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Washington DC and The Holy Land>Analyzing which states are likely to signal a victory/loss for Trump:
Direckshun 12:54 AM 10-14-2020
No polling methodology is bulletproof, but the 538 forecast is as solid as they come as a polling aggregation site.

They run 40,000 simulations several times a day and report how the results play out. And here's what it tells us: Biden is favored, but there are numerous scenarios where Trump can win.

Category 1. These are the red states he always wins when he wins in the simulations:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

That adds up to 126 EVs. He needs 144 more to get across the finish line.

Category 2. So, in every single simulation Trump wins, these are the swing states wins:

Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

That's 133 EVs, which means he needs to win every single one of these to have a shot at reelection.

Combined with the 126 EVs from the red states, that gives him 259 EVs. He needs 11 more to get across the finish line.

Category 3. The last remaining swing states that, according to the simulation, have the best chance of ending up as Trump states:

Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

According to the simulations, Nevada is the likeliest of these states to go Trump, which doesn't get him across the finish line. Same for Wisconsin, which doesn't give you the 11 EVs you need. You need Pennsylvania or Michigan to seal the deal, or you need Nevada and one of those, or Wisconsin and one of those.

He currently trails in Pennsylvania by a polling average of 7 points, and 8 points in Michigan.

Category 4. States he can lose and not worry about it (aside from the blue states):

Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Trump rarely wins these states in the simulations in which he wins.

Final analysis (TL;DR):

For Trump to win:


The easiest shortcut there is Category 3. If Trump wins Pennsylvania or Michigan, he's probably winning reelection.

He can get away with losing both, however, if he sweeps Wisconsin (polling average has him behind 9 points) and Nevada (6 points).

And keep in mind, he needs to sweep the Category 2 states. He simply doesn't win re-election without every single one of those states going for him.

For Trump to lose:

A loss in any of the Category 2 states signals that he's almost certainly going to lose.
[Reply]
Donger 11:19 AM Yesterday
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Had Clinton winning by 2 points. :-)
She did...

:-)
[Reply]
Merde Furieux 11:25 AM Yesterday

[Reply]
Hammock Parties 11:28 AM Yesterday
Originally Posted by Donger:
She did...

:-)
Yes. Hence Rasmussen is a legit pollster, despite everyone on the left screaming about how terrible it is.
[Reply]
Donger 11:31 AM Yesterday
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Yes. Hence Rasmussen is a legit pollster, despite everyone on the left screaming about how terrible it is.
They had Clinton up by 2 in 2016?
[Reply]
Direckshun 04:27 PM Yesterday
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
And? That is effectively meaningless. We're comparing polls, not candidates.

Even after the letter dropped, the polls were mostly full of shit, even if less so.
After the letter dropped, the polls showed the race narrowing aggressively.
[Reply]
Direckshun 04:27 PM Yesterday
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Had Clinton winning by 2 points. :-)
Interesting. What do they have the race at now?
[Reply]
BucEyedPea 04:49 PM Yesterday
Biden campaign manager has admitted that national polls are "inflated" in Biden's favor—that they are not ahead by double digits.

Jen O’Malley Dillon said:

“Please take note of the fact that we are not ahead by double digits.… Those are inflated national public polling numbers.”

This followed a statement O’Malley Dillon made two days earlier in a three-page memo obtained by Fox News:

“The reality is that this race is far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest.”

Democracy Institute claims Trump is ahead of Biden in key battleground states by calculating in shy Trump supporters.

Has to be a reason Obama has had to come out and campaign.


https://www.theepochtimes.com/we-are...d_3542817.html

https://democracyinstitute.org/only-...olls-director/
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 05:03 PM Yesterday
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
After the letter dropped, the polls showed the race narrowing aggressively.
Michigan



Wisconsin



Pennsylvania



The polls were full of shit. Consistently so, letter or not, before Oct. 28, after Oct. 28.
[Reply]
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