I see many people mention trading down... Well here's your history lesson on why it's not likely and also not favorable.
Teams have only traded out of picks #31 or #32 a total of 5 times in the past 20 years.
Here they are:
2019 - 1-31 + 6-203 for 2-45 and 3-79. Falcons took Kaleb McGary, Rams ended up with Joejuan Williams and David Long.
2018 - 1-32 + 4-132 for 2-52 + 4-125 + 2019 2nd. Ravens took Lamar Jackson and Jaleel Scott, Eagles took Kemoko Turay, Avonte Maddox and then Miles Sanders in 2019
2017 - 1-31 for 2-34 + 4-111. 49ers took Reuben Foster. Seahawks took Cam Robinson and Tedric Thompson
2014 - 1-32 for 2-40 + 4-108. Vikings took Teddy Bridgewater. Seahawks took Kyle Van Noy and Cassius Marsh.
2012 - 1-31 + 4-126 for 2-36 + 4-101. Bucs took Doug Martin and Jared Crick. Broncos took Derek Wolfe and Omar Bolden.
As you can also see here, the team that traded out took significantly less talented players more often than not. I'd argue that the only team that may have gotten the upper hand was the Broncos in 2012. You can make a fair argument on Seattle over Minnesota in 2014 but Bridgewater wasn't bad, he was just broken, and while Van Noy has been steady, neither he nor Marsh has been great.
Also, you can see the pattern here that the best you're really going to get is a 4th round pick. No glorious hopes of returns that net you a 3rd rounder. While it's a high 4th, it's a 4th. We should not see mocks that entertain an extra 3rd rounder if you do project a trade-down because reality says it isn't happening. [Reply]
This might be a good year to trade down if we get stuck in no man's land like last year. Michael Penix Jr might be a guy teams want to trade more for at 32 to get the 5th year option. We could get more in a trade in that scenario. [Reply]
Seems to me that staying in the first round has an advantage rarely talked about as value.... We get another year of a rookie deal. Being able to keep George and McDuffie on a 5th year rookie deal will save our cap in a year or two. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RunKC:
This might be a good year to trade down if we get stuck in no man's land like last year. Michael Penix Jr might be a guy teams want to trade more for at 32 to get the 5th year option. We could get more in a trade in that scenario.
I agree. I’d love to see us trade with the falcons. I don’t know if they will want to pay the price to move up from #8 to get a top qb. I think this draft first three picks will be qbs and I don’t see the falcons paying that price. What would the falcons have to give up to move up to 32 to get penix? Here are the falcons picks. I like our options at the 43rd pick.
Originally Posted by kccrow:
The dude just turned 27 five days ago. I think a 3-year extension is fine. You know you're likely to cut the guy in that last year anyhow.
He's actually a month younger than Sneed.
If someone says "hey, he's not what I hoped he'd be in coverage so I don't think I want to extend him..." then I get that. I don't agree - that's not his job. But I at least see the argument.
But the age thing makes no sense to me for a guy who doesn't rely on explosive athleticism for his production. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kcbubb:
I agree. I’d love to see us trade with the falcons. I don’t know if they will want to pay the price to move up from #8 to get a top qb. I think this draft first three picks will be qbs and I don’t see the falcons paying that price. What would the falcons have to give up to move up to 32 to get penix? Here are the falcons picks. I like our options at the 43rd pick.
Originally Posted by Couch-Potato:
Click...We've hung up on you.
Good luck with Heinicke!
lol
You can't be completely out of the realm of reality with trade hopes. Honestly, if they gave you 43, 79, and 110 for 32 and 95, it would be a win in your favor on the JJ model and an exact match on the Hill model. It wouldn't be far off that. Certainly not a high 3rd off. You'd hang up and they'd laugh, honestly.
There isn't any more incentive for them to trade with you than there is for them to trade with Carolina. Carolina isn't taking a QB and in-draft trades between division rivals happen all the time. [Reply]
