Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
I’m getting a real sense around here that people think this thing is beat. I know more people were out this morning & I’ve been told that state workers are going back to work next week.
It isn't.
But like O.City and others said (using the mighty power of 'hindsight', I guess) - people aren't going to just sit inside for months. It was never realistic. A complete lockdown of indefinite duration had the staying power of a fart in a hurricane.
Yes, people are going back out. They were ALWAYS going to go back out. Which was why a staggered and measured approach was always preferable in areas where it was feasible.
So, y'know, 80% of the country.
The heavy-handed and poorly-tailored response to this will create significant problems as we progress. And the public response will be less and less robust. And in the end, we'll be as bad or worse off for it and over a much longer timeline. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
But again, that's exactly my point.
Why COULDN'T we have tried that in areas where they are well suited for it? Boone County would've been perfect. A relatively young population that's quite diverse because of the hospital/university staff. We have a HUGE medical presence here; almost 20% of the state's ICU capacity despite only having about 180K people. There was virtually no spread at all.
This would've been a perfect spot to take measured, tailored approaches and let them breathe for a bit. And there are areas like ours in every state in the union.
I'm not saying do that everywhere. I'm not saying take NY's approach everywhere. I'm saying the opposite of both things.
I've mentioned this before, but my buddy who went to The Citadel and did a couple tours and has had a nice little Army career always emphasized this - the guy who survives is the guy that takes that half a heartbeat when shit is going crazy to simply take stock of what is happening before he acts.
Nobody ever took a half a heartbeat to take a deep breath and move forward from there. Everyone was just racing to take the next wild swing and in the process we missed an invaluable opportunity to formulate a long-term plan. And we may have cut off our noses to spite our faces if all we've done in those areas is leave a large carrier population who will still be there to be part of the next spike in cases if we try to open things back up.
This attempt to force a top down approach across the board on everyone was simply a failure on several levels.
I'm hopeful that the quicker we shut everything down, the quicker we're gonna be to opening it back up again. If you follow Dr Gottlieb he has some good info on it. [Reply]
I've been thinking this is likely the solution for sports near term--complete sequestration of teams and associated personnel. Will players be willing to separate from families for that long? Also requires frequent rapid results testing. Interesting to see they think the capacity for that will be there that soon. [Reply]
Originally Posted by mac459:
Step away from this, you are too emotional about all this. Anytime someone disagrees with you, you make up positions they are not even making. To argue with them.
You admit over and over you don’t know enough about this or that subject, but you still make comments on them. You admit you have overreacted, but then double down on it.
You admitted you didn’t read DJs posts, but then continued to argue with him about what he was saying.
Step away for a day, relax, quit getting so emotional about it. Emotion is fine but when it causes you to repeatedly step on your dick, it’s doing you no good.
No doubt you right I've definitely made some mistakes while posting in here and overreacted at times. But DJ has constantly insulted me and I do have a right to defend myself. I probably took it a little too far but it is what it is. I'm not perfect. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Overkill is a common approach in medicine , (resection/chemo/radiation) might not always be needed in some situations but I would choose overkill every time.
I have seen people choose total bilateral mastectomy because they tested positive for the breast cancer gene only and I have see a lot of people die because they choose a lumpectomy instead of mastectomy .
And now I'm repeating myself.
The insistence on viewing this strictly as a medical question when there are sociological, psychological and yes, economic considerations in play is what's creating half-cocked decisions.
This isn't something that can be addressed as a strictly medical question because for the overwhelming majority of Americans, it will have very little medical impact on them. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
I'm hopeful that the quicker we shut everything down, the quicker we're gonna be to opening it back up again. If you follow Dr Gottlieb he has some good info on it.
If we can open back up and stay open, I'd be inclined to agree with you.
But man, I just don't see that as possible. This is going to need to be rolled in slowly and likely rolled back out again at least once or twice.
And we're simply no closer to prepared for that from a decision lens standpoint than we were a month ago. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball:
Sports without fans will suck absolute monkey nuts...especially baseball all played in Arizona. Not buying the "better than nothing!" The crowds are the difference makers to me.
A significant number of college football bowl games now are essentially just made for TV events for ESPN with very sparse fan attendance.
Does anyone care? No
People still watch on TV, bettors still bet, etc. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
It makes you wonder, if this thing fizzles out pretty quick and in general it looks like an overreaction, how is that going to affect people's actions the next time a bug hits in 2 years? Obviously we SHOULD be better prepared for the next one.
You said a million times we wouldn't come close to 5k deaths so yeah... [Reply]
But like O.City and others said (using the mighty power of 'hindsight', I guess) - people aren't going to just sit inside for months. It was never realistic. A complete lockdown of indefinite duration had the staying power of a fart in a hurricane.
Yes, people are going back out. They were ALWAYS going to go back out. Which was why a staggered and measured approach was always preferable in areas where it was feasible.
So, y'know, 80% of the country.
The heavy-handed and poorly-tailored response to this will create significant problems as we progress. And the public response will be less and less robust. And in the end, we'll be as bad or worse off for it and over a much longer timeline.
We'll see. As we've gotten more info, i'm hopeful that it won't be.
I just got off the phone with a buddy that i went to dental school with who's been in an oral surgery residency (seriously 6 more years after we graduated dental school in 14, so he did 4 of college, 4 of dental school, 6 more of an oral surgery residency that has included basically med school, fuck that noise) who's currently in Dallas at the hospital they took JFK to. He's had some interactions with this stuff. He had a co resident get it and has been in ICU but is out now improving.
He's tight with one of the big infectious disease doc's at the hospital. He thinks we're getting new info that there are some things with this we just didn't know before that will be helpful. He couldn't really go into any more on that, but maybe I'll hear later. [Reply]