Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Look at their 'spread' graph with the little dots bouncing around. Sound theory, right? But those dots don't behave like people. They bounce around erratically. In real life, that's not how people work.
We know from behavior research that people are shockingly insular when it gets down to it. Not all of them - truly transient types bounce around like those dots. But the overwhelming majority of people just don't. They stay in roughly similar behavior patterns; between thinly transcribed lines, so to speak. And when that happens, the majority of the randomized collisions in those models don't happen as even a little bit of thinning starts.
So the impact of ANY level of social distancing was wildly understated, as was the impact of people getting sick and/or voluntarily isolating.
People behave irrationally oftentimes, but in a strangely predictable way. They don't just behave erratically. So any model that was built on that premise (i.e. any of them that leaned hard into exponential growth - i.e. all of them) has failed spectacularly.
Now if I'm one of those guys, I say "sure, we underestimated the impact of 'x, y and z' social distancing measures, but we DIDN'T underestimate what would've happened had we done nothing at all. So we clearly still needed to do something and our models proved that..."
To which I still would've told them to fuck off and die because there are very very few people who said to do nothing differently at all. What that response does is completely ignore any concept of diminishing marginal returns. At some point your model needs to not suck giant bawls so we can figure out where these returns maximize and we can start to try to match up points of intersection to some useful degree.
Even taking that response at face value, we have no idea what degrees of social distancing are actually yielding positive returns. Because, y'know, we never stood back for a second and took stock of anything before we did the next thing.
Just spectacular science and modeling all around, really. [Reply]
I'm sorry for the guy and hope he recovers fully but...... his opinion that herd immunity would resolve the virus faster than social distancing was insane.
Purposefully mocking the threat, shaking hands with known coronavius positive people to make his point that it wasn't serious put more people in jeopardy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Tnerped:
Virus is spreading in my town now and everyone wants to come to the post office evidently. We've had a line out the door since we opened and I don't see it slowing down. Pretty sure this thing has already gotten into my office too.
Never had problems before last week with having a tightness in my chest, fatigue, and an atypical heart beat.
But no coughing and fever so I guess I'm good.
Could also be Anxiety, This could be freaking you out a little bit. Like they said you should get checked, but im willing to bet anxiety might be it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kcxiv:
Could also be Anxiety, This could be freaking you out a little bit. Like they said you should get checked, but im willing to bet anxiety might be it.
I was going to mention this as well. I'm very hyper aware of bodily sensations as it is, but I know I've been anxious/stressed/depressed over the past month or so. All of those things can lend to a variety of physical symptoms. I haven't felt like "myself" for almost a month now. Things have improved some, but it will take a while for things to go back to normal.
Good idea to be checked out though regardless [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
I'm sorry for the guy and hope he recovers fully but...... his opinion that herd immunity would resolve the virus faster than social distancing was insane.
Purposefully mocking the threat, shaking hands with known coronavius positive people to make his point that it wasn't serious put more people in jeopardy.
Originally Posted by kcxiv:
Could also be Anxiety, This could be freaking you out a little bit. Like they said you should get checked, but im willing to bet anxiety might be it.
I also suspected this could be it. Had to put my dog down late February and with that came a sort of existential crisis. Paired with all the covid news, it has given me a few restless nights. I'm going to make an appointment today. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Tnerped:
I also suspected this could be it. Had to put my dog down late February and with that came a sort of existential crisis. Paired with all the covid news, it has given me a few restless nights. I'm going to make an appointment today.
Yep, sounds like some stress/anxiety. Good on you for making the appointment though. Best to play it safe. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Tnerped:
I'm going to make an appointment today.
I'm sorry if my post added to your anxiety, man. I just worry about people and I want you to get checked out and hopefully everything is okay. Better safe than sorry. [Reply]
