in those places, so the whole "we have more spread now" doesn't hold up IMO.

We will see though.
Europe has like 20x less cases than us per capita. I'd feel a lot better about back to school here if we had that low of an outbreak.

The point is if we're saying 20-30% will get us to herd immunity, that's only because 70-80% are basically completely isolating, only going to the grocery store with masks, or outside activities. Like me basically. But if I had a teenager that was sent back to school - I'd be back in the more vulnerable to get it pool.

That HS in GA had to shut down after 2 days. The list of quarantined kids in Cherokee County is already a mile long.
[Reply]
O.city 10:30 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
Things aren't going back to normal bro
We shall see.
[Reply]
O.city 10:31 AM 08-14-2020
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
Europe has like 20x less cases than us per capita. I'd feel a lot better about back to school here if we had that low of an outbreak.

The point is if we're saying 20-30% will get us to herd immunity, that's only because 70-80% are basically completely isolating, only going to the grocery store with masks, or outside activities. Like me basically. But if I had a teenager that was sent back to school - I'd be back in the more vulnerable to get it pool.

That HS in GA had to shut down after 2 days. The list of quarantined kids in Cherokee County is already a mile long.
They do now, they didn't when they went back to school.

If they've gone back and cases have continually dropped, doesn't that say something ?

If that amount gets us to HI, that says nothing about the other whatever percent. You think 80% of the population is isolating?
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